Step and abyss: regulatory restrictions on credit cards reduce their share and increase the gray area in the economy

According to the United Credit Bureau (BKI OKB), credit card issuance reached a five-year low in January 2026. This year, the regulatory measures consistently implemented by the Central Bank have been superimposed on the seasonal factor. Earlier in the study of the audit and consulting group DRT (Izvestia has it) Dismal statistics were released: in Russia, only 25-30% of adults use credit cards — half as many as in Europe and China, where this figure reaches 50-80%. More than 70% of loans are issued in cash. Analysts note the trend of borrowers moving to MFIs. The reason lies not in social patterns, but in the tightening of credit card regulation by the Central Bank, experts say. Izvestia investigated what hinders the growth of the credit card market.

Why Credit Card Risks are Overestimated

Credit cards in our country are overly regulated, which negatively affects the development of this market segment, according to the authors of the study. The key barrier in the DRT is the use of the full cost of credit (CCL) when calculating macroprudential surcharges on credit cards and cash loans, without taking into account the specifics of using "plastic".

Andrey Emelin, Chairman of the Office of the National Financial Market Council, confirmed that there are difficulties due to regulation, which does not fully take into account the specifics of the cards. They are already protected by anti-fraud measures, as well as a multi-level security system combined with a self-ban on lending. Emelin believes that the government could support this segment, which is still underdeveloped in Russia. According to him, "cards are the main instrument of lending to individuals abroad." This is a flexible mechanism that is easier to manage by the client and controlled by the bank.

Macroprudential surcharges are designed to limit the issuance of loans to borrowers with a high debt burden — those who allocate more than 50% of their income to cover loans. The Central Bank does not prohibit the granting of loans to such clients completely, but it makes their provision unprofitable for banks. This reduces risks for financial institutions and protects customers from credit overload.

Banks are also forced to take into account the full cost of a plastic loan when calculating the debt burden — this is the entire amount of card payments, taking into account additional and potential interest payments, DRT experts noted. At the same time, even an unused card with a limit of 100,000 rubles is included in the calculation of the debt burden, as if the borrower already spends 5-10 thousand rubles a month, said Ahmed Yusupov, a partner at Goldman Agency. UCS are calculated according to the "worst-case scenario," and the law obliges banks to make fixed rates on most credit cards.

When macroprudential surcharges are introduced or increased, they apply to all new transactions on existing cards, regardless of the date of its approval and the requirements in force at that time, the DRT experts explained.

— It's as if you were issued a fine for speeding in 2020 according to the rules adopted in 2025, — explained the economists of the Telegram channel "Black Swan".

That is, due to regulatory changes, banks may have a sharp increase in the capital burden on the entire old loan portfolio - as a result, market participants have to quickly reduce their customer limits in order to somehow compensate for losses.

Banks, in fact, have no other ways to manage the risks of "plastic", except for cutting the maximum amounts, the experts of the DRT explained.

Izvestia has repeatedly written about massive reductions in credit card limits by banks. The trend towards zeroing them has intensified since the end of 2024, when the Central Bank restricted lending to borrowers with high debt loads. Against the background of rising delinquencies, banks began to take a more cautious approach to risk management. According to analysts, the restrictions will primarily affect customers with unstable incomes and active cash withdrawals, but other borrowers are also subject to reduced limits.

The problem of reducing the amounts is quite large-scale, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In 2025, according to the United Credit Bureau, credit card limits decreased by an average of 41%. By the end of 2025, the average limit in the Russian Federation was already about 99 thousand rubles.

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The measure is designed to help in the fight against over-crediting of citizens

The consequences of the decline in popularity of credit cards

In Russia, they claim that they are building a digital economy, but the structure of lending is still dominated by cash, the economists of the Telegram channel "Black Swan" noted. The share of credit cards in Russia is significantly lower than in developed countries, and this is due to regulatory decisions.

At the same time, the cash feeds the shadow sector: people take out cash loans and pay past the cash register for repairs, services and goods on the market, the economists of the Telegram channel "Black Swan" explained. Credit cards forcibly whitewash the turnover, so it would be logical to encourage their use for the sake of tax collection.

— A credit card is a non—cash payment tool that leaves a digital footprint. Every transaction is visible to the tax service, it goes into the white turnover of retail. A cash loan is a black box. Having received 300-500 thousand rubles in cash, people can easily take them to the gray zone, the analysts of the Telegram channel Proeconomics added.

At the same time, statistics confirm the departure of clients from banks to MFIs, Akhmed Yusupov noted. By the beginning of 2025, the share of such "refuseniks" had grown from 8% to almost 15%. In the first half of the year, the issuance of loans from MFIs increased by 61%, and the portfolio exceeded 700 billion rubles. At the same time, the share of delinquencies among clients of MFIs has reached 31% — this is a real debt pit for millions of Russians.

— People borrow at inflated interest rates not because of a good life, but because banks are closed to them. Formally, the regulator protects citizens from over—crediting, but in practice it pushes them to more expensive and risky loans," Akhmed Yusupov explained.

In 2025, the number of MFIs' clients increased by 3.2 million people, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At the same time, borrowers who still have a loan or a bank card have decreased by 200-400 thousand. This shows that when applying to MFIs, bank customers do not completely abandon their debts in banks.

— However, the overregulation of credit cards can increase the rate of transfer of clients to MFIs, — Milchakova emphasized.

How to adjust credit card regulation

In most countries, including the United States, the EU, Canada and China, banks can unilaterally raise rates on new credit card transactions, DRT analysts explained. Borrowers must be notified — they have the right to refuse the new conditions by closing the card and paying off the debt at the old rate. This is not allowed in Russia, and such a ban looks excessive, they say.

It is absolutely appropriate to focus on foreign experience, where there are almost no systemic risks in this segment of credit cards, and the requirements for banks are milder, said economist Grigory Bazhenov. He added that lenders can be allowed to change rates for new operations — this will definitely not be a problem for the regulator.

In addition, when assessing the debt burden, the Central Bank could look at the real behavior of borrowers and their actual debt, rather than at theoretical limits, Akhmed Yusupov noted. In addition, it is important to assess risks based on the client's experience: a person with a long credit history should not be assessed as strictly as a beginner. He warned that until the regulator changes its approach, Russians will go to MFIs, where they will be offered high rates and the risk of falling into debt.

Balancing accessibility and sustainability is a difficult task. But precisely fine-tuning the parameters, Maria Brodovskaya concluded, is able to support the development of the credit card market without excessive risks for the financial system.