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Revolution on the horizon: what will the redistribution of power in Kyrgyzstan lead to?
Kyrgyzstan has entered a period of political turbulence. President Sadyr Japarov dismissed his closest associate, the head of the State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiev, and also split off the border service and the state security service from the department, against this background, the speaker of the country's parliament also left the post. Izvestia dealt with the causes and consequences of these decisions.
What happened
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has purged the entire power elite of the country. On February 10, he dismissed Kamchybek Tashiev, head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The press secretary of the head of state commented on the decision with the intention to prevent a split in society and between government agencies, to strengthen unity.
It is known that Tashiev himself was being treated in Germany at that moment. In his commentary, he said that the president's decision came as a complete surprise to him. "I am sad to leave colleagues and subordinates, each of whom deserves gratitude. The only thing that upsets me is that they didn't let me say goodbye to the staff," he stressed.
Kamchybek Tashiyev
Japarov also dismissed three deputies Tashiyev and Secretary of the Security Council Rustam Mamasadykov. In addition, a rapid unbundling of the GKNB has been carried out. The border guard service was withdrawn from the subordination of the special service, which was transformed into an independent agency. A separate State Security Service has also been established on the basis of one of the divisions of the State Committee for National Security, which will be directly subordinate to the President.
Finally, on February 12, the speaker of the country's parliament, Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu, who was considered a protege of Kamchybek Tashiev, announced his resignation. In his statement, he noted that he made the decision voluntarily, no one put pressure on him. "I don't serve one or two people, I only serve the state and the people," he said.
What will be the consequences
Japarov and Tashiev came to power in Kyrgyzstan in the fall of 2020. Then another revolution took place in the country, as a result of which the head of state Sooronbai Jeenbekov lost his post. As a result of those events, Japarov became president, and Tashiev took control of the security forces, heading the State Committee for National Security. It was also important that the former represented the north of the country, and the latter the south, so that the tandem could balance between the various clans.
In public, both leaders emphasized that they were connected not only by business relations, but also by close personal friendship. Behind the scenes, however, more and more contradictions were accumulating. The fact is that Tashiev loved personal PR and often went far beyond his authority. For example, he could criticize members of the government, speak out on economic issues, or report on the repair of a particular social facility.
It was also noticeable at the national level. So, in 2023, a large—scale anti-criminal campaign was carried out in the country under his leadership - the main thief in the law, Kamchi Kolbaev, was shot dead during his arrest, many other authorities were sent to jail or forced out of the country. In addition, Tashiev led the Kyrgyz delegation in negotiations to resolve border disputes with Tajikistan.
Against this background, there was talk in the country that at some point the head of the State Committee for National Security might move to the presidential chair. The immediate trigger for the current sweep was the so-called letter 75, an appeal addressed to Sadyr Japarov with a request to hold early presidential elections. The authors of this message stressed that the current head of state was elected under the old constitution, so he needs to renew his powers.
It is characteristic that after the publication of this letter, three signatories were detained, the remaining 72 were interrogated. The main question now is what to expect next. So far, it seems that Sadyr Japarov is acting quite confidently, will be able to shuffle the leadership of law enforcement agencies and take full power into his own hands. In this sense, it is important that Tashiev does not express any public displeasure.
In the long run, however, the situation looks explosive. Purges in the State Committee for National Security, the Interior Ministry and the army may cause discontent among officers loyal to Tashiev. In addition, without his right-hand man, it will be more difficult for Japarov to control the southern regions of the country. Finally, the socio-economic situation in the country leaves much to be desired. All this may lead to a destabilization of the situation at some point.
A rally of Sadyr Japarov's supporters in Bishkek in 2020
It should be added that Kyrgyzstan has a rich experience of various revolutions and riots. During the years of independence, the government in the country has changed three times "across the street." Only one president, Almazbek Atambayev, voluntarily and on time left his post after the expiration of his powers, although he later went to jail. In such circumstances, Sadyr Japarov faces a non-trivial task to change the established tradition.
An additional question is what all this means for Russia. Most of the current Kyrgyz politicians advocate close relations with Moscow, none of them talks about any break. In this sense, the replacement of one or another leader is unlikely to change anything. The most dangerous option is large—scale and long-term destabilization, in such a scenario it will be difficult to stay away, because Kyrgyzstan, although it does not border Russia, is a member of the EAEU and the CSTO.
What the experts say
Igor Shestakov, a Kyrgyz political scientist and director of the Oi Ordo Center for Expert Initiatives, emphasizes that during the current conflict it was actually about the early resignation of the president.
— A group of 75 people, which included former officials and well-known public figures, offered Sadyr Japarov to hold early elections, that is, they actually demanded that he resign. The head of state obviously took it with hostility, now some of the authors of the appeal are under investigation," he explains.
The expert adds that the political tandem that existed for five years has ceased to exist.
— The date of the new elections should be determined in the near future, the president has already sent a corresponding request to the Constitutional Court. It is obvious that Sadyr Japarov will nominate his candidacy. Kamchybek Tashiev's participation is questionable. Previously, he promised not to participate in electoral procedures, but then he was in the civil service, and now he has become a free man. In any case, new elections will not be easy," he says.
Shestakov emphasizes that the current personnel changes can strengthen the position of pro-Russian forces in the country.
— You can judge at least by the position of the speaker of parliament. The previous chairman, Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu, supported laws to reduce the role of the Russian language and erase Soviet names in toponymy. The new speaker, Marlen Mamataliev, is part of the president's staff, has participated in many events organized by the Russian embassy, and is more closely associated with Russia, he argues.
Rustam Burnashev, a political scientist and expert on Central Asian countries, says that the vertical of power is strengthening in Kyrgyzstan.
President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov
— In recent years, the country has been governed by a kind of duumvirate, now power is consolidated in the hands of Sadyr Japarov. It seems to me that he has a good chance of success. Apparently, he coordinated his actions with the Interior Ministry and the army, and the National Security Committee is also not making any attempts to change anything. Plus, Tashiev himself is currently undergoing treatment outside the country, so he has few opportunities to influence anything. Of course, Kyrgyzstan has a rich tradition of street protests, but so far everything looks pretty casual," he notes.
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