Hungary and Slovakia have stopped supplying diesel to Ukraine. What does this mean?

On February 19, the European Commission confirmed the cessation of diesel fuel supplies to Ukraine, which had previously been announced by Hungary and Slovakia. European countries suspected Kiev of deliberately delaying oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline in order to put pressure on the political leadership of the countries and interfere in the Hungarian elections. How Ukrainian blackmail will affect the EU and whether there is an alternative to Russian oil for Budapest and Bratislava — in the Izvestia article.

Causes of conflict

• The European Union continues its attempts to abandon the consumption of cheap Russian petroleum products. The only European countries with an exception allowing the purchase of crude oil from Russia were Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria. The latter abandoned Russian supplies in March 2024 and switched to oil purchases from Norway, Kazakhstan and Iraq. For Hungary and Slovakia, the permit for the import of Russian oil was extended until 2027.

• Both countries receive Russian raw materials for their oil refineries through the Druzhba pipeline passing through the territory of Ukraine. According to Kiev, as a result of an unmanned attack on January 27, 2026, the equipment was disabled and supplies stopped.

Not to the service, but to Druzhba: Hungary and Slovakia wanted Russian oil supplies through Croatia

Zagreb makes it clear that this is possible only within the framework of EU and US rules.

• The press, citing sources in the oil industry, reported that the repair of the site was completed on February 6, but the management of Ukrtransnafta did not give permission to resume supplies. Press reports appeared on February 13, at the same time the Hungarian Foreign Ministry said that Ukraine was deliberately delaying supplies in order to complicate the situation for the Hungarian government before the April 12 parliamentary elections, as the opposition was trying to blame the ruling party for all the economic problems. Slovakia intends to request an inspection by the European Commission on the damaged section of the oil pipeline in the Ukrainian city of Brody and demanded from Kiev an explanation of the reasons for the transit stop.

The reaction of Hungary and Slovakia

• Against the background of the suspension of fuel supplies from Russia, Slovakia, at the request of the Slovnaft plant (a division of the Hungarian oil giant MOL), imposed a state of emergency in the oil sector and allocated 250 thousand tons of oil from the country's emergency reserves to the plant. Budapest also announced that it will use oil from emergency reserves until it is possible to ensure the supply of Russian fuel through the Adriatic pipeline. In accordance with the requirements of the European Union, these reserves should last for 90 days and should be replenished after the resumption of supplies.

Hungary and Slovakia are already negotiating with Croatia to ensure the supply of Russian oil. Crude oil from other producers is already being supplied to MOL plants via the Croatian Adria pipeline, but due to the high cost of raw materials and its characteristics, which most production facilities are not designed for, the company is in need of Russian fuel. Zagreb has not yet confirmed its consent to transport Russian oil through its pipeline for fear of falling under sanctions.

Resource curse: Hungary's opposition intends to change oil and gas suppliers

Peter Magyar's party is betting on import diversification — what does this mean and how will it affect relations with the Russian Federation

• Hungary and Slovakia have also applied to the European Commission for permission to ship Russian oil if it is impossible to receive fuel via onshore pipelines. The first 500,000 tons of offshore oil shipments are on their way and are expected to arrive at Croatian ports in early March. It will take 5-10 days to deliver them to factories in Hungary and Slovakia. Slovakia also announced the possible termination of electricity exports to Ukraine if it is confirmed that the delays in supplies via the Druzhba pipeline were politically motivated.

• The refineries in Hungary and Slovakia were originally built to process Urals grade oil, but during the Ukrainian conflict, under threat of EU sanctions pressure, the company was looking for an opportunity to convert production facilities to process other grades of fuel. Currently, MOL enterprises can process up to 40% of non-Russian oil. For three years, the company announced the diversification of its production facilities in Hungary and Slovakia to completely abandon Russian raw materials, but the process turned out to be too long and expensive. The deadline for completing the diversification has now been postponed to the end of 2026.

Consequences for Ukraine

• In the context of the energy crisis, diesel in Ukraine is in demand not only as an automobile fuel, but also for generating electricity, since emergency generators often run on diesel. But diesel fuel supplies from Hungary and Slovakia in January 2026 accounted for only 11% of the total volume of imports of this energy resource. Theoretically, Ukraine could quickly compensate for the shortage with supplies from Poland, Romania and through the Black Sea ports.

Bratislava of Russia: Slovakia is ready to resume flights with Moscow

More and more EU countries expect the restoration of trade and political ties with the Russian Federation — under what conditions can this be done

• However, Poland and Romania are also consumers of the products of the oil giant MOL — according to the company's report, in 2024 these countries ranked fourth and fifth respectively in terms of purchases after Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia. Since the Slovak plant has already stated that all products produced from emergency crude oil reserves will not go to foreign markets and will be supplied only domestically, it is possible that Romania and Poland may reduce their fuel exports to Ukraine due to supply constraints.

• The threat to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine is much more serious. Exports from Hungary provide up to 50% of Ukrainian energy, while the share of Slovak supplies is 18%. In conditions of acute energy shortage, this is a significant amount that Kiev will not be able to replace. The Ukrainian press also calculated the share of Hungary and Slovakia in the supply of natural gas to the country, despite the fact that the issue of restrictions on this resource was not raised. It turned out that Budapest provides 38% of Ukraine's natural gas needs, while Bratislava accounts for 20%.

What does this mean?

• The EU countries are linked by a single market, and the cessation of supplies to Hungary and Slovakia may lead to shortages and higher fuel prices in other European markets. Moreover, these countries were not the only consumers of Russian crude oil — Croatia and Serbia received fuel in transit through Hungary. In its political decisions, Ukraine often does not take into account how its actions towards individual countries will affect the situation in the EU as a whole.

• The European Union finds itself in a difficult situation: on the one hand, it unconditionally supports Ukraine, and on the other, it has to listen to the EU member states, whose economies have suffered due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees, the destruction of logistics chains and the loss of access to cheap energy resources, which simply have no alternative due to the geographical location of Slovakia and Hungary.. Brussels is also considering the possibility of financial support for countries bordering Ukraine. The economic situation in these countries is deteriorating due to the constant influx of Ukrainian refugees, and this, as well as the proximity to the war zone, provokes the outflow of the indigenous population deep into the EU, along with part of the refugees. These processes are considered as a threat to the EU's security.

• For Russia, this means a squeeze on international energy markets. At the same time, experts rule out that such a situation will accelerate the EU's transition to a green economy or strengthen the influence of lobbyists on such an agenda, since renewable energy sources are highly dependent on natural factors and require backup capacities that run on fossil energy resources. It is possible that Ukraine will still have to resume oil transit from Russia, since the European Union, with its overburdened budget, will find it difficult to compensate for the possible losses of Slovakia and Hungary associated with the purchase of more expensive fuel and increased logistical costs.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Director of the Center for European Information, international political scientist Nikolai Topornin;
• Maxim Chirkov, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at the GUU Institute of Economics and Finance.