The United States is changing its external governance model as a result of military operations. What you need to know

The American military campaigns in Venezuela and Iran demonstrate the ambitions of the United States to maintain its dominance in the world, even despite the presence of new major players such as China. If earlier the United States carried out operations to change power in other states by the hands of opposition forces, now US President Donald Trump is not shy about direct intervention and sovereignty of other countries. However, there are differences in the goals of such campaigns. Why tactics have changed and what goals the United States is pursuing with its military operations is in the Izvestia article.

Change of ideology

• Conservatives, represented by Trump, are not trying to unite states with a common ideology, but expect to subjugate them individually to the influence of the United States. However, the reduction of Washington's presence abroad does not mean that the United States is ready to give up its dominant role in the world. They just began to see this role differently.

• At a time when the world is divided, the United States is looking for a new format of dominance and a new way of being present in other countries. The Republicans had previously rejected the institutions of "soft power", which included the work of the USAID agency and grant systems, as costly and ineffective. The experience of American military interventions cannot be called successful either.

This conflict will stretch: Iran's missile arsenal is capable of expanding the conflict

Israel is also scaling up military operations — it has launched a ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

• The US invasion of Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011) in order to overthrow the ruling regime did not ensure the loyalty of the local population to the United States. The countries plunged into instability for many years, and radical groups seized power in the territory. Trump himself claimed in 2016 that $3 trillion and thousands of American military lives were spent on the invasion of Iraq, and the United States could not even compensate for these costs with Iraqi oil.

External governance of Venezuela

• Now, the US tactics seem to be limited to obtaining economic rather than political control of territories that fall within their area of interest. This happened in Venezuela, where in early January, the United States captured and deported Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. The US president later admitted that his goal was to gain control of the world's largest oil fields, but the justification for the invasion was to accuse the Venezuelan president of dictatorship and involvement in drug trafficking. In August 2025, the Trump administration offered $50 million for information about Maduro.

• Despite the expectations of the American press that the Bolivarian Republic will now be led by one of the representatives of the Venezuelan opposition in exile, power has passed to Vice President and Maduro's associate Delcy Rodriguez, who is called a tougher politician than her predecessor. Trump openly supported Rodriguez and said she would lead the country as long as she followed Washington's instructions.

Counter resource: the crisis in the Middle East slows down the dialogue on Ukraine

Kiev also risks losing some of its military aid — in order to regain the West's attention, it may step up provocations.

• But Trump does not seem to be managing the Bolivarian Republic very well, and he intends to use all opportunities to "push through" the new leadership of Venezuela. According to media reports, the US administration is preparing to charge Delcy Rodriguez with corruption and money laundering for the period from 2021 to 2025. The prosecution should make Rodriguez more manageable and provide Trump with reliable control over the republic's resources.

• Trump also expects Venezuela to extradite Maduro's wealthy allies to the United States — Alex Saab, a native of Colombia, who is considered one of the most influential financiers in the Chavez movement, and media mogul Raul Gorrin. Washington expects their testimony to strengthen the prosecution's line against Maduro, but now Saab and Gorrin are in the custody of the Venezuelan intelligence service SEBIN, and the country's legislation prohibits the extradition of Venezuelan citizens.

Attacks on Iran

• In Iran, Trump probably expected to repeat the success of the Venezuelan operation, which he called "ideal," moreover, due to instability in the Middle East region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela increased oil production and fuel supplies to Europe, which brought direct benefits to the United States as an intermediary. But the situation in Iran, which has been living under sanctions since 1979 and has been waging a proxy war with Israel by sponsoring Islamist groups on the territory of other states (we discussed in more detail who is fighting whom in this conflict here), is significantly different from what the United States faced in Venezuela.

Reaching Ecuador: why the United States launched a military operation in the republic

The fight against drug cartels can be a cover for establishing control over oil, copper and gold deposits.

• The attack on Iran and the assassination of the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, also pursued the goal of overthrowing the regime, but the Iranian political system is not "tied" to the personality of the head of state, so the assassination of the leader did not prevent the Iranians from continuing to resist. Khamenei was not very popular in Iran during his lifetime, but the fact that he was killed by a rocket attack with his family in the holy month of Ramadan made him a martyr, and may become an additional factor that will unite the country against the United States.

• The operation in Iran has not become lightning fast, and the United States is already incurring serious costs, losing expensive weapons and people. The crisis in the Middle East has already affected ordinary Americans, who feel it in rising gasoline prices. All this risks affecting the Republicans' ratings on the eve of the congressional elections. Another blow to Trump's reputation was the statement by Democratic Senator Mark Warner, who said that the timing of the operation was not the result of calculations by the United States itself, but was actually dictated by Israel.

However, there is already a trend in these two American operations: the United States does not just want to change the regime by bringing its protege to power, as it used to be, but is ready to work with a loyal but legitimate politician in its country. Both Venezuela and Iran are oil—rich countries, and therefore it is very likely that the American administration will be satisfied with any government that will pursue profitable deals for the White House and keep calm in its country. The intervention is not so much political as economic in nature.

They took over: the United States is preparing the ground for a coup in Cuba

Why Havana may become the next target for an American attack, although it does not have serious natural resources

What will it lead to

• The idea of external governance of states that may be of strategic importance to the United States through economics has become one of Trump's defining policies, although he does not yet have a vision for this governance. He probably plans to implement a similar scheme with Cuba, Greenland, Colombia, Brazil and Canada: the US president has repeatedly stated that he sees Canada and Greenland as new states and has threatened Latin American countries.

• However, it will be more difficult for him to cope with Cuba: there is currently no figure in its head so significant that its elimination could make a difference. Previously, such a person was Fidel Castro, but he died in 2016. His 94-year-old brother, Raul Castro, has considerable influence, but it is impossible to compare him with the role of Ali Khamenei in Iran. A military operation against Cuba will also be difficult to carry out due to its close ties with Russia, including in the military sphere.

• In general, the ambitions of the United States towards other countries fit into the general political course, which was maintained under Democratic presidents. The only difference is that Trump declares his goals openly, does not hesitate to use weapons and hardly masks his intentions. In addition, he openly says that his goal is financial gain. But the operation in Iran risks being delayed and becoming a Waterloo for the American president, since the United States does not have a more or less loyal figure to replace power in the republic, and the IAEA has confirmed that Iran did not have nuclear weapons, depriving Washington of the main justification for its invasion of the Islamic Republic.

• The operation in Iran undermines not only Trump's rating, but also the chances of election for Republicans. The primaries that began on March 3 showed a high turnout of supporters of the Democratic Party, which for the first time got a chance to win congressional elections in traditionally Republican Texas.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Vladimir Mozhegov, an American political scientist;
• Ilya Kravchenko, an American political scientist and RISI expert.