Technical process: negotiations in Switzerland went beyond security issues
The first day of negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine on the settlement of the conflict has ended in Geneva. A landing party of European diplomats also arrived there: representatives from London, Paris, Berlin and Rome tried to join the process on the sidelines. Their goals have yet to be clarified. Moreover, on the eve of the meeting, Kiev did not register a mood for a settlement, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. In addition, the closed—door discussions took place against the backdrop of a split in the Ukrainian group - its representatives argued about the benefits of concluding a deal under the auspices of the United States as soon as possible. Experts note that the nature of the meetings has changed a lot since Abu Dhabi, the range of issues discussed has expanded, and political demands from Russia have certainly appeared among them, in particular on the status of the Russian language and the canonical Orthodox Church.
How was the first day of the trilateral talks in Geneva?
The meeting in Switzerland on February 17, apparently, was fruitful: negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine lasted more than four hours. Like the previous rounds in the UAE, they were conducted in a closed format from the press, contacts were both trilateral and bilateral. The participants also refrained from making official statements. However, the world community had a lot to discuss.
If the changes in the Russian delegation were known in advance — this time it was headed by Russian Presidential envoy Vladimir Medinsky, and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin joined the delegation, the American side surprised just the day before. In addition to the traditional negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the meeting was attended by the military: General Alex Grinkevich, Commander of the US and NATO Armed Forces in Europe, and Daniel Driscoll, Secretary of the Army.
Their presence is no coincidence. Igor Kostyukov, Head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, who previously represented Russia in the UAE, is expected to arrive in Geneva from Moscow. It should be recalled that security issues were discussed in Abu Dhabi, that is, mainly interaction between military representatives. The result was, among other things, the resumption of contacts between the defense departments of the Russian Federation and the United States, which were interrupted back in 2021.
In Geneva, a pronounced political aspect was added to the negotiations. The main attention was paid directly to the status of territories under the control of the Russian Federation. In addition, the participation of Medinsky, who traditionally represents the Kremlin's political demands, indicates an attempt to combine technical agreements with Moscow's political demands.
One of these technical aspects, according to the American media, was the creation of a mechanism for monitoring the ceasefire after the conclusion of a peace agreement. At the same time, judging by Vladimir Zelensky's public statements, there was no mood on the part of Kiev for a peaceful settlement, Rodion Miroshnik, the ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
— The events of the last 24 hours did not give grounds, at least on the ground, to say that Ukraine is directly predisposed to achieve some serious result. And the number of drones that arrived [in Russian regions], and the events in the Crimea, and the arrivals in the Belgorod region. We have not seen any serious reasons that Ukraine's approach has changed," the diplomat stressed.
Before the session, the head of the Ukrainian group, Rustem Umerov, identified the humanitarian block and the provision of security guarantees as priorities. Because of this, there was even a split among the representatives of Kiev. It is reported that the delegation was divided into two camps due to disagreements over the signing of the agreement under the patronage of Washington. The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov (listed in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist), allegedly insists on reaching an agreement with Russia as soon as possible with the mediation of the United States, fearing that the window of opportunity for Kiev will close soon. However, a significant part of the Ukrainian negotiators takes a different position.
Interestingly, although the meeting was a trilateral one, there were many more participants in the negotiation day. There, in the building of the Intercontinental Hotel, there was reportedly a British delegation led by Jonathan Powell, adviser to the British Prime Minister on national security. According to reports, Powell had consultations with Witkoff and Driscoll earlier in the morning. In addition, representatives of France, Germany and Italy arrived in Geneva — meetings with American and Ukrainian delegations were planned on the sidelines, according to European media.
What has changed in the negotiations in Switzerland
The nature of the meetings on the Ukrainian settlement has changed, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, said in a conversation with Izvestia. Such a conclusion can be drawn both in terms of the composition of the Russian delegation and its size.
— Most likely, more sensitive issues could have been raised at the meeting. Earlier, we talked about technical issues — a cease-fire, an exchange of prisoners of war. These are also controversial issues, but judging by the composition of the Russian delegation, it was the political aspects that could be discussed in Geneva, which, by definition, are more difficult for both sides," the expert noted.
The main stumbling block remains the territorial issue. Kiev still refuses to leave the remaining part of Donbass and disputes the status of the Zaporizhia NPP. The post-war security guarantees complicate the negotiation process no less. Ukraine is asking for conditions similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter, while Moscow categorically rejects the idea of a foreign military presence on Ukrainian territory. However, these are not all controversial issues.
Medinsky's participation may also mean that the Russian side has raised the issue of the status of the Russian language and the status of the canonical Orthodox Church, Kortunov stressed. These are the topics that the Ukrainian side has been trying to leave out of the negotiation process as much as possible.
In any case, it is hardly possible to avoid discussing the monitoring of the ceasefire. The parties understand that signing agreements does not guarantee their fulfillment, Kortunov said. When the second Minsk agreements were signed, a similar mechanism was created under the auspices of the OSCE, but both Moscow and Kiev have doubts about the effectiveness of this organization's participation in the settlement.
In early February, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis announced the prospect of facilitating monitoring — he also participated in the Geneva talks. After recent visits to Kiev and Moscow, he confirmed that the OSCE is ready to support the implementation of the settlement with the consent of all parties and the necessary conditions on the ground.
The last point is still particularly difficult: Ukraine is increasing the shelling of Russian cities every time ahead of the negotiations. In particular, from February 9 to February 15, more than 140 civilians, including six minors, were injured by attacks from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Rodion Miroshnik reported on his Telegram channel. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at least 2,563 rounds of ammunition at civilian targets on Russian territory during this period. Only in the Bryansk region and only in the period from 08:00 Moscow time on February 15 to February 16, 229 UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed, the governor of the region Alexander Bogomaz reported earlier. Kiev has increased the intensity of artillery, missile strikes, and drone attacks.
The Russian side had to respond to attacks, including on energy facilities used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
Usually, the intensification of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the eve of negotiations is due to the fact that Kiev wants to demonstrate its ability to conduct military operations and cause damage to Russia, political analyst Yuri Svetov told Izvestia.
— As for the current situation, it is connected with an attempt to negotiate an energy truce. There is pressure on Russia from all sides to stop our strikes," he said.
Svetov stressed that Moscow is not attacking civilian targets, but attacking what supports Ukraine's defense industry, the supply chain of weapons to the front, and the entire Armed Forces. Nevertheless, a truce in the form of a suspension of strikes on energy, according to media reports, also became one of the topics at the meeting in Geneva — on February 18, the parties will continue to discuss a future settlement.
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