Analysts have predicted a difficult scenario for the family mortgage in 2026

According to the results of the second half of 2025, there was a significant increase in demand for family mortgages — an increase of a record 130% (Sberbank's indicator), but this will be followed by a drop. This was reported to Izvestia on February 8 by analysts of the aggregator of new buildings RedCat.

Analysts identify several reasons for such rapid growth: the expectation of changes in the terms of preferential mortgages, developer promotions with discounts of up to 30%, low interest rates of less than 6% without increasing the cost of housing. Also, rising rental prices stimulate the purchase of real estate. For a buyer of an apartment for 15 million rubles, the monthly payment will be about 72 thousand rubles, which is comparable or even lower than renting a similar two-room apartment in the capital.

"Since February 1, banks have been tightening the requirements for participants in family mortgage programs, according to them, spouses must be co-borrowers, permanent registration of parents and children is required, and the child must have SNILS. This rule can become a serious obstacle for a part of the population with a negative credit history or who used the program earlier on their own," explained Elena Kudryavtseva, head of the mortgage department at the RedCat aggregator of new buildings.

According to the rules of most banks, a child must be registered at the place of residence of one of the parents, and this parent becomes the main borrower. This practice makes transactions more difficult, especially if the child does not have a permanent residence permit. According to statistics published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in the first quarter of 2025, almost a third of children under the age of three were not enrolled. Many families who have already applied for a mortgage face problems with the bank when agreeing on equity participation agreements.

Another important point is the exclusion of foreign citizens and participants in military mortgages from the list of co-borrowers.

Despite a common misconception, military personnel who have NIS (Accumulative Mortgage System) certificates may be exempt from the obligation to act as co-borrowers. Thus, each case is considered individually by the bank, which avoids unjustified refusals.

At the same time, changes in the rules for granting preferential mortgages and differentiated rates depending on the number of children will help maintain stability and increase demand, but decisions on these changes have not yet been made.

RedCat experts predict a difficult scenario for 2026, associated with new rules that could potentially reduce the attractiveness of buying for a significant proportion of the population. To restore positive dynamics, it will require a significant reduction in loan rates to an acceptable level of 12-15% per annum, which will expand the range of market participants and ensure a stable influx of customers. The Central Bank's decision in the coming months will determine the prospects for further development of housing lending and the construction industry as a whole. The industry continues to wait for new regulatory steps that can have an impact on the availability of housing loans and the development of the real estate sector.

Bad concrete: developers are abandoning apartments with finishing out of economy

But the demand for such facilities is growing.

On February 5, Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties, assessed the prospects for price correction in the secondary housing market. According to him, cities where stagnation or negative dynamics were observed in 2025 are at risk. The expert notes that these territories are particularly sensitive to the availability of mortgages: as loans become cheaper, buyers will return, but sellers will have to actively reduce prices in order to compete with new buildings.

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