Without the Russian national team, the Olympic hockey tournament loses its entertainment value. And here's why

On February 11, the men's ice hockey tournament starts at the Olympic Games in Milan, which is attended by NHL players. The Russian national team, which qualified for it, was not allowed to participate. Taking into account what its composition could be, it would become a contender for at least bronze medals. Without the Russian team, the competition will become less competitive and will gain intrigue only closer to the semifinals. How the tournament will turn out without the Russian national team is in the Izvestia article.

Why is there no Russian national team

● The Russian men's national ice hockey team, which won silver medals at the Olympic Games in 2022 and gold in 2018, was not allowed to participate in the next Olympic tournament. Shortly after the Beijing Games, the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) suspended the Russian and Belarusian teams from international competitions and extends the ban on participation every year. In its decisions, the organization refers to the "security situation" and the inability to provide the necessary conditions for holding tournaments in the event of the return of the national teams.

● At the same time, the Russian national team was able to fulfill the selection criteria for the Olympic Games and could become one of the 12 teams competing in Milan these days. In 2023, the national team ranking was published, in which the top eight teams automatically qualified for the Olympics. Russia then took the third place, despite the fact that it did not compete at the World Championships in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, all the other participants were determined, and then the Russian national team was still formally among the selected teams. The group stage opponents were even determined — the Russians would have started the tournament in Milan with matches against the USA, Slovakia and Latvia.

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● In 2025, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) softened its position on the admission of Russian athletes to the Games and called on international federations to give a chance to compete in Milan under a neutral flag. However, this did not affect hockey. After the IIHF ban was extended for the 2025/26 season, the Russian men's national team was officially replaced by France, which last competed at the Games in 2002 and took 14th place at that time.

What could the Russian national team be like

● The Olympic Hockey tournament in Italy will be particularly important because it is the first time since 2014 that players from the National Hockey League (NHL) are competing. At the last two Games, the league's leadership did not let its hockey players go, but this time they agreed to pause the season and give their stars a chance at Olympic medals, which hockey players dream of no less than the Stanley Cup.

● The previous two Olympics have shown that if NHL hockey players stay in North America, then Russia's chances of winning medals increase. Gold in Pyeongchang and silver in Beijing were won by players from the domestic Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), which firmly held the status of the second most powerful league in the world. Most of the teams competing for medals suffered too much loss due to the NHL's decision to skip, while the Russian players had not only a competitive environment to prepare for the Games, but also increased motivation. At that time, the lack of Enhaelists in the Russian national team was compensated for most painlessly compared to other teams.

However, this does not mean that the Russian team would have been left with nothing at a tournament with full admission for the best players in the world. On the contrary, the current NHL season has shown that the Russian national team would have a chance to get on the podium, and with a bit of luck, reach the finals for the third time in a row. This, by the way, is confirmed by a survey conducted among NHL players on the eve of the Olympics. More than half of them believe that the Russians could win bronze in Milan, another 20% said they could take silver, and 8.5% of respondents predicted gold. Only 12% of hockey players felt that the Russian national team would have no chance of winning a medal.

● The Russian national team is primarily favored by the training of goalkeepers, which often determines the result in such short-lived tournaments. Andrey Vasilevsky holds the lead in NHL wins this season and is among the leaders in the percentage of reflected goals and the average number of goals. Vasilevsky won eight of the ten matches that ended in overtime or shootout, which speaks to his brilliant form. Now he can be called the best goalkeeper in the world. Sergei Bobrovsky and Ilya Sorokin, who could have confidently backed up in the midst of the Olympic tournament, left not far from him.

● If the Russian national team has not had problems with goalkeepers for a long time, then questions about defense have often arisen. However, right now the defenders have made significant progress and are increasingly becoming indispensable in their clubs. A defensive team consisting of Mikhail Sergachev, Sergey Gavrikov, Dmitry Orlov, Ivan Provorov, Nikita Zadorov, Artyom Zubov, Alexander Romanov and the younger Yan Kuznetsov would be more reliable than any other eight of the Russian national team in the last decade. Of course, it is difficult to compare it with the powerful defenders of Canada, the USA and Sweden, but there is definitely no lag behind them.

● Another strong feature of the Russian national team could be the extreme strikers. Kirill Kaprizov and Nikita Kucherov are performing well this season, and Artemy Panarin and Andrey Svechnikov are maintaining a high level. Alexander Ovechkin would still have made a significant contribution, not only through skill, but also through motivation to win his first medal 20 years after his Olympic debut. With them, the issue of forming the first two attack triples would practically be solved.

● The only thing in which the Russian national team is noticeably lagging behind other leading national teams is the presence of proven central strikers. The best Russian player in this position in the NHL is now 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin, who is still playing on the right after an injury. He is followed by Marat Khusnutdinov, who has only 26 points in 52 matches. There is a high probability that 21-year-old Roman Kanzerov, who is having a great season in the KHL, would have to become the leader.

How will the tournament turn out without the Russian national team

● You can be sure that without the Russian national team, the Olympic tournament will not be as competitive and interesting as it could have been. It's not just that more of the best hockey players in the world would come to Milan, but the circle of favorites has expanded. The replacement of the Russian team with the French team led to a shuffle of teams in the group stage, which lost several matches at once that could attract TV audiences in both Europe and North America.

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● If earlier it was assumed that the Olympic tournament would begin with the matches of Canada against Sweden and Russia against the USA, now the most intriguing confrontation before the playoffs will be the game of Finland and Sweden. It is very likely that they and both North American national teams will receive direct tickets to the quarterfinals, which will make the 1/8 finals stage devoid of any intrigue. At the same time, whoever makes up the quarterfinal pairs, the result in them will also be practically a foregone conclusion, since no other team, except the four already mentioned, claims to be seriously competing for medals.

If one of the second-tier teams, like the Czech Republic or Switzerland, manages to make it to the semifinals, it will determine the top three winners even faster. Olympic tournaments with NHL players present almost no surprises in the decisive stages and leave the "dark horses" in fourth place. The Milan Olympics will have very little nerve left, which is so necessary for hockey players to show their best moral and volitional qualities.

● In the final, the first thing to look forward to is the meeting between Canada and the United States. The advantage of these two teams over all other participants in terms of the level of play and the number of masters is too great. The gold medal match will certainly be a hockey celebration, but it won't last very long, whereas it would have started with the Russian national team from the very first days.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• by Radio Sputnik columnist Alexander Kuzmak.