The economist assessed the prospects for deposits and bonds in 2026

By the end of 2025, ruble deposits became one of the most profitable instruments, second only to gold, bonds with A credit rating of "A" and "AA", as well as federal loan bonds (OFZ). Andrey Melashchenko, Chief Economist of Renaissance Capital, told RBC on March 3.

According to him, corporate bond yields were supported by high coupons and revaluation of securities against the background of the beginning of the cycle of lowering the key rate of the Bank of Russia. Depositors could expect higher interest rates only in early 2025 and subsequent reinvestment of interest, as deposit rates have been declining for most of the year. Traditionally, as the expert noted, their dynamics outstrip the actual easing of monetary policy.

According to the regulator, the maximum interest rate in the ten largest banks dropped below 14.5% in early February. At the same time, according to the economist, real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, remain positive. The rhetoric of the Bank of Russia about its intention to maintain a tight monetary policy for a long time indicates that in 2026 deposits will continue to serve as a capital preservation tool.

At the same time, as the key rate continues to decrease and at an expected level of about 12% by the end of the year, the attractiveness of stock market instruments increases, the profitability of which may exceed deposit rates on the horizon of 2026. Tax benefits remain an additional advantage, Melashchenko added.

Profit, but: in seven years, only gold and deposits have generated income above inflation

What is the reason for this and what can you earn in 2026?

In addition, money market funds, whose returns are linked to money market rates, remain relevant even in the context of policy easing. Their income is comparable to deposits for a period of 3-12 months, while interest is accrued daily, which, as Melashchenko emphasized, ensures reinvestment and high liquidity without the risk of loss of income in case of early withdrawal of funds.

Over a longer horizon, fixed coupon bonds may be an alternative to deposits. They allow you to receive coupon income and expect the price to rise as the key rate decreases. Taking into account the increased credit risks, preference, according to the expert, should be given to securities with the highest rating, including OFZs, which are highly sensitive to rate changes.

Also, given the likely growth in consumer demand and an increase in imports in the second half of 2026, investors may purchase foreign currency bonds as a hedging tool against the risks of a weakening ruble. According to the expert, the expanded list of tax benefits remains a separate advantage of the stock market. Unlike deposits, where only a non-taxable minimum of interest is applied, investors can take advantage of the benefits of long-term ownership of securities and the advantages of an individual investment account, including exemption from personal income tax if the established conditions are met.

Thus, in 2026, deposits will remain attractive as a conservative instrument with returns above inflation. However, bonds and money market funds can provide comparable or higher returns with greater flexibility and additional tax advantages, the expert concluded.

The bet has played out: budget receipts from the deposit tax have tripled

Why have deposits become the financial pillar of the treasury, and for how long will it last?

On February 24, it was reported that against the background of a decrease in the key interest rate and a drop in deposit yields, Russians are actively transferring funds from bank deposits to investment instruments, according to data from the Financial Services of the Moscow Stock Exchange. In January 2026, 3.06% of the funds released after deposits were closed were allocated to investment products, almost three times more than a year earlier, when the figure was 1.06%. In February, the trend continued: in less than a month, the flow reached 1.84%, which exceeded the average monthly level of 2025.

On February 13, the Central Bank lowered its key rate to 15.5% per annum. The regulator stressed that the acceleration of price growth in January was due to one-time factors, and after their exhaustion, inflation will begin to decline again.

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