Experts assessed Trump's foreign policy goals and prospects for pressure on Cuba

Political scientist and publicist Georgy Dibrov admitted in an interview with Izvestia on March 2 that Cuba could be the next target after Iran. According to him, the intensification of the foreign policy agenda is related to the electoral objectives of the Republican Party.

"As practice shows, the administration of US President Donald Trump operates on the principle of "carrot and stick," but they understand that the "stick" is their main tool for final resolution of issues. Venezuela and Iran held many meetings during the negotiations, but eventually received missile strikes on their territory. With statements about the willingness and initiatives of the opposing sides to negotiate, Trump pushes them to negotiate, but in positions between complete transfer of power and complete subordination, which means the same thing in different formulations," the expert said.

He also said that the main indicator of "success" for Trump is a complete transition under the geopolitical influence of the United States and the transfer of all resources to them, from energy to information.

Speaking about the possible consequences for the region, the political scientist recalled the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which declared the Western Hemisphere the sphere of exclusive interests of the United States. According to him, this logic increases attention to Latin American countries, especially in the context of their interaction with China and Russia. At the same time, Dibrov stressed that the norms of the United Nations (UN) enshrine the principle of equality of states and non-interference in internal affairs.

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Nikita Setov, Deputy General Director of KG Polylog for GR, gave a similar assessment. According to him, for the White House, the Cuban issue is part of the foreign policy framework, in which Trump systematically operates with the category of external threats.

"In this design, Cuba is considered as one of the directions of pressure and possible regime change," the expert noted.

At the same time, in his opinion, it is premature to talk about the Cuban direction as a practical priority, since the conflict over Iran is already creating serious costs for the United States and limiting the resource for opening a new track. In these circumstances, the further intensification of the Cuban issue will directly depend on the dynamics of the situation around Tehran.

On the same day, The Atlantic magazine reported that Trump considers Cuba his next target after Iran. He said Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in talks with Cuban leaders at a "very high level" to potentially "make a deal."

On February 27, Reuters reported that the American president told reporters at the White House that the United States was considering the possibility of a so-called friendly takeover of Cuba, while stressing that such a scenario could be realized in the context of the current crisis on the island and as part of negotiations with Havana.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla on February 18 that he considered the new restrictions against the island nation unacceptable. The Head of State also noted that Russia and Cuba have special historical relations.

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