Betting on pressure: Netanyahu goes to Trump with an Iranian agenda

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House. The main topic is the situation in the Middle East, primarily around Iran. West Jerusalem is skeptical about attempts to conclude a nuclear deal with Tehran and may try to persuade Washington to a military scenario. What is the price of a possible breakdown of negotiations and the main expectations from the meeting — in the Izvestia article.

What did Netanyahu go with

Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the most frequent foreign guests of the White House. The current meeting with Donald Trump will be his seventh in the last year. The previous visit took place on December 29 and proved to be a success for Tel Aviv. In the following weeks, Washington's rhetoric became tougher — amid the protests in Tehran, the United States increased pressure on the Islamic Republic and sent an armada of ships to its shores.

Iran is once again at the center of the current negotiations. Last Friday, negotiations between the American and Iranian delegations took place in Oman. Both sides assessed them positively. The head of the republic's Foreign Ministry, Abbas Araqchi, said that Tehran is preparing a proposal for an agreement that should guarantee the peaceful use of the atom: for the production of electricity, medicines and agricultural development. At the same time, however, he expressed doubts about the seriousness of the US intentions to "conduct genuine negotiations."

But Trump, judging by his statements, is counting on a diplomatic solution. According to him, the current negotiation process differs significantly from previous rounds, primarily due to the 12-day war in June 2025. The signals from Washington are now being taken more seriously in Tehran, the American leader is convinced.

"Either we will make a deal, or we will have to do something very tough, like last time," the politician said. The second round of negotiations is expected to take place next week.

However, this is where the main differences in the positions of the allies begin. If Trump allows compromise while maintaining pressure, then West Jerusalem is skeptical about the prospect of a deal. According to American media reports, Netanyahu will try to persuade Trump to a military scenario against Iran. Israel claims that if no action is taken, Tehran will be able to produce up to two thousand new ballistic missiles within a few weeks.

Disagreements remain on the issue of the Gaza Strip. The United States may announce the start of the second phase of the peace settlement as early as February 18, at the first meeting of the so—called "Peace Council." It is assumed that the management of the sector and its restoration will be transferred to the Palestinian technocratic committee. In West Jerusalem, they insist that any restoration of Gaza is possible only after the complete demilitarization of Hamas.

According to experts, the discrepancies are strategic in nature. The Trump administration is striving for a quick and tangible result that can be presented to the international community as confirmation of the effectiveness of American policy, political analyst Ilgar Velizade tells Izvestia.

— It is essential for Israel to receive reliable guarantees that Iran will stop developing its nuclear program, as well as curtail projects related to ballistic missiles and other elements of military infrastructure. These issues, in fact, will be the key issues in the negotiations in Washington," he said.

The search for compromises

Details of the negotiations in Oman have not been officially disclosed. However, Qatar's Al-Jazeera reported that one of the proposals under discussion involved Iran's commitment to abandon uranium enrichment for a period of three years, after which the enrichment level could be limited to below 1.5%.

At the same time, the United States tried to expand the negotiating agenda to include issues of ballistic missiles and the possibility of exporting highly enriched uranium stocks to third countries. However, Tehran has made it clear that it is ready to discuss exclusively the nuclear program.

According to RIAC expert Anton Mardasov, what is happening is more like a deliberate delaying of negotiations. Such a scenario could be beneficial to Israel and the United States: Iran remains in a state of constant strategic tension, while its opponents receive additional time to strengthen missile defense and prepare for a possible military option.

— If the option of a new nuclear deal can still be imagined, then the missile program remains a key element of national security for Tehran. That is why the current situation in many ways resembles a delay in time," the specialist explains.

At the same time, despite the harsh rhetoric, analysts doubt that the United States is ready for a large-scale military scenario against Iran. Rather, Washington will seek a compromise.

— The price of disrupting negotiations is too high. No one is interested in a big war with Iran. The United States is not ready for a ground operation at this stage, and airstrikes alone cannot radically change the situation. Therefore, further developments remain open," Velizade believes.

In addition, the escalation is increasing tensions throughout the region. Neighboring States are already concerned and oppose the military scenario, as it carries serious risks.

— We are talking about possible disruptions of logistics routes, the complication of oil and gas supplies to world markets and, as a result, a decrease in the incomes of the countries of the region. Humanitarian consequences, including refugee flows, are also possible. The prospect of another unstable state appearing nearby, similar to Afghanistan or Yemen, does not suit anyone," the expert concluded.

But the United States will not abandon its goals either. According to Anton Mardasov, Trump's strategy in the Middle East is based on several principles. This is maximum pressure on Iran in order to either reach an agreement on favorable terms for Washington, or weaken its regional positions.

According to him, Trump is interested in closer cooperation with the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf. In particular, they are being given more responsibility for their own security, while their military systems are increasingly being integrated with American ones. And also in strengthening ties between the countries of the region, including through the expansion of the Abraham Agreements.

However, Trump prefers solutions that produce a quick and demonstrative result, whether it's a diplomatic deal or a military action with limited costs for the United States. All this creates an additional element of unpredictability," concluded Mardasov.