Peter of creation: what to expect from Humennik at the OI

This Tuesday, February 10, the men's Olympic tournament with 29 participants starts in Milan. Our Petr Gumennik will start at number one at 20:30 Moscow time. Hopefully, he will hold the lead for a long time, ideally until the very last group of participants, in which the leaders of the rating will ride. The start in the first numbers is bad, because the judges are only trying on and holding back the scores, and good — there is no pressure from other people's results. About what we can expect in the men's tournament and whether Peter's claims to a medal are real, see the Izvestia article.

The complexity of the forecast

First of all, it's worth saying that there are so many variables in this equation that any ChatGPT will break. Everything has happened in the history of the Olympics, but changing one of the programs in an emergency three days before the performance due to copyrights, confusion with the costume, absence from international competitions for four years, starting in the first warm-up if the real rating does not match — all this makes the forecast extremely difficult, and the participation of a Russian is unique.

Let's fix the circumstances first.:

1. Humennik has not been at international tournaments for more than four years, with the exception of the Olympic selection. In Russia, he periodically scored points from the main favorite of the Olympic Games Ilya Malinin, he was supported by the federation, but it is difficult to estimate how much 320 Russian points are worth in the international arena. Many experts are inclined to believe that the ceiling of Humennik's grades for two class performances is around 285 points.

2. Gumennik starts at the beginning and with a new program. This is a reason for the judges to find fault not with technical, but with component indicators — composition, performance, and the way movements fit into the music. It's a reason for someone. Or maybe there will be those who will keep in mind the complexity of the situation for Peter and become more loyal.

3. In the same way, we do not know the relationship of the judges to the uncircumcised acts that Peter commits. A lot depends on the bar that the technical team will set (three people, separate from the judging panel).

4. We don't even fully know Peter's content for the short program. In the free skate, you should probably expect five fours, but in the short, instead of a quadruple Lutz, a quadruple salchow is announced. And it is quite possible that he will bring more points, because Peter performs it better.

So which place does Humennik claim?

The fifth and almost the main factor influencing the result is the abundance of rivals. According to the theory of probability, this reduces the chances of a positive result, but men are extremely unstable abroad this season. Some people did not approach the Olympics in optimal shape — Ilya Malinin no longer looks like an absolute favorite. Others, on the contrary, can "fight back" — and it was already clear from the commander how good Matteo Rizzo or Yuma Kagiyama were. We didn't see many of them at all, like Mikhail Shaidorov from Kazakhstan.

Pyotr Gumennik's Olympic Calculation: risk, program, and Medal chances

The athlete is known for striving for high technical achievements

Circumstances against

The logical basis for making forecasts is the statistics of the season. According to the best result of the season in the world, Humennik closes the top ten. But here we must remember that Peter had only one Olympic selection in Beijing, and the Russian did not do it perfectly, losing about 15 points in the free skate.

The participants of the Olympiad according to the best result of the season:

1. Ilya Malinin — 333.81

2. Yuma Kagiyama — 302.41

3. Shun Sato — 292.08

4. Daniel Grassl — 288.72

5. Mikhail Shaidorov — 282,22

6. Adam Xiao Him Fa — 280.95

7. Kao Miura — 273.73

8. Joon Hwang Cha — 273.62

9. Nika Egadze — 273.00

10. Peter Gumennik — 262.82

In short, the alignment looks like this: Ilya Malinin and Yuma Kagiyama are ahead with a margin, and then there is a large pool of about seven contenders for bronze, which includes Peter. Unfortunately, subjective factors will also decide in this struggle. And although foreigners admire Humennik's work and artistry, circumstances play against him — and no one will drag our neutral up.

Therefore, it is necessary to treat this tournament calmly and philosophically, as, apparently, Peter does. Do what you have to do, and come what may. A place in the top five can already be considered a success, and a medal is an incredible breakthrough. But nothing prevents us from believing in him.