Saving the drowning: the House of Representatives passed Trump's electoral reform
The lower house of the US Congress has approved the bill "On the protection of the right to vote of American voters" (SAVE America Act). According to the bill, employees of polling stations in all states will have to require identification (ID) from voters when voting. Experts are confident that this initiative is the biggest electoral reform in the last 20 years. What is known about the new law, as well as what risks and prospects await the United States in connection with its adoption, is in the Izvestia article.
What is known about the bill and the vote
The U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of the bill "On the protection of the right to vote of American voters." The initiative requires the presentation of a photo identification card at the elections to confirm citizenship in the entire United States. The law was supported by 218 congressmen, mostly representatives of the Republican Party, while 213 people opposed it.
Additionally, the law provides for criminal liability for election commission employees who register someone without an ID for elections. Postal voting controls will also be tightened: sending an envelope from abroad will require a special reason, such as military service abroad. This was the case until 2016-2018, when large-scale scandals related to electoral fraud began.
Experts believe that the SAVE America Act is the biggest electoral reform in the last 20 years. If the initiative passes through the U.S. Senate, the upper house of Congress, where Democrats can block it, then voting by non—citizens of the United States will become illegal.
Now in several states where Democrats are in power, you can vote without having to show any documents. A signature or an affidavit statement is sufficient. We are talking not only about the "big three" — New York, California and Illinois, but also swing states such as Pennsylvania and Nevada. Currently, there are 14 such states in the United States.
Representatives of the Republican Party are actively discussing tactics that could help them pass the law through the upper house of the US Congress. In order for the initiative to be accepted, it needs to cross the threshold of 60 votes and overcome the filibuster. The ideas of the conservatives are completely different — from attempts to pressure the Democrats to including the bill in the list of mandatory for approval.
However, attempts to convince Democrats to speak out in favor may have a detrimental effect on the adoption of the initiative. For example, this year's bill lost the support of senators, who voted 102 votes in its favor last year. Of the four moderate Democrats — Ed Keyes (Hawaii), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Glezenkamp Perez (Washington) — who supported the old version of the law, only Cuellar voted in favor this time. The previous version did not include the requirement to provide a voter ID. For postal voting, it was enough to present a photocopy of a government-issued certificate or a written statement with the last four digits of the social security number stating that it was impossible to obtain a copy.
The next US presidential election is scheduled for 2028, but midterm elections to the US House of Representatives and the US Senate will be held in November this year. The adoption of the bill is an attempt by the Trump team to strengthen its own position, as well as to avoid the falsification and ballot stuffing practiced by the Democrats.
Electoral tricks
It is becoming clear that the Democrats will try to block the bill in the Senate. Currently, the Republicans have 53 seats in the upper house of the US Congress, while the Democrats have 45. There is a high probability that the latter will resist the adoption of the initiative, as it may become an obstacle to victory in both the midterm and federal elections.
On the eve of the US elections, political scandals periodically arise. For example, in January 2024, the Florida authorities decided to clean up the electoral rolls and found about a million dead souls in them. Immediately after the removal procedure, the share of Democrats among the state's voters fell by 10%, which is almost 500 thousand people, while the number of Republicans decreased by only 3%, or about 150 thousand voters. After that, Trump began recruiting "his" lawyers and observers to the points in order to avoid a repeat of the 2020 scenario.
American political scientist Malek Dudakov doubts that the SAVE America Act will be able to pass through the US Senate. The expert is sure that representatives of both parties may have complaints against each other: Republicans will promote the initiative, and Democrats will try to freeze it.
— I doubt that this bill will be passed. During the fight in the US Senate, Republicans will use the Democrats' unwillingness to vote in favor of the initiative as proof that the latter need fraud to win elections. At the same time, Democrats will accuse Republicans of trying to restrict the rights of minorities and married women, who will have to prove the fact of a family name change. In general, it is worth waiting for mutual accusations of sexism and racism on the one hand, and on the other, the desire to rig the results. This is quite a familiar political struggle that is constantly taking place in the United States of America, the expert concluded.
There are other loopholes in US elections that are used to vote in swing states. For example, the following practice was recently revealed: citizens living on the border of states and having dual registration could vote twice. There were also many situations when illegal migrants without citizenship voted in the elections at all.
There is also a practice in the United States of holding early elections, which also raises questions. For example, when voting for the future American president in 2024 in the states of Nevada and Texas, according to voters, electronic machines changed their votes from Trump to Harris. In one case, the machine incorrectly recorded a touch on the touchscreen, in the other, it printed a ballot with the "wrong" candidate.
Prospects and risks
According to a Pew Research Center study, 83% of Americans support the adoption of the bill "On the protection of the right to vote of American voters." Experts believe that American citizens are tired of constant fraud and want fair election results.
Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, shared with Izvestia the opinion that, if adopted, the law could become a reliable support for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections in 2026 and the federal elections in 2028. Although the initiative is likely to strengthen the split in the United States party system, conservatives will be able to implement various beneficial reforms much more easily.
— Today, US citizens are more pro-republican than pro-democratic. The adoption of the bill will be a big victory for Trump and the Republicans precisely because it will actually decide the fate of the upcoming elections. The initiative will provide legal grounds for challenging the elections and avoiding a repeat of the situation in 2020, when Trump announced a recount of votes, and this, in turn, will lead to the purging of "invalid" Democratic ballots, the expert stated.
Malek Dudakov, in turn, told Izvestia about the possible risks that may arise in connection with the approval of the initiative. If the law is passed, the United States may face a new wave of migration unrest. The Trump team is already preparing for them.
— There are rumors that ICE migration police agents are already preparing in advance to work at polling stations on election day. They are massively purchasing armored vehicles and electronic warfare equipment to arrest migrants trying to disrupt the election process. The Democrats will respond with protests and pogroms. The situation in November this year will be very unstable," the expert concluded.
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