Block reflection: NATO is not ready to abandon expansion to the east

Europe rejects Russia's proposal to consolidate the rejection of NATO's eastward expansion. Britain, Germany and France support the policy of "open doors" to the North Atlantic bloc, officials and diplomatic sources of these countries told Izvestia. At the same time, the US authorities declare in their statements their readiness to stop accepting new members. Russia had previously demanded, among other things, the cancellation of the decisions of the Bucharest 2008 NATO summit on the possible admission of Ukraine to the alliance. Experts believe that in the coming years, the bloc will develop new formats of interaction without official membership in order not to provide mandatory security guarantees.

Europe is not ready to abandon the expansion of NATO

One of the main reasons for the crisis in relations between Russia and Western countries is the approach of NATO to the borders of the Russian Federation. After the collapse of the USSR, the North Atlantic Alliance was expanded by many European states, including the Baltic states. Back in December 2021, Moscow proposed to the bloc to abandon further expansion, move infrastructure to the borders of 1997 and provide mutual security guarantees. However, this option was then ruled out in Brussels.

The Russian Federation's demand to NATO to abandon expansion to the east remains relevant even now, Izvestia wrote earlier. This is directly related to the settlement of the situation in Ukraine — Moscow insists on Kiev's non-aligned status. Therefore, the decision of the Bucharest NATO summit in 2008, when Ukraine and Georgia were promised membership in the alliance, must be reversed.

However, the leading European powers of the North Atlantic Alliance do not intend to abandon the policy of "open doors". Paris is guided by Article 10 of the NATO charter, which states that the bloc can invite any European state to join, French Ambassador to Moscow Nicolas de Riviere told Izvestia.

— The large-scale conflict that has been going on in Ukraine since 2022 demonstrates NATO's contribution to the defense of Europe. International law, the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity are key in Europe and beyond. All countries have the right to determine their own security arrangements without foreign interference. As for the applications of specific countries to join NATO, France's position is based on the specifics of each individual case, taking into account the security interests of France, Europe and its allies," the diplomat said.

The UK supports Ukraine's accession to NATO and believes that Moscow cannot prohibit other countries from joining the alliance, a diplomatic source in London told Izvestia. Germany holds a similar position.

— Germany remains committed to the decisions of the Bucharest NATO Summit in 2008, as well as the Vilnius Summit in 2023. Moscow cannot veto joining the alliance,— a diplomatic source told Izvestia.

It should be recalled that it was in the final declaration of the Bucharest meeting that the provision was fixed that Ukraine and Georgia would become NATO members in the future, and at the meeting in the capital of Lithuania, the leaders of the bloc announced an invitation to Ukraine after reaching an agreement between the allies and fulfilling a number of conditions by Kiev.

The United States has previously been among the main supporters of the expansion of the North Atlantic bloc. However, with the arrival of the new administration, the position of the White House has changed. In December 2025, President Donald Trump announced that he did not see many candidates for NATO membership. According to him, in the past there has always been an understanding that Ukraine would not join the alliance. The new assessments were also included in the updated national security strategy of the United States. "Putting an end to the perception of NATO as an ever—expanding alliance and preventing this perception from becoming reality," is how the document describes one of Washington's new priorities.

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Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, believes that expansion leads to the expansion of NATO borders and an increase in conflict risks. Therefore, the alliance is likely to develop new partnership tools and programs without automatic entry, in order not to commit to protection, but to use the territories of those who wish to join the bloc.

At the same time, normalization of relations between Russia and NATO is hardly possible — the key demands of the parties remain mutually exclusive, added Ekaterina Antyukhova, professor at the MGIMO Department of World Political Processes at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The fundamental contradictions lie in the incompatibility of the basic positions on the architecture of European security. The NATO leadership considers Russia to be the main strategic threat, and Moscow sees risks from the bloc.

Alexander Alyoshin, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, believes that relations between Russia and NATO can return to normal only after the end of the Ukrainian conflict and the signing of a series of agreements on European security issues. In the near future, the outlines of such documents are not visible due to the harsh anti-Russian position of the leading European members of NATO.

Who can join NATO in the coming years

Officially, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine are on their way to membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. The self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo, whose independence is not recognized by Serbia, Russia, China and a number of other countries, is also talking about its desire to join the bloc. Among them are several NATO members — Greece, Spain, Slovakia and Romania. The country's admission to NATO requires the unanimous consent of all allies, so Pristina cannot begin the integration process. At the same time, there are still military facilities of the alliance countries on its territory.

Every NATO candidate country has intractable contradictions that actually block entry into the bloc. For example, the action plan for NATO membership was provided to BiH back in 2010, but entry into the alliance was blocked by Republika Srpska (entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina). With the current political structure of the country, overcoming this resistance seems unrealistic, Ekaterina Antyukhova noted in an interview with Izvestia.

— Georgia's attitude towards joining NATO is very contradictory. The current authorities have initiated a public discussion about the need for the country to join the alliance. The question today is whether Georgia needs membership in principle," the expert said.

The country's leadership has embarked on a course to mitigate contradictions with Russia and balance between it and NATO. Therefore, the resumption of discussions on joining the alliance does not correspond to Georgia's interests today. The situation may change in the event of a change in the country's leadership, Alexander Alyoshin told Izvestia.

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The movement of the bloc to the east may affect not only Ukraine, but also other post-Soviet countries.

Tbilisi's integration into the bloc is also negatively affected by the deterioration of relations with the EU, which accuses the country's authorities of "rolling back democracy." In response, Georgia officially announced the suspension of negotiations on joining the EU until 2028 and the rejection of European budget grants. There are no prospects for normalization of relations yet.

Ukraine's claims to join NATO are viewed with skepticism not only in the United States, but also in Hungary and Slovakia. Bratislava and Budapest are confident that Kiev does not meet the criteria for membership, and its entry into the alliance will lead to a direct military clash with Russia. After Ukraine blocked oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, the position of the Hungarian and Slovak governments only became tougher. Therefore, Kiev has recently recognized that joining NATO is unrealistic and is asking for security guarantees instead.

Earlier, the media reported that other countries, including Belgium, Slovenia and Spain, are against Ukraine's invitation to NATO. By the way, Germany was also included in this list. In other words, Germany's refusal to agree to Russia's demands does not automatically mean that Berlin supports Ukraine's accession to NATO.

One way or another, the issue of Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Moldova joining NATO is being raised. However, in all these countries, public opinion tends to favor maintaining neutrality. In addition, Moldova will not be able to begin integration into the alliance due to the problem of Transnistria and the opposition of Gagauzia. Cyprus' application will be blocked by Turkey, as the issue of Northern Cyprus has not been resolved.