The conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase. And here's why
Israel and the United States conducted a preemptive attack on targets in Iran. In response, Tehran launched massive strikes against the US military infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region, including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Why Israel decided to unexpectedly attack Iran is in the Izvestia article.
The nuclear program
• According to the IAEA, by June 2025, Iran had reserves of 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity. There was very little left before the weapon level of 90%. In particular, we are not talking about ready-made weapons, but about materials and technologies that allow for a relatively quick transition to their creation with a political decision. At the same time, Iran insists that the program is aimed at civilian purposes, including energy and scientific research, and does not recognize the existence of military intentions.
• The main essence of the conflict is related to the issue of regional security. Iran's possible acquisition of nuclear weapons is perceived in the international community as a factor capable of changing the balance of power in the Middle East. For a number of countries in the region and the United States, this means an increase in military and political risks. Tensions are heightened by the fact that deep contradictions have long existed between Iran and its opponents, including support for different forces in regional conflicts and harsh mutual rhetoric.
• Israel assesses the situation based on a direct threat to its own security. The Israeli authorities believe that even the potential for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons is unacceptable, as in the past the Iranian leadership has repeatedly expressed extreme hostility towards the Israeli state. From this point of view, waiting for the completion of the Iranian program is considered too risky, therefore, Israel justifies the idea of preventive actions to contain Iran.
In response, Iran stated that it was external pressure, sanctions and threats from other states that forced it to develop nuclear technology. Tehran denies accusations of preparing to build nuclear weapons and calls Israel's actions a violation of international law. At the same time, the Iranian authorities emphasize their readiness to defend their nuclear facilities and sovereignty. All this supports a high level of tension in the region.
Overseas support
• The United States considers Iran a threat to its military bases, trade routes, and influence in the Persian Gulf and neighboring countries. Joint actions with Israel help prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction or supporting armed groups that threaten US allies.
Washington-Tel Aviv cooperation includes intelligence sharing, strike coordination, and operation planning. The main purpose of these actions is to limit Iran's military potential, reduce the risk of attacks on allies, and maintain control over important security zones.
Ideological confrontation
• Iran does not officially recognize Israel's right to exist. This position is fixed in the statements of the Iranian leadership and has been maintained for many years. It is part of the country's state ideology and foreign policy.
• The refusal to recognize Israel as a State creates constant tension in the region. These statements reinforce distrust and are perceived as a signal of hostile intentions. Iran's support for forces in conflict with Israel further reinforces the sense of threat.
• In Israel, such a position is considered a direct security risk. Denial of the right to exist is seen not as words, but as a possible basis for action. This affects the defense strategy and the need to be prepared for violent scenarios.
Indirect collisions
• The regional confrontation has been developing for a long time in the form of an indirect conflict, primarily on the territory of Syria. When active hostilities were taking place there, Iran consistently increased its influence. Through its military presence and allied structures, Tehran strengthened its positions near the borders of Israel, which gradually increased the level of tension.
An important factor was Iran's direct assistance to armed groups that are conducting attacks against Israel. Support includes funding, weapons, training, and political patronage. Such actions are perceived in Tel Aviv as systemic and purposeful.
• After the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the situation escalated dramatically. The conflict has gone beyond a hidden confrontation. Iran supports Hamas, and Israel sees this as direct involvement, not as influence through allied groups.
Preemptive strike
• Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz confirmed that Israeli forces launched a preemptive strike on Iranian territory. According to him, the actions were aimed at preventing direct threats to the country's security. The strikes hit targets in Tehran, where smoke was visible in some areas and communication outages were recorded. The operation was given the name "Lion's Roar", while it is reported that it was prepared in advance and carried out in coordination with the United States.
• After the attack began, Israel stepped up security measures: an alert was issued in a number of cities, and the airspace for civilian flights was temporarily closed. At the same time, emergency steps were taken in Iran to protect the leadership — the country's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, left the capital and was placed in a secure location, while mobile communications and the Internet were restricted in some parts of Tehran.
In response, Iran carried out a massive strike on the US military infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, launching a series of ballistic strikes against strategic targets in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. These attacks caused the immediate closure of airspace in most countries of the region and the emergency evacuation of citizens to shelters.
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