The economist predicted the Central Bank of Russia's rate at 16% in February.

At a meeting on February 13, 2026, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) may leave the key rate at 16%, despite inflationary risks and rising prices at the beginning of the year. Capital Lab expert Evgeny Shatov told Izvestia about this on February 11.

According to the expert, at the beginning of the year, inflation in Russia showed an increase: prices increased by 1.9%, and annual inflation was about 6.4%. The market attributes its acceleration to the effect of the VAT increase, Shatov explained, and therefore, under these conditions, the regulator can adhere to two main scenarios at the meeting.

According to the baseline scenario, the Central Bank will keep the rate at 16%, as it is still above the target level of 4%. Such a move will be perceived neutrally by the market and moderately positive for the ruble.

An alternative scenario suggests that the Central Bank may reduce the rate by 25-50 basis points, bringing it to 15.5-15.75%. This will be the beginning of a soft rate reduction cycle for the market, but further steps will depend on inflation indicators. Such a move would have a positive impact on stocks, but would weaken the ruble slightly.

"There is also an unexpected scenario involving an increase in the rate to 16.5%. This is possible only if the Central Bank sees a systemic acceleration of inflation, a sharp deterioration in expectations, secondary effects (wages, prices) or signs of credit overheating. This scenario now looks unlikely: it is easier for the regulator to hold 16% for longer than to raise the rate again if there is no obvious change in the trend towards slowing inflation. For the market, this means a strengthening of the ruble, pressure on stocks and long OFZs, and an increase in the cost of financing for businesses," Shatov said.

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Dmitry Dombrovsky, creator of high-yield strategies and founder of O3 Finance, who is listed in the register of investment advisers of the Bank of Russia, said on February 7 that reducing the Central Bank's key rate requires depositors to plan ahead and redistribute funds into alternative instruments in order to maintain profitability. Dombrowski called fixed coupon bonds the first and most logical instrument for the transition.

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