The expert assessed the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on oil prices

The escalation of the conflict over Iran has thrown the oil market off balance, but the scenario of a sharp price spike to $100-120 per barrel has not yet been realized. Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's Customer Support and Sales department, told Izvestia about this on March 4.

According to him, the geopolitical premium is already partially embedded in the quotes. In the short term, the base price range for Brent crude oil is in the range of $80-85 per barrel.

"With increased escalation and threats to the mining or transportation infrastructure, quotes may go above $90 and gain a foothold in a new range. However, sustainable growth is possible only if significant volumes of supply actually fall out," the expert noted.

While there are no such factors on the market, some investors are taking profits, which holds back further price increases.

According to Schneiderman, expectations of a slowdown in the global economy remain an additional constraint. Historically, the rise in oil prices above $95-100 per barrel increases recession risks for the largest consumers of energy resources — the United States, China and the European Union (EU) countries. This reduces speculative demand and prevents the market from actively setting up extreme scenarios for price growth.

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A shortage of supplies can lead to a price spike of over $1,000.

The expert also noted that the dynamics of the ruble depends not only on oil prices. The exchange rate of the Russian currency is influenced by sanctions restrictions, discounts on Russian oil, the specifics of settlements on foreign trade transactions, the parameters of the budget rule and the structure of currency flows.

According to him, even with an increase in the cost of Brent to $ 85-90 per barrel, the strengthening of the ruble may be moderate.

"Short—term fluctuations are possible, but there is currently no stable trend towards a sharp strengthening of the ruble without additional factors," Schneiderman stressed.

Maxim Chirkov, an associate professor at the State University of Management, told Izvestia on March 2 that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could lead to serious consequences for the global economy, primarily for the oil and gas markets. According to him, up to 20% of the world's oil supplies and more than 30% of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so any disruptions can have a significant impact on the global energy market.

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