The expert spoke about the upcoming shake-up of the Russian coffee market
Starting from June 1, 2026, the Russian coffee market will undergo the most extensive transformation in the last decade due to mandatory labeling in the Honest Sign system. Anatoly Tikhonov, director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA), told Izvestia about this.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the operator of the CRPT, more than 800 manufacturers and importers have already joined the system, controlling over 80% of the legal market. In 2025, its volume in Russia amounted to about 190 thousand tons.
However, 15-20% of the volume — "gray" imports and counterfeit goods — risk disappearing into the shadows, the expert believes.
"A significant part of this product, possibly tens of thousands of tons, will rush to Telegram channels, small online platforms and courtyard coffee shops, where checking codes is the last thing the consumer thinks about," Tikhonov said.
According to the expert, marketplaces, fearing fines of up to 2 million rubles. for legal entities, they will become a filter, pushing illegal immigrants into informal channels. The main vulnerability is the stage of repackaging and production of instant coffee in Russia, where substitution of raw materials (barley, chicory, dyes) can lead up to 25-30% of counterfeit into unaccounted channels, equivalent to several thousand tons per year.
Consumers will feel a double price hit, he believes. The direct cost of labeling is insignificant, but the main factor is the global growth of Arabica beans: in February 2026, prices exceeded $4.2 per pound (+25% compared to last year) due to shortages in South America. The disappearance of cheap "gray" brands will raise the lower segment by 5-10%, the expert noted.
"The market will split: in large chains, connoisseurs of high-quality grain coffee will receive a guarantee of authenticity due to fines of up to 300 thousand rubles per pack. But budget-priced instant coffee will rise in price by 5-7%," Tikhonov summed up.
As it became known earlier, coffee producers are preparing for mandatory labeling starting from June 1. Hundreds of Russian producers and importers have joined the process of adapting mandatory coffee labeling. They are entering the final stage of preparation for the mandatory digital marking "Honest Mark", which starts on June 1, 2026.
Read more in the Izvestia article:
Shadow cup: Coffee labeling will trigger a surge in the "grey" market
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