HR expert named the reasons for a possible increase in unemployment in 2026

Expert Abgaryan: staff shortage will increase in logistics and transport

Thu, 02/12/2026 - 00:25

Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard Kornienko

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Despite the record low unemployment rate, the Russian labor market may face new imbalances in 2026 due to demographics, technological changes, and industry distortions. Lusine Abgaryan, Chief Operating Officer of Ventra HR Holding, told Izvestia about this.

Hiring without demand: business's need for workers has dropped to a minimum in six years

How will this affect salaries and who else are companies willing to compete for?

According to her, at the beginning of the year, there were about 4.2 million open vacancies in the economy, which was the highest in two decades, while the unemployment rate remained at 2.3%.

"This is a clear example of a structural gap: there are enough people in the market, but employers cannot close positions due to a lack of necessary competencies," Abgaryan explained.

The expert noted that the most acute personnel shortage remains among working professions, qualified engineers, builders and IT specialists, especially in the field of cybersecurity and domestic software development. According to her, additional pressure is created by large government programs and import substitution, which stimulate demand for technical personnel.

"The low birth rate in the 1990s and early 2000s has a direct impact on the market today: the number of people of working age is noticeably lower than the number of open positions. At the same time, companies are introducing new technologies and need specialists with skills that simply did not exist before," she stressed.

Abgaryan added that pharmaceutical companies and the agro-industrial sector are most actively hiring in 2026. According to her, the growth in drug production and agricultural exports is accompanied by demand not only for workers, but also for engineers, researchers, marketers and digitalization specialists.

"Agricultural holdings are implementing drones, precision farming systems, and data analytics. This creates a need for agricultural engineers, veterinarians with digital competencies, and software developers," the expert noted.

She also highlighted key skills that will help applicants stay in demand in an increasingly competitive environment.

"First of all, it is adaptability and stress tolerance, then analytical thinking and the ability to work with numbers, as well as technological efficiency. It is necessary not only to know about artificial intelligence, but to understand how to use it in work to increase efficiency," she said.

According to Abgaryan, it is the combination of flexibility, digital competencies and the ability to learn quickly that will determine the success of workers in the labor market in 2026.