Successor's visit: Why is the US Vice President flying to Armenia and Azerbaijan

US Vice President Jay D. Vance went on a visit to Transcaucasia. He will visit Armenia on February 9-10, and Azerbaijan on February 10-11. According to official reports, the main item on the agenda will be the TRIPP project, that is, the route from Azerbaijan to Turkey. Unofficially, it is reported that the parties may also discuss the American operation against Iran. Izvestia investigated the situation.

Bypassing Georgia

US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, who is often called Donald Trump's successor, will visit Transcaucasia on February 9-11. This is the first visit of this level to the region in many years. For example, the first and last time a U.S. vice president visited Azerbaijan was in 2008, when Dick Cheney, the second person in the George W. Bush administration, visited the republic.

It is now known that Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Halberg is traveling with Vance. In general, there are a number of political and economic issues on the agenda. "The Vice President will visit both countries to continue our efforts and promote Trump's course for international peace and prosperity," Donald Trump himself said on his social network.

Interestingly, Georgia has been the favorite of Americans in the region for many years. It was Tbilisi that the US president visited in 2005, and in 2009 the parties signed a strategic partnership agreement. Right now, Washington clearly has other priorities, so Vance is not going to visit Georgia.

A local political scandal broke out in Tbilisi in this regard. The opposition accused the government of giving up its foreign policy positions. The authorities responded by saying that the previous American administration of Joe Biden was to blame for everything, which created a "difficult context" for bilateral relations.

In recent days, the Georgian leadership has been trying to improve the situation. Deputy Foreign Minister Lasha Darsalia traveled to Washington, where he met with Brendan Hanrahan, head of the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs at the US State Department. However, the matter did not go beyond assurances of respect for the territorial integrity of Georgia, and there were no proposals to restart relations.

Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili also attended the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Milan. There, he also talked with the same Vance, but in this case, the conversation, apparently, passed without any specifics. "He said that yes, they have the information and there will definitely be a closer renewal of relations," Kavelashvili said.

The route to Iran

Officially, the main item on Vance's agenda in Transcaucasia will be further work on the "Trump route" (TRIPP). We are talking about a communication corridor that should run through the territory of Armenia and connect the main part of Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Region and Turkey. As part of the project, it is planned to lay a highway, a railway track, as well as cables and pipelines.

The first agreements on the creation of TRIPP were reached by the leaders of the three countries Nikol Pashinyan, Ilham Aliyev and Donald Trump in August last year. In January of this year, the Armenian Foreign Ministry published a corresponding framework agreement. According to the agreements reached, the Americans will hold 74% of the shares of the TRIPP Development management company for 49 years, promising large-scale investments in exchange.

Many technical aspects remain undeveloped. Vance will probably try to clarify them during the trip. In addition, he is expected to discuss the issue of energy cooperation in Yerevan. In recent years, Armenia has been thinking about building a new nuclear power plant or building an additional power unit at the existing Metsamor NPP. The United States would like to participate in this, although there are many competitors, recently the Russian Rosatom submitted its proposals to the Armenian side.

In turn, Vance will work on military and military-technical cooperation in Azerbaijan. It is expected that contracts will be signed for the supply of various equipment and ammunition, including bulletproof vests and boats. At the same time, lobbyists are stepping up efforts to finally repeal the 907th Amendment to the Freedom Support Act, adopted by Congress in 1992, which prevents unhindered defense cooperation between the United States and Azerbaijan.

At the same time, many in Yerevan hope that Trump's ally in Azerbaijan will put in a word for the remaining Christian churches in Karabakh and the former leaders of the unrecognized republic, who were recently convicted in Baku. Thus, the head of the Artsakh Diocese, Vrtanes Abrahamyan, wrote a letter to the American guest, in which he asked him to use his influence to resolve humanitarian issues.

Finally, during his trip, Vance may raise the issue of assistance from Azerbaijan and Armenia during the alleged US operation against Iran. Both states border the Islamic Republic, so Washington may be interested in using their territory. It is characteristic that the American politician is accompanied by at least 20 military transport planes on this trip, that is, this delegation can theoretically bring some equipment.

Apparently, this threat is being taken seriously in Tehran. At the end of January, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahid Jalalzadeh visited Baku, who noted that if the United States attacked his country, Tehran would withdraw hostilities beyond its borders.

What the experts say

Caucasus expert Artur Ataev believes that the current visit will have no global consequences.

— The Americans are fighting for Transcaucasia, but for a long time they have not participated in the life of the region in any way, so now their positions are not very stable. In addition, they used to rely on Georgia, but now they pay much more attention to the Armenian-Azerbaijani isthmus," he notes.

According to the expert, Vance will try to solve two main tasks.

— I think there will be a lot of common words about friendship and partnership. If we talk about practical goals, he will try to give an additional impetus to the project of the "Trump route". In addition, he will study the local political landscape for attitudes towards Iran. If the Americans are really planning an operation against Tehran, then it is important for them to control the Azerbaijani skies," he concludes.

Andrei Areshev, a political scientist and expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation, says that during the current negotiations, the topics that the parties began discussing in August last year will be developed. First of all, we are talking about the construction of the so-called Trump Road.

— There are a number of other topics. In cooperation with Armenia, the issue of high technologies, the deployment of a large data center in the Transcaucasian republic, the supply of chips and other products are being discussed. In relations with Azerbaijan, Americans are concerned about energy, they seek to take control of energy supply routes around the world," he emphasizes.