The scandal in the noble family: European unity is bursting at the seams
European unity is bursting at the seams due to disagreements on key foreign policy issues. Among them are relations with Russia, the Ukrainian conflict, the aggravation of the confrontation with the United States, as well as the migration and energy crises. The personal conflict between the EU's chief diplomat, Kaya Kallas, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also does not contribute to normalization. How far the countries can go and what it can eventually lead to is in the Izvestia article.
Acceleration of decay
The imminent collapse of the EU was predicted by the journalists of the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. The authors of the publication cite several reasons. One of them is the distrust that has arisen between Germany and France. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was very unhappy with the unsuccessful attempt to expropriate Russian assets, instead of which European countries eventually had to agree on allocations for Kiev in the amount of € 90 billion. In his opinion, French President Emmanuel Macron and the head of the EU Council, Antonio Costa, drove him into such a trap.
The French leader learned about the dissatisfaction of his German colleague and sent a note to Berlin. In it, he stressed that he had warned Merz in advance that it would be pointless to count on success in attempts to expropriate Russian assets. But this only made the situation even more tense.
The positions of Berlin and Paris also differ on the use of Eurobonds: Germany would like to suspend their further issuance and conclude an EU agreement with the countries of the South American Common Market (MERCOSUR). Macron opposed the ratification of the document "to stabilize the internal situation."
In response, Merz proposed the creation of a European defense system based on the individual armies of the EU countries. This idea generally reflects Berlin's desire to redistribute power within the European Union in favor of national governments.
As a result, two camps are beginning to form in the European Union due to disagreements on this issue: one is led by Germany, which is supported by Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meoni, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the second is led by France, which is supported by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the leaders of a number of and the Eastern European countries. But there are other problems that the states cannot agree on.
Karol doesn't like it.
Polish President Karol Nawrocki also expressed dissatisfaction with Germany's actions the day before. He suggested that Berlin, as part of the EU's SAFE militarization program, could try to cash in on Warsaw.
"We are all interested in ensuring that the SAFE program does not become a support for the crisis—stricken economy of our western neighbor," he stressed. The Polish leader drew attention to the fact that, unlike Poland, Germany did not use the SAFE military loan program. Navrotsky demanded to be provided with information about what Berlin is going to spend these funds on.
In September last year, the European Commission announced the allocation of financing in the form of low-interest loans from the EU SAFE militarization fund, which amounts to €150 billion. Large-scale militarization was agreed in Brussels in the spring of 2025, and the creation of a fund was subsequently approved as part of a long-term military construction program until 2030.
President Macron proposed joint loans from EU countries to invest in Europe's competitiveness. Merz opposed it. Germany traditionally does not support joint debt, agreeing to it only in exceptional cases. France, which has a large national debt, on the contrary, is usually interested in introducing Eurobonds.
Ukraine and everything-everything-everything
Another contradiction in the relations of the EU countries is the sudden strengthening of the German Armed Forces. Germany's desire to become a new EU military power greatly worries France. Paris fears that this circumstance will change the political balance of power, because previously there was an unspoken consensus: Germany is responsible for finances in the EU, France is responsible for military issues.
And now Germany plans to spend about 3.5% of GDP — €153 billion - on defense by 2029. At the same time, the country seeks to prevent the transfer of broader powers to the European Commission in matters of arms procurement, planning to rely only on the national military-industrial complex. Politico has public procurement documents at its disposal, which inform about Germany's plans to conduct defense contracts worth €83 billion through the Bundestag by the end of 2026. The long-term German plan includes over 320 weapons programs worth €377 billion.
Nevertheless, the biggest disagreements within the European Union relate to the Ukrainian conflict. More and more countries, guided by a pragmatic foreign policy approach, speak in favor of negotiations with Russia. Hungary and Slovakia lead this group of states, and other EU countries are beginning to speak out more cautiously in favor of negotiations.
The issue of providing Kiev with a new package of financial assistance has also become a stumbling block. Initially, most EU countries were in favor of allocating funds. But corruption scandals in Ukraine have shaken this confidence. Individual countries, primarily Hungary and Slovakia, have expressed disagreement with the scale and forms of support. They note the burden on national budgets and the risks of prolonging the conflict.
In addition, the migration crisis is causing a deep split in the EU due to the countries' disagreement on the distribution of refugees. Countries located in southern Europe, including Italy and Greece, require mandatory quotas for accepting migrants, and Eastern European states are opposed to this. All this forces countries to restore border controls, thereby weakening the Schengen area.
The disagreements also relate to energy security issues. While the EU Council finally approved a complete ban on the import of Russian gas (LNG from January 1, 2027, and pipeline gas from September 30, 2027), Slovakia and Hungary opposed it, calling it energy suicide. The countries promised to fight in court to change this decision.
The situation inside the European Union is also aggravated by serious friction with the United States against the background of threats by American President Donald Trump to annex Greenland and impose tariffs against European states. Pressure from Washington has damaged transatlantic relations and forced the EU to rethink previous ideas about the United States as an unconditional ally. While some countries urge to remain vigilant and be ready to respond to new threats, others confirm their desire to keep the United States as a key ally.
The difference in approaches to what happened in Venezuela also demonstrated the disunity among the Europeans. France and Spain condemned the American operation, considering it a violation of international law, Germany and Austria expressed concern about the legitimacy of the intervention, and Italy, Greece and Sweden supported the end of the dictatorship and the "transition to democracy in Venezuela."
American hegemony is to blame for everything
Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, confirmed in an interview with Izvestia that there are a large number of contradictions and disagreements between European countries on security issues.
"First— they relate to relations with Russia and the assessment of the Russian Federation as a potential threat, as a threat, or as a potential partner for European countries," the political scientist explained.
According to him, the Nordic countries and the Baltic States, and Polandand Germany andI appreciate Russia as a threat. For the states of Southern Europe and some countries of Eastern Europe, as well as for France, Russia is not such an existential threat.
— And hence, respectively, different models of assistance to Ukraine: different levels of military spending, different willingness to help Kiev militarily, etc. Some countries are in favor of dialogue with Russia, some are categorically against it," the expert said.
He believes that the second contradiction within the EU is the different attitude towards the United States, to transatlantic relations, to the role of the United States in Europe and to dependence on Washington.
— This is partly due to the first controversy over Russia. And the countries that are most susceptible to Russophobia and hysteria towards Russia, they are just more willing to accept American hegemony, they are more in favor of large—scale US participation in European affairs and in the field of European security," the expert believes.
He notes that those countries that are less afraid of Russia are less willing to suffer humiliation from the United States and more in favor of European autonomy in the field of security.
— The third is the historical contradictions between European countries related to history, deep fears of Germany, deep antagonisms that existed and latently continue to exist between European countries. And they are now coming to the surface again," the analyst explained.
Suslov believes that these deep contradictions and phobias have been restrained by American hegemony for the time being. However, today, American hegemony over Europe is weakening, and the United States is openly talking about its desire to reduce its involvement in European affairs.
— That is, conditionally, Poles and Germans, Germans and French tolerated each other and smoothed out their contradictions when the Americans dominated them. And when the degree of American hegemony decreases, historical phobias and contradictions immediately come to the surface again.
The political scientist believes that another contradiction between European countries is the economic differences related to the ambitions and development opportunities of the European military—industrial complex. Countries with traditionally strong, developed national military-industrial complexes, such as France, want European money to go to the development of their national military-industrial complexes, they oppose financing the American military-industrial complex.
"States with less developed national military—industrial complexes advocate that a significant part of the money should go to the United States, since they are ready to purchase American weapons," the expert added.
According to him, there is another factor: many countries, including Germany itself, are directly afraid of national German leadership in Europe for historical reasons, either American leadership or close ties with the United States are more acceptable to them.
— There is such a dissolution of the German factor in American hegemony, the analyst summed up.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Kamran Hasanov, a doctor of political science at the University of Salzburg, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the EU summit in the Belgian castle of Alden-Bizen also turned into discord due to a closed meeting of right-wing leaders — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever before the main meeting on migration policy.
— They coordinated positions without the participation of eight countries — Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Slovenia, Malta, the three Baltic states — and Chairman Antonio Costa. Spain, which is considered the fourth EU economy, protested to Rome, saying that such a format "distances the EU from decisions," the expert explained.
The expert also drew attention to how the EU countries want to establish contacts with Moscow. In his opinion, there is now a public demand for dialogue with Russia in the EU.
— France, Italy, Germany, Lithuania, Cyprus and the EU's chief diplomat Kaya Kallas advocate dialogue with Russia. In order for this process to become a trend, the UK's support remains, but even this is not far off," the analyst concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
