The political scientist admitted a serious struggle in Iran after the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei

After the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as a result of an attack by Israel and the United States, the Islamic Republic stands at a crossroads. This was reported to Izvestia on March 1 by Iranian political analyst Ahmad Vakhshiteh.

According to him, there are four scenarios for the development of events. The first is the beginning of the civil war and the rise of separatist movements. The second is the consolidation of society in the face of an external threat. The third scenario is a continuation of Khamenei's course, and the fourth scenario is an attempt to normalize relations between Iran, Israel and the United States.

According to the political scientist, the stakes for the Iranian government are high now, because after the attack it can either survive or be defeated, causing maximum damage to Tel Aviv and Washington.

"In general, we are talking about the process of regime change. But the key question is in which direction Iran will go. A serious struggle for the country's future may unfold between reformers and monarchists. A military coup by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is also possible, but it would be extremely risky and probably would not be allowed by the United States and Israel," Vakhshiteh said.

He noted that the leadership of the Islamic Republic had made at least one serious mistake.: Tehran should not have attacked the territories of neighboring countries – Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This, in the expert's opinion, could lead to an uncontrolled escalation and leave Iran without allies.

The political scientist recalled that the goal of Israel and the United States is not just to get rid of the intractable leader of Iran, but to dismantle the entire socio-political system of the country. If Tel Aviv and Washington succeed in realizing their plans, Iran will stop following an anti-Israeli and anti—American course, which can greatly change the balance of power in the region.

What will happen to Iran after Khamenei's death? Analysis

Khamenei's death became known on March 1. Khamenei was killed early on Saturday morning, February 28, while performing work duties at his residence. Against this background, rallies began in the country. The Iranian government has declared mourning.

On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, in a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, declared Iran's readiness for self-defense after the assassination of Khamenei. The Turkish minister, in turn, expressed his condolences over the death of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

On March 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian in connection with the murder of Khamenei. The Russian leader described the death of Ayatollah Khamenei as a cynical murder in violation of all norms of human morality and international law.

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