Experts have announced a potential increase in US interest in Russian aluminum

The issue of aluminum supplies from Russia may become relevant for the United States, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. According to their estimates, electricity prices and the desire to compete with China will spur interest in the Russian metal.

Ilya Gryaznov, director of S+Consulting, noted that the restrictive measures against imports to the United States, including the displacement of Russian aluminum, led to the entry of new players from the Middle East into the world market, but did not help revive their own metallurgical industry. "Theoretically, under these conditions, the issue of Russian aluminum supplies may again become relevant for the United States. In particular, for effective competition with Beijing, which, taking advantage of the moment, buys "green" Russian aluminum today," the expert believes.

Gryaznov noted that in the United States, according to the local aluminum association, there are only four operating aluminum production plants compared to 24 in 2000. "The reasons are clear: aluminum production is extremely energy—intensive, 40% of the cost of metal is electricity," said the director of S+Consulting. The rise in electricity prices supports the boom in the construction of data centers, Gryaznov is sure. According to his estimates, by 2030, the energy consumption of this sector in the United States will almost double compared to the level of 2025.

The United States has already begun to close access to its market for Russian aluminum since 2018, Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, recalled. "As a result, new production facilities are being rapidly launched in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries against the backdrop of dynamic global demand. Their producers gain a relative advantage due to low energy prices," he said.

According to experts, Russia has now become the largest supplier of aluminum to China, which, unlike Western countries, does not close its market to our metal. At the same time, he uses the situation to obtain noticeable price preferences and, by purchasing Russian "green" aluminum, continues to increase exports of semi-finished products and finished products.

According to Kopeikin, the demand for lifting restrictions on Russian exports looks like a logical part of the ongoing negotiation process. He added that the conditions for conducting economic activity in the country significantly depend on the policy being pursued.

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