Russian companies retain interest in the UAE amid escalation in the Middle East

After the start of a special military operation in Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become a key foreign jurisdiction for Russian business. According to Daniil Egorov, head of the Federal Tax Service, in November 2025, the assets of Russian entrepreneurs in the Emirates exceeded 1 trillion rubles. In addition to the UAE, there is a growing interest in other Persian Gulf countries — Oman, Bahrain and Qatar. This was reported by RBC on March 3.

Against this background, the military escalation in the region — attacks on US facilities in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, as well as attacks on infrastructure — raised questions about the prospects of business. However, consultants who support Russian projects in the region do not record massive capital outflows or panic among clients.

Pavel Berezhnoy, Senior banker at Skyfort Capital, notes that the region has historically been perceived by investors as a high-risk area, which is initially taken into account in capital allocation strategies. According to him, wealthy clients hedge possible threats in advance, and there are practically no alternatives with a comparable level of service and tax environment for Russian capital now. At the same time, there is a pause in the launch of new capital-intensive projects rather than the curtailment of existing ones.

Ivan Tikhonenok, Head of Banking Practice at Amond & Smith International Law Group, talks about reputational costs for the Emirates.

"Due to the shutdown of airports and seaports, logistics and communication chains have been disrupted. At the same time, at the moment there are no refusals on the part of clients, both in relation to already launched transactions and new ones. There is no panic at all," he said.

The East is a big deal: Iran's response has upset the plans of the United States and Israel

The Islamic Republic proved to be more stable than the Pentagon and the IDF had hoped.

Maria Nikonova, a partner at PGP Tax & Legal, believes that it is not the fact of geopolitical risk itself that is more important for business, but the government's response to the crisis. According to her assessment, the UAE demonstrates manageability and institutional stability, which supports investor confidence.

Some consultants note short-term difficulties: flight cancellations, switching offices to remote mode, postponing meetings and transactions. However, there is no mass relocation or closure of projects. Sergey Nazarkin, Managing Partner of NSV Consulting, admits that with a prolonged escalation, some of the capital may consider alternative hubs, such as Singapore or Hong Kong, but so far there is no such trend.

Short-term volatility is possible in the real estate market. According to experts, some of the tenants are already contacting the owners with requests for a temporary reduction in rates, citing interruptions in logistics and limited use of space. At the same time, the shortage of high-quality office space in Dubai and other key locations is holding back a sharp drop in prices.

Market participants agree that the current crisis is more of a stress test. Russian business is already deeply integrated into the infrastructure of the UAE and the Gulf countries, and in the absence of direct involvement of the monarchies themselves in a full-scale conflict, interest in the region will remain. Experts emphasize that for many companies this is not a matter of choice, but a strategic need to diversify and maintain an international presence.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation in Iran. US President Donald Trump called it the goal of protecting the American people. Israel and the United States have carried out numerous attacks on military and civilian targets in Iran, including a school in the city of Minab. The largest Iranian cities, including Tehran, were hit. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has died.

In response, Iran launched Operation True Promise 4 and attacked American military bases in the Middle East, as well as Israeli cities. Tehran is attacking the Persian Gulf countries. According to the Red Crescent, at least 555 people were killed in Iran itself due to Israeli and US strikes.

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