The analyst noted the disadvantage of storing savings in dollars at the moment.

Taking into account the current dynamics of the foreign exchange market and the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, keeping savings in dollars today looks unwarranted for a Russian investor. This was announced to Izvestia on February 17 by Alexander Schneiderman, Head of Alfa-Forex's Customer Support and Sales department.

According to him, in 2025, the US currency weakened against the ruble by about 23%, to 78.23 rubles at the end of 2025. At the beginning of 2026, as the expert notes, the trend continued — by February 17, the exchange rate dropped to 76.62 rubles (another minus about 2.5%), and on the Alfa-Forex site on some days the dollar dropped to 76.50.

"Investors who held the currency without hedging actually faced double losses. On the one hand, there is a direct exchange rate loss: a package of $100,000, purchased for 102 rubles at the beginning of 2025, is now estimated at about 7.7 million rubles, which means a minus of about 2.3 million rubles. On the other hand, there is a significant lost profit: a ruble deposit at 16-18% per annum over the same period could bring about 1.7 million rubles of income," said Schneiderman.

The analyst stressed that the cumulative gap in the financial result exceeds 4 million rubles for every $100 thousand of capital. According to him, additional pressure is created by inflation in the United States of about 3% per annum, bank fees and extended conversion spreads, which in some periods "ate up" another 3-5 rubles from $1.

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Schneiderman stressed that the strategy of sitting in the dollar at high ruble rates did not pay off. He also noted that in the medium term, the dollar's recovery is theoretically possible under the influence of global factors, but in the current environment, the priority is to diversify into ruble-denominated floating coupon bonds, gold and other precious metals, as well as liquid digital assets.

According to the expert, it is advisable to limit the dollar's share in the portfolio to about 10%, solely as insurance in case of force majeure.

"The fundamental demand for the US currency remains restrained against the background of macroeconomic stability, the effect of the budget rule, the high key rate of the Bank of Russia and the reorientation of foreign trade. By the beginning of spring, the ruble is likely to maintain a strong position: the base scenario assumes a dollar movement in the range of 74.5–79 rubles, with a high probability of holding below 80 rubles," the analyst concluded.

On February 16, Spartak Sobolev, Head of the Alfa-Forex Investment Strategy Research Department, predicted the fluctuation of the ruble exchange rate this week. According to him, the currency will fluctuate between 74.50–79 rubles per dollar, 88-93 rubles per euro, and 10.75–11.40 rubles per yuan.

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