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The road to darkness: London and Paris discuss the supply of nuclear weapons to Ukraine
On Tuesday, February 24, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) announced that London and Paris are considering the possibility of
assistance to Kiev in obtaining nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. At the same time, it is supposed to disguise such a transfer as an internal development of Ukraine. The ministry also stressed that Germany refused to participate in such initiatives. For more information about the military and legal consequences of such steps in the international arena, see the Izvestia article.
Assistance to Kiev: What happened, the SVR statement
The press Bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation issued a statement stating that, according to information received by the agency, the United Kingdom and France believe that the development of the situation around Ukraine leaves no prospects for achieving a strategic victory over Russia by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, as follows from the message, the British and French elites are not ready to accept the possible defeat of Kiev and are considering options for radically strengthening its military potential.
According to the SVR, under these conditions, the idea of supplying Ukraine with weapons is being discussed in Paris and London, which is believed to radically change the balance of power. According to Russian intelligence, it could be about providing Kiev with nuclear weapons or, at least, creating conditions for Ukraine to have a so-called "dirty bomb." The possession of such funds could, according to the supporters of this initiative, strengthen Kiev's negotiating position and allow it to claim more favorable conditions for the end of hostilities.
Separately, the report emphasizes that Germany refused to participate in such plans, considering them excessively risky. Thus, the proposed initiative, according to the statement, is being discussed without Berlin's participation.
The SVR also states that London and Paris are currently "actively working to resolve issues" of the possible provision of such weapons and their means of delivery to Ukraine. According to the agency, a scenario of covert transfer of European components, equipment and technologies that could be used in relevant developments is being considered. Among the possible options mentioned is the French small-sized TN75 warhead used on M51.1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
What does international law say?
Possible steps by London and Paris to help Kiev acquire nuclear weapons are fraught with extremely serious international legal risks. According to the SVR, British and French political circles understand that such actions would mean a gross violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and could lead to the destruction of the entire global system of nuclear deterrence and control.
In this regard, the main efforts of Western countries are focused on making the potential appearance of a nuclear component in Ukraine look like the result of independent development. This could involve a covert transfer of technology, equipment, and individual components, which would formally distance oneself from a direct violation of international obligations.
Military analyst Boris Jerelievsky, in an interview with Izvestia, draws attention to the legal side of the issue.
"According to Russian military doctrine, a state that transfers nuclear weapons to Ukraine is automatically considered a direct participant in the conflict," with all the ensuing consequences, the expert emphasizes.
Everything has been thought out: prospects for the development of the scenario
Possible plans to transfer nuclear components to Ukraine have already been mentioned earlier. Boris Jerelievsky notes that information about such scenarios appeared at the beginning of the special military operation (SVO). According to some reports, discussions were held in British political circles during the period when Boris Johnson was in charge of the government, and there is no reason to say that London completely ruled out such a prospect at that time.
Under certain conditions, a similar scenario could theoretically be considered by France. The expert attributes this to a broader geopolitical logic. In his opinion, the United States is interested in ensuring that a possible escalation of the confrontation with Russia remains within the European continent, without Washington's direct involvement. In such a configuration, the expert suggests, Europe and Russia could mutually weaken each other, while the United States would gain strategic advantages in the long run.
— An extremely negative scenario is also possible, up to and including nuclear escalation, which could theoretically be geographically limited to Eastern Europe. We are talking about a hypothetical calculation in which the main risks and consequences are concentrated in the region, minimizing their spread to the territories of Western European countries, the expert emphasizes.
As noted by military commentator Andrei Soyustov, the topic of Ukraine's nuclear status has already played a significant role in the development of the conflict. He recalls that public statements by the Ukrainian side about a possible revision of the nuclear-weapon-free status have become one of the factors of a sharp escalation of the situation. The deployment or transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine would be not just an irritating factor for Russia, but a "maximum red line" that cannot be crossed.
If Western-made nuclear weapons appear on Ukrainian territory, this may be regarded by Moscow as a direct basis for further escalation. Moreover, in his opinion, such a step could provoke an expansion of the conflict beyond Ukraine, already in a westerly direction, since the reaction could go beyond the exclusively Ukrainian theater of military operations, the expert says.
According to the general opinion of experts, if such intentions are confirmed, we could talk about the transition of the confrontation to a fundamentally different level, with difficult to predict consequences for the entire European security.
Possible carriers of nuclear weapons
In the case of the hypothetical appearance of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the key issue is the choice of their means of delivery. Experts emphasize that the very concept of "nuclear weapons" covers a wide range of systems — from tactical charges to so-called "dirty bombs", designed primarily for radioactive contamination of the territory, and not for targeted military destruction.
Boris Jerelievsky notes that, theoretically, the SCALP cruise missiles can be considered among the weapons already available in Ukraine. According to him, from a technical point of view, such systems can in principle be adapted to a nuclear warhead. In addition, he mentions the Flamingo missile system under development, which, in his opinion, could also hypothetically be used as a carrier. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that it would most likely not be a completely national development, but a system based on Western components, possibly with final assembly on Ukrainian territory.
— If France or Great Britain decided to take such a step, it would be important for them to disguise their involvement as much as possible. In this case, it would be extremely difficult to prove the transfer and the degree of involvement of specific countries. Flamingos have already been launched at targets deep in Russian territory, so if Kiev had nuclear weapons, any launch of such a missile would automatically be perceived as a potential nuclear threat, the expert believes.
At the same time, the expert believes that such decisions are unlikely to be made suddenly — information about the transfer of the relevant systems would probably have become known in advance through intelligence channels.
According to Andrei Soyustov, if we talk about full-fledged military carriers, then aviation delivery vehicles should be considered first. The F-16 fighter jets have modifications capable of using tactical nuclear weapons. Given that such aircraft have already appeared on the territory of Ukraine, their potential use as carriers is considered one of the most discussed scenarios.
— Even at the stage of discussions on the supply of F-16, Russian diplomacy stated that the appearance of these aircraft would be perceived as a possible prologue to further nuclear escalation. Thus, the logic of the development of events was calculated in advance, and the issue of media itself is not technically unsolvable," the expert recalls.
Russia's reaction: political signals
Against the background of statements about possible plans to transfer nuclear components to Ukraine, Moscow has outlined a tough political position. According to the press service of the Federation Council, a group of Russian senators sent appeals to the parliamentarians of Great Britain and France, as well as to a number of international organizations, calling for an investigation based on information provided by intelligence agencies.
The appeals emphasize that if such intentions are confirmed, we may be talking about actions that could lead to further escalation of the conflict and create additional threats to security on the European continent. The senators point out that such steps affect not only bilateral relations, but also the entire architecture of international security.
The text pays special attention to the provisions of the Nuclear Doctrine of the Russian Federation. The document recalls that aggression by a non-nuclear State with the support of a nuclear power is considered as their joint attack. Russian lawmakers emphasize that London and Paris cannot ignore this factor when assessing the possible consequences of their decisions.
The appeals were sent to the European Parliament, the United Nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as to the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The Russian senators suggested using the mandates of these structures to conduct inspections and a comprehensive investigation of the information provided.
In addition, the document criticizes the possible adoption of such decisions bypassing national democratic procedures. The authors of the appeal warn of "catastrophic consequences" in the case of such scenarios and insist that the parliaments of Great Britain and France should conduct their own investigations, ensuring transparency and informing the public and the international community.
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