Russia-USA Deal: Where the gold is buried
The resumption of normal economic ties between the United States and Russia can provide additional revenues for both economies in the trillions of dollars, according to Kirill Dmitriev, special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries. Izvestia investigated which sectors and industries could benefit from the lifting of sanctions and the "green light" for American investment and the expansion of trade with the United States, and what would be the benefits for each of these industries.
The Chinese Miracle
At one time, the improvement of relations between the United States and China in the 1970s led to the Chinese economic miracle on the one hand, and to globalization and super-profits of American corporations on the other. The effect of those events on the global economy and politics cannot be overestimated. Of course, the situation is different now, and we can only hypothetically talk about warming relations between the United States and Russia. And Russia can't provide what China had: a billion cheap and motivated workers. However, our country has its own trump cards — the resource base, logistics and energy security.
According to Vladislav Bukharsky, Associate director for Sovereign and Regional ratings at the Expert RA agency, as part of potential cooperation, the United States is interested in package deals including the development of Arctic oil and gas, the extraction of rare earth metals, and the construction of a data processing center with a nuclear reactor. There is also interest in fertilizers, non-ferrous metals, and precious metals. Gas processing may become a separate area of cooperation.
The revival of Shtokman
First of all, Arctic hydrocarbons have the potential to be a strategic resource. The United States produces a lot of oil itself, but the American majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron) critically lack proven reserves to maintain capitalization over a 20-30-year horizon.
Recently, there have been more and more signs that the peak of shale oil production has either already been reached or is expected in the near future. The Russian Arctic is a more "long—term" oil. And for its extraction, investments and technologies are needed, which the Americans have (the same ExxonMobil).
The Vostok Oil projects look extremely attractive, but the Shtokman gas field, which was abandoned more than a decade ago (almost 4 trillion cubic meters), as well as the Bazhenov formation, rich in shale oil, which has not yet been properly started, may be equally important. Shtokman will require huge investments — under $ 40-50 billion, but the return at current gas prices can reach a trillion dollars or even more. This is an extremely long-term investment. As for the Bazhenov formation, the recoverable reserves there are small in comparison with the resources, but this is up to 100 billion barrels. And unlike the Arctic Ocean, it is possible to create the necessary infrastructure there with moderate expenses. In fact, we are talking about the Russian version of Permian, the largest shale deposit in America.
In all these cases, the costs can be very significant, but in the simplest approximation, oil and gas projects, if fully implemented, will be able to generate a financial flow of up to $50 billion, and for decades.
The titan of the industry
The second area is the notorious rare earths and other metals. For example, the Tomtor deposit in Yakutia surpasses many world analogues in terms of its useful substance content. The question is again about money and competencies. Technically speaking, the income here is unlikely to be large, but for both the United States and Russia, the opportunity to get away from import dependence on such metals is invaluable.
In addition, there is titanium. Boeing was critically dependent on VSMPO-Avisma. The return to deep cooperation and the creation of joint ventures will allow the American aviation industry to stabilize supply chains. Finally, palladium and nickel. Norilsk Nickel controls 40% of the world's palladium. For the American automotive industry (catalysts) and electronics, this is a strategic resource. Direct access or a share in the capital guarantees the safety of Tesla and Ford.
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is also developing and in the future may become the most direct road from Russia to the United States. Antonina Levashenko, head of the Gaidar Institute's Laboratory for the analysis of best International practices, said that Arctic logistics, including transportation along the Northern Sea Route, ports, communications, and rescue infrastructure, is also a promising area: currently, the volume of transportation along the NSR is tens of millions of tons per year.
— According to the Ministry of Transport, in 2025, transportation in the NSR amounted to 37.02 million tons, and transit through the water area reached 3.2 million tons. Therefore, in terms of investments, we are talking more about investments in ports, icebreaking and rescue fleets, communications and navigation," the expert noted.
However, in the long term — 15-20 years, as the Arctic Ocean becomes more ice-free in summer and the navigation season becomes longer, it may, at least in some months, replace the Suez Canal. And here we are talking about billions of dollars annually.
Among other potential targets for transactions, according to Vladislav Bukharsky, discussions of major infrastructure projects periodically arise, up to the intercontinental tunnel between Alaska and Russia.
— It is likely that Russia has an interest in modernizing the Russian civil aviation fleet, so this is also a promising area for cooperation. As for returns, the largest real cash flows can be generated in the energy and mineral resources, while they largely depend on sanctions," the source reminded Izvestia.
In addition, as Bukharsky notes, one should not forget that some American companies are interested in repurchasing assets previously transferred to local management — this can also be a profitable solution.
There is also potential for expanding cooperation in agriculture and related sectors. Until 2022, companies like John Deere were doing well in the Russian market, so the demand potential in one of the most important agricultural countries is great. Moreover, Russian agriculture has a lot to grow. All this opens up opportunities for partnerships worth billions of dollars a year.
Data centers as a gold mine
Well, the idea of building data centers (data centers) is a real elephant in the room. Now the American economy is already experiencing problems with energy consumption — due to the massive construction of data centers, electricity prices in a number of states have increased significantly. Russia, in turn, is one of the most energy-rich countries in the world. This is especially true in the eastern regions of the country, where, due to the climate, cooling costs will be much lower.
"The regions of Siberia and the Far East have advantages due to lower average annual temperatures and the availability of electricity generation sources," says Vladislav Bukharsky. — Many have already heard that representatives of the United States and Russia discussed the possibility of a joint project on a data center that would run on atomic energy, while Russia publicly voiced the benefits of hosting data centers in the country. But it is worth noting that such steps require special trust.
According to Levashenko, data centers in Russia can become a "gold mine", but this is only if a number of conditions can be met.
— It is not enough that there are power plants somewhere in the region. We need clear tariffs, connection guarantees, and the ability of networks to transfer power. Sometimes we need to build or expand networks, and sometimes we need separate generation for a large consumer. Currently, in many countries, the growth of data centers is hampered precisely by restrictions on power supply. In addition, connectivity and reliability of the infrastructure are needed. A data center cannot operate normally without backbone optics and channel redundancy, without predictable logistics of equipment and service, and without on-site specialists.
Third, the legal regime of data and technology. If we think of an export model, when services and computing are sold in the USA or the EU, then in 2026 this is very limited. The United States has bans on new investments in Russia and restrictions on a number of services, plus strict rules on the supply of sensitive technologies, including computing hardware and components. On the Russian side, data localization requirements may become a barrier.
According to Antonina Levashenko, in this context, the cold climate of Siberia and the Far East can really be useful, because cooling is cheaper.
"If there is stable energy generation nearby, for example from hydro or nuclear power facilities, then projects can be attractive both from an economic and reputational point of view, since the carbon footprint of such projects will be significantly lower compared to data centers that operate from thermal power plants," the expert concludes.
All this, with proper investments, can also generate billions of dollars in revenue annually, as well as fully utilize the enormous energy capacities of the eastern regions of the country. Of course, this will be possible only with a very deep level of cooperation, which is visible (with positive developments) only in the long term.
In general, it can be stated that despite the relatively small figures of mutual trade, even in 2022, economic cooperation between Russia and the United States has almost inexhaustible potential and can even generate additional revenue (and hence budget revenues) in a relatively short period of time tens of billions of dollars. In the future, this figure may turn from 11-digit to 12-digit. That will add up to the required trillions over the decades. But to implement such a program, a genuine revolution in relations between Moscow and Washington is needed, which is too early to predict.
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