The problems of the Ozempika manufacturer will hit the Danish economy. What you need to know

Novo Nordisk's shares fell by 17% on February 6, while its main competitor's position in the market increased by 8%. The Danish pharmaceutical company is the most expensive European asset and the main driver of the Danish economy, but in the second quarter of 2026, patent rights for its most popular pharmaceutical products, Ozempic and Wegovy, expire. How the pharmaceutical manufacturer turned out to be the main asset of Denmark, and how this threatens to turn out for the country — in the Izvestia article.

The economic effect of "Ozempika"

• The semaglutide-based injectable drug Ozempik, which Novo Nordisk launched in 2018, has revolutionized medicine. The drug, designed to combat type II diabetes, increases insulin production and increases the feeling of fullness, so that patients eat less and lose weight. This "Ozempika" effect turned out to be the most in demand, and the audience of its consumers grew dramatically.

• Sales of Ozempic and the later drug Wegovy in a more gentle dosage and in tablet form brought the company billions of dollars and opened a new niche in the pharmaceutical industry: According to Goldman Sachs estimates, by 2030, the market for weight loss products will reach $100 billion per year. In 2024, Novo Nordisk became the most expensive company in Europe — its market value exceeded $570 billion, which exceeded the size of the entire Danish economy. Taxes and investments of the pharmaceutical company ensured the growth of the country's economy, which was 4 times faster than the European average. Thanks to this, the country was able to afford record defense spending, measures to achieve carbon neutrality, and support for Ukraine.

Not for fat: sales of Ozempika analogues have tripled

What is the reason for the increased interest in these drugs and how much Russians have spent on them?

• The success of the company has had an effect not only on the economy of the country as a whole, but also on certain categories of citizens. The number of jobs and incomes increased, Danish pension funds received record profits from pharmaceutical company shares, and revenues from drug exports led to the maintenance of a low key interest rate and cheaper mortgages. Denmark's GDP grew by 2.3% in the third quarter of 2025 due to the pharmaceutical sector. But Denmark's dependence on Nova Nordisk is also associated with the so-called Nokia risk, similar to the Finnish phone manufacturer, whose collapse in the 2010s brought down the country's entire economy.

Novo Nordisk's problems

• In 2025, Novo Nordisk's revenue reached about $49 billion, with annual growth of 10% excluding currency fluctuations. For the pharmaceutical company, it turned out to be the lowest since 2020. The Danish pharmaceutical giant's problems began to be reported in the press in August 2025, when Mike Dustdar, who was previously responsible for international operations, replaced the former CEO of Novo Nordisk, Lars Jorgensen. A month later, the company announced an 11% reduction in employees and a reduction in share payments. According to Novo Nordisk's official statement, the reason was operational difficulties due to the rapid scaling of the business. The market reacted instantly — the company's shares fell by 15%.

• The first blow for the company was the US duties on imported pharmaceutical products. As a result, Novo Nordisk had to reach an agreement and limit the cost of a course of Wegovy tablets to no more than $149 per month. This agreement exempted the Danish company from export tariffs for 3 years. But in the United States, the pharmaceutical giant also faced the problem of counterfeiting semaglutide-based weight loss products. In particular, the American telemedicine company Hims & Hers sells its combined drug three times cheaper than the original — at a price of $49 per month. Such drugs are not approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, but American manufacturers use the opportunity to sell them under the guise of custom-made medicines. According to the calculations of the Danish company, these factors will lead to a decrease in annual revenue by 13%.

Stand or fall: 1 billion was wasted on the creation of Russian Viagra from the treasury

Why haven't they been able to develop a cure for almost 10 years and what does saber-toothed deer have to do with it?

• Additional pressure is exerted by competition from other pharmaceutical companies. In 2023-2024, the American pharmaceutical corporation Eli Lilly and Company released Mountjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) drugs to the US and European markets. Studies have shown that the active ingredient of American medicines, tirzepatide, has a more noticeable effect in the fight against obesity. In addition, the strategy of the Danish company, which, during a period of high demand, relied on American consumers and limited exports to other countries, led to Eli Lilly capturing Asian markets: Mountjaro was included in the Chinese state insurance system, and in 2025, sales of Danish Ozempik in China fell for the first time.

• The price of Danish drugs is expected to continue to fall, as the patent for semaglutide in India, China and Canada expires in the second half of 2026, which will allow countries to produce generics. In addition, new competitors are entering the market, in particular, Pfizer announced plans to release its own weight loss drug.

Risks for the Danish economy

• Due to Novo Nordisk's dominant role in the Danish stock market, the country has no way to balance the risks associated with the fact that the state's wealth is tied to virtually one asset. Any attempt to reduce its role will lead to a decrease in market liquidity and will hit household investment portfolios and pension fund incomes.

• The pharmaceutical giant's revenues led to the strengthening of the Danish krone. This raised the exchange rate and worsened the situation for other Danish export industries. And global competition in the pharmaceutical market makes the country's economy dependent on the effectiveness of scientific research and expansion of production, which the state cannot control, because the company is private.

• The problems of the pharmaceutical company may force the government to reduce support for Ukraine and direct money to solve internal problems. Since 2022, Denmark has been the main European donor to Kiev: the amount of funding for military assistance and the civilian sector allocated by the kingdom has reached €10.5 billion, not counting Denmark's contribution to support Ukraine within the framework of common EU decisions. In particular, the Ukrainian manufacturer of Fire Point attack drones is building its factory in Skridstrup, Denmark, despite Danish concerns about the deployment of a military plant on its territory.