Black stripe: Niger is going to war with France
In Niger, they called on the population to prepare for war with France, accusing Paris of seeking to destabilize the African country. This is reported by Jeune Afrique magazine. For more information about a possible conflict, its causes and possible outcomes, see the Izvestia article.
To escalate
General Amadou Ibro said at a rally for young people at the Niamey stadium that Paris was going to start a war against Niger, arguing that his country was responsible for the "deplorable economic situation" in France.
"You know, we are going to war with France, we were not at war, now we are going to war with France," Jeune Afrique magazine quoted him as saying.
He also added that mobilization has been announced in the country in order to prepare for a possible armed conflict with Paris.
France has categorically denied the accusations against it. Colonel Guillaume Vernet, the official representative of the general staff of the French armed forces, said that there was "no question of any intervention by his country," adding that this was "clearly an information war" unleashed by Niger.
Deputy Director of the Center for African Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) Vsevolod Sviridov, in an interview with Izvestia, drew attention to the fact that a high-ranking Nigerian official did not talk about mobilization for war with France, but it is aimed, among other things, at preparing for a possible war with the Fifth Republic.
— We are not talking about any war yet. The mobilization, which was indeed announced in December, as far as we can tell, is primarily aimed at combating internal threats: terrorists, jihadists and various criminal groups. The potential threat from France is being used here to consolidate society. A full—scale war between Niger and France, a war in the sense in which we used to think, is unlikely now," the expert explains.
Besides, Vsevolod Sviridov notes, it is important to understand who is spreading this information. Attention to Amadou Ibro's statement was drawn by the French media Jeune Afrique, which found a quote from the general when he spoke at a rally at the stadium. The Africanist points out that this is in no way an official statement by any authority, army, general staff or president.
"Statements at a rally are a specific genre that rarely has anything to do with real political decisions," says Vsevolod Sviridov.
Valentin Bianchi, a leading expert at the HSE Center for African Studies, also believes that the likelihood of a real war between the two countries is virtually zero. He attributes this to the absence of representatives of the French armed forces in the territory accessible by the troops of Niger.
"Such a statement is not a formal declaration of war, but a rhetorical escalation marking the transition from a diplomatic conflict to a potential confrontation," explains Valentin Bianchi.
Goals and reasons
According to Vsevolod Sviridov, the statement primarily has domestic political goals: consolidation, support for the regime and its policies.
— The only threat that France poses to Niger is Paris' attempts to overthrow the current regime. France really has certain levers for this," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.
It is impossible to talk about a full-scale confrontation, the expert believes, but an attempt at a counter-coup and the coming to power of Paris-oriented forces is possible. France, in his opinion, may try to find support among part of the military and business elite to remove the current government, but Niger itself will not go to war on Paris.
Valentin Bianchi cites two possible reasons for Amadou Ibro's statement. The first of them is to bargain with France on economic issues. He adds that despite the fact that the key issue of uranium supplies has already been resolved, the countries may have a number of other trade and economic interactions that are being negotiated.
The expert cites the need for internal consolidation against the background of the country's economic difficulties as the second reason.
"One can hardly expect the fundamental consequences of such a statement, although it will further polarize the foreign policy situation for the Sahel countries," the expert believes.
The Sahara-Sahel Zone (Sahel) is a strip of land running along the southern border of the Sahara. Its length is 3.9 thousand km from the Atlantic Ocean in the west and to the Red Sea in the east. This Territory includes Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Without uranium
According to data for 2024, Niger was the seventh largest producer of uranium in the world. This resource was discovered in 1957 by the Bureau of Geological and Mining Research of France. In 1958, after Niger gained independence, Paris signed a number of agreements with it that provided the country with privileged access to raw materials.
After the coup in 2023, the conflict between Niger and the French company Orano escalated, which was accompanied by accusations against France of supporting terrorism. In 2024, it became known that Orano had signed an agreement with the Government of Niger to extend the life of the country's only uranium mine until 2040. In 2025, Niger announced the nationalization of the large Somair uranium project, which it jointly owns with Orano. The French company accounts for about 63% of Somair shares, the rest is controlled by the state-owned company of Niger Sopamin.
The nationalization is part of a wave of asset seizures in the Sahel, where the governments of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali are taking tougher measures against international mining companies. Niger accused Orano of a number of violations, including insufficient funding and a "campaign to poison" the government of Niger.
Vsevolod Sviridov considers it unlikely that there is a connection between the announcement of preparations for war with France and its ousting from the region. The expert attributes this to the fact that uranium production at mines in Niger has decreased fourfold over the past 10 years.
—Even before the military coup, production at two of the three main mines was stopped at Orano,— he explained.
The expert also added that the problem of uranium shortage for France has already been solved. In this regard, Vsevolod Sviridov doubts that the factors of restoring control over these mines may have a geopolitical background.
"Economically, France currently has few interests in Niger to start a full—scale war there, and interference in Niger's internal affairs may be primarily due to political and reputational reasons," the expert concludes.
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