The volume of leased space in Russian shopping malls has collapsed

The volume of leased space in Russian shopping malls has collapsed. In the regions, it decreased to 45% in 2025, while in the capital it decreased by 12%. This conclusion was reached in their research by analysts of one of the largest players in the Russian commercial real estate management market, SAMPA, who conducted a study of the rental market.

"The business community has become less likely to rent space in shopping malls, and these areas themselves have become smaller. In Moscow and its immediate suburbs, demand has weakened by more than 20% (excluding the "hundred thousandth" projects), outside the metropolitan area, the decline can reach 30-45%. At the same time, the average dimensions of the leased facilities are decreasing," the study says.

It also notes that the base of the tenant pool still consists of representatives of five types of businesses - fashion (clothing, shoe, accessories stores), electronics and household appliances, catering, household goods and social services. In 2024, they generated 91% of all rental transactions, and 79% in 2025.

At the same time, cafes and restaurants are gradually becoming the main traffic generators for shopping malls. Of the top 5, only they show a tendency to expand their rental space. In the Moscow agglomeration, the average square footage of the lot allocated for catering increased by 17.6%, in the regions — by 32.3%.

"The transformation of the retail real estate market is currently underway: developers and tenants are gradually adapting to the current conditions. The former are moving to the construction of more compact facilities, while the latter are renting smaller premises," Maria Dorokhova, commercial director of the SAMPA Management Company, explained to Izvestia.

According to her, the industry is coping with challenges more confidently than expected: losses turned out to be lower than forecast, which indicates the high qualifications of the management teams. Apparently, it is personnel that will become the most valuable and scarce resource for the entire industry. Those shopping malls that win in the competition for them will be able to keep demand at an acceptable level in the future.

"The trend towards a decrease in rented square footage will continue. In 2026, I would rather expect the continuation of the same logic. Tenants will take compact blocks more often, and shopping malls will be more active in splitting up large premises. In Moscow, this looks like "fewer big stores, more small and medium—sized ones," in the regions it looks like "even more savings per meter" and caution in new openings. At the same time, the only category that is actually expanding is catering," Pavel Lyulin, vice president of the Union of Shopping Centers, agreed with this assessment.

According to him, the reason for this situation was the rising cost of rent, the duration of business payback, and the rationality of customers who increasingly shop online.

"I would not expect a massive return to big stores in 2026. Rather, there will be a point growth where it is logical in terms of traffic economics, for example, sports and entertainment, catering. In classical retail, local resuscitation is possible — but not through increasing the square footage, but through opening more small outlets and updating concepts," the expert concluded.

A place in the sun: fewer shopping centers are opening in Russia

What this is about and how it will affect the economy

Analysts at the NF Group consulting company reported on October 3 that Russian brands occupied more than 85% of the space after the departure of major international retailers: Swedish H&M and Japanese Uniqlo, which accounted for 79 thousand square meters, or 4% of the space in 22 largest Moscow shopping malls. There is still a high demand for the premises of departed foreign retailers due to the quality of the shopping centers themselves, the decoration of the shops and the location — usually on the first and second floors at the entrance to shopping malls or in traffic galleries. However, in some shopping malls, owners prefer not to rent out premises to little-known brands, but to wait for tenants who will generate high traffic and turnover comparable to their predecessors, analysts said.

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