Revision of solidarity: Warsaw tightens rules for Ukrainians
Polish President Karol Nawrocki has canceled benefits for unemployed Ukrainian refugees: they will be deprived of access to free medicine and compensation for rental housing. Experts believe that the decision was dictated not so much by economic considerations as by an attempt to encourage the return of a certain part of men of working age to Ukraine. Whether to expect a mass outflow of refugees from Warsaw and whether such a trend will become pan—European is in the Izvestia article.
Support without privileges
Since the beginning of the conflict, Poland has received the largest number of Ukrainian refugees. According to official data, there are about one million Ukrainian citizens in the country today. From August to November last year alone, more than 120,000 Ukrainians aged 18-22 entered the republic — about half of them stayed for a long time.
The refugees were in the country on the basis of a special law of 2022, which created a separate legal framework with simplified conditions of residence, employment and social benefits. Now this special regime is gradually being phased out.
The work of the registration center for Ukrainian refugees in Warsaw. 2022
"The new law abolishes emergency support mechanisms and introduces system rules. Support — yes. There are no privileges at the expense of Poles," the Polish president said in a statement.
According to the new rules, the legal stay of Ukrainians under temporary protection has been extended until March 4, 2027. One of the key innovations is the requirement to issue a PESEL identification number within 30 days of entering the country. Failure to register may result in the loss of temporary protection status.
The changes also affect the social sphere. Some of the benefits are now reserved only for officially employed citizens and those families whose children attend Polish schools. For the rest, benefits are reduced.
Free access to the healthcare system is also being transferred to the general regime applicable to foreigners. Medical support will be provided primarily to children, working people, victims of violence and vulnerable categories. It also provides for the cancellation of housing benefits. An exception will be made only for wounded soldiers undergoing treatment in Poland.
The current measures have become part of a consistent tightening of the rules of stay for Ukrainians. In early February, the authorities restricted access to child benefits under the 800+ program for unemployed refugees. Previously, the amount was about 800 zloty (17 thousand rubles) per child under 18 years of age. Now, the right to this assistance is reserved only for officially employed recipients.
— Many benefits, including housing benefits, are being significantly reduced. They will be reserved only for vulnerable categories: the disabled, the incapacitated, and the elderly. Those who are able to work are actually offered to integrate: to work, to learn a language, to rent housing on a common basis, like other foreigners. We are talking about the gradual equalization of Ukrainians with everyone else as early as 2026," political commentator Andrei Starikov explains to Izvestia.
Ulterior motives
The decision of the Polish authorities cannot be called unexpected — a possible tightening of the regime has long been discussed in the Polish political community. Navrotsky's rise to power only accelerated the already existing trends, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with Izvestia. Warsaw's change of course also coincided with a gradual decrease in the emotional momentum of support typical for 2022.
— Poland retains support for those who work, — the expert notes. — And from the point of view of the state, this is logical: Polish taxpayers are not ready to permanently subsidize economically inactive people. However, the decision is dictated not only by economic, but also by political considerations. There is a growing demand for a more pragmatic migration policy within Poland. In addition, it is impossible to exclude the indirect expectation that some of the men of working age will return to Ukraine, where the mobilization crisis continues.
President of Poland Karol Nawrocki and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting
Despite the stricter rules, a massive outflow of Ukrainians to Germany and other EU countries should not be expected, Andrei Starikov believes. Those who wanted to use Poland as a transit point had already done so earlier. At the same time, the majority of Ukrainians in the country today are employed, but Warsaw needs not just their presence, but full-fledged integration.
— Poland needs workers. But it is important for Ukrainians to become Poles, or at least "semi-Poles": they spoke Polish, followed Polish laws, did not create parallel structures, were organically dispersed throughout the country and did not form closed settlements. In emigration, Ukrainians are believed to be inclined to build their own internal structures. This is undesirable for Poland: such processes can lead to an increase in the shadow economy and an increase in criminal risks," the expert explains.
Analysts interviewed by Izvestia agree that the trend towards stricter rules of residence may intensify throughout the European Union. Whereas in 2022 many countries operated in emergency support mode, today legalization procedures have become noticeably more complex.
According to Denisov, the pan-European trend has not yet taken final shape, but the signs are obvious. There are two key factors influencing the situation.
The first is the change in public sentiment in the EU countries, where the level of solidarity is gradually decreasing. The second factor is electoral cycles. Political elites are forced to take into account the positions of their constituents. If support for refugees declines, governments adjust migration policies, including tightening the conditions of stay.
"Thus, the Polish decision fits into a broader process of transition from emotional mobilization to pragmatism,— Denisov emphasizes. — Ukraine's military and political support may remain, but the social policy towards refugees is gradually becoming more stringent and selective.
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