Tit in the hand: why Russians prefer to invest in bonds

The volume of investments of individuals in securities on the Moscow Exchange stock market in January of this year increased to 139 billion rubles, having almost doubled year-on-year. 93.5 billion rubles of this amount were invested in bonds. Experts consider the achievement of such a serious volume to be a reflection of several factors at once, including a reduction in the key rate, inflation and geopolitical risks. What else ensures the demand for bonds is in the Izvestia article.

According to the combination of factors

The volume of investments of individuals in securities on the stock market of the Moscow Stock Exchange in January 2026 almost doubled year-on-year, amounting to 139 billion rubles. Of these, 93.5 billion rubles accounted for bonds, 0.7 billion rubles for shares, and 44.8 billion rubles for fund units. This is reported by the press service of the Moscow Exchange.

At the same time, the share of individuals in the total volume of bond trading was 16%. The shares accounted for 67.8%. The share of individuals in the futures market was 57%.

The sharp increase in individuals' investments in securities on the Moscow Stock Exchange in January 2026 was a reflection of several macro- and behavioral factors at once, said Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC and lecturer at the Higher School of Business at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The key driver was a combination of high interest rates and expectations of their subsequent reduction, the expert believes.

— When the market and people start to believe that the rate will decrease or at least not increase further, the logic appears: "I'll take the yield now, while they give it." This is a particularly strong motive in fixed—coupon bonds and high-quality corporate issues," says Yulia Kuznetsova, investment adviser at the Central Bank Registry and founder of the online investment university Financology.

Dmitry Fetisov, an independent financial adviser, co-founder of the Financial Solutions Agency and Family Office Family Capital, calls the expectation of a further reduction in the key rate the main macroeconomic factor in the growth of investments in bonds.

"Investors tend to lock in current returns before monetary policy easing leads to lower returns on this type of asset," he explains.

Another factor is inflation. In January, it showed an increase of 1.72%, which spurs the population to look for tools with higher capital protection, says Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform.

"Against the background of slowing but still elevated inflation, bonds began to be perceived as a tool with more predictable real returns, especially compared to stocks in the context of continuing geopolitical uncertainty and high volatility of corporate results," Kabakov emphasizes.

The factor of geopolitics, in turn, creates a demand for more predictable tools, Kuznetsova agrees. In the stock market, for example, geopolitics usually increases volatility.

— Bonds are perceived as a more "calm mode" where there is no need to guess the news, — explains the expert.

Seasonal factors also played a role, Kabakov believes. According to him, January traditionally concentrates the inflow of free liquidity.

— After the December bonuses, bonuses and the closing of the year, part of the funds is redistributed from short—term savings into investment instruments, - says the interlocutor of Izvestia.

Earlier, the Central Bank noted an increase in household funds in December against the background of annual bonuses and advances in social benefits, Kuznetsova recalls. And part of this money is traditionally redistributed in January.

— Someone reports on deposits, and someone finally "matures" to exchange—traded instruments, - the investment adviser points out.

It is also important to take into account that at the beginning of the year people are more likely to reassemble investment portfolios — they close old ideas, form a "plan for the year", and switch to more understandable strategies, the financier notes.

Window of opportunity

The key rate of 16% has created an attractive window of opportunity for investors, Denis Astafyev believes. According to him, bonds now offer 15-19%, depending on the issuer and the term, while the average maximum deposit rate in the top 10 banks is 14.88%.

"Yields on government and corporate bonds remain at double-digit levels, which makes them comparable to deposits, but at the same time gives investors a chance to lock in income for several years ahead and make extra money on rising paper prices with a reversal of monetary policy," explains Yaroslav Kabakov.

According to Astafyev, investors understand that deposits are good for short-term liquidity. Bonds, on the other hand, allow you to record attractive returns.

There is no direct data on the scale of the transfer of funds from bank deposits to bonds, but indirect signs indicate that this process was significant, Kabakov is convinced.

"A significant part of the January inflow was formed due to the redistribution of savings previously placed in deposits, especially given that the difference in yields between deposits and bonds has narrowed, and the liquidity of exchange—traded instruments has increased," he notes.

Speaking about the transfer of funds from deposits to bonds, however, it is important not to overestimate the scale of this process, warns Yulia Kuznetsova. As of January 1, 2026, the volume of public funds in banks reached a record 67 trillion rubles, the interlocutor of Izvestia reminds.

— And a significant part of them are term deposits. That is, the deposit base is huge and does not look like it has been "dismantled" by bonds at the moment. Translated into human language: 93.5 billion rubles in bonds in January is noticeable for the market, but this is a drop compared to the total volume of deposits. Therefore, the correct wording is that there is a gradual "overflow of margin money," rather than a mass exodus from deposits, the expert emphasizes.

Migration from deposits to bonds is proceeding smoothly, as many still prefer Deposit Insurance Agency guarantees, even if the yield turns out to be lower, Astafyev clarifies.

A short-range game

Brokers and platforms have played a huge role in the influx of retail money into bonds, Yulia Kuznetsova believes. By the end of January, more than 40.4 million private investors had brokerage accounts on the Moscow Stock Exchange, she notes.

— Brokers actively "packaged" the bonds into understandable scenarios: "coupon instead of deposit interest", "bond ladder", "money market as parking", "floaters as protection from the rate". All this really lowers the entry threshold," says the investment advisor.

However, the environment itself is also pushing for investing in bonds, Denis Astafyev is sure.

— When the gap between deposits and bonds is 1-4 percentage points, and the prospect of lower interest rates is obvious, people themselves begin to be interested in alternatives. Brokers have only facilitated access to the market, the expert believes.

At the same time, the infrastructure itself has become more convenient, says Kuznetsova. The high proportion of individuals in the morning and evening sessions, in her opinion, speaks to the investor's habit of "trading as convenient" rather than "as allowed".

The main idea for private investors today is not to make a long duration (the repayment period for invested funds, taking into account coupon payments, expressed in years), while the rate remains "high and capricious," the Izvestia interlocutor points out. In this regard, retail is most often dominated by three baskets:

— Short term (up to 1 year /1-2 years): in order not to depend on the key rate and "shift over" if conditions change.

— Average term (2-4 years): for those who believe in lowering rates and want to lock in returns for a longer period, but without taking an extremely long risk.

— Floating coupon (floaters) and the money market: this is a compromise due to the fact that profitability is pulled up to the rates, and the price risk is lower.

Securities with short and medium maturity make it possible to reduce interest rate risk and maintain flexibility in the event of a change in the key rate, confirms Yaroslav Kabakov.

Securities with a duration of 1-1.5 years and ratings of A-AA- are of the greatest interest today, Astafyev agrees, calling this approach the "golden mean", since such bonds provide sufficient returns with limited risks.

Medium-term and long-term fixed coupon bonds, which are traditionally preferred by private investors, in turn, have higher yields compared to short-term issues, Dmitry Fetisov clarifies. At the same time, they are sensitive to lower rates.

— Long-term OFZs with a term of 5-10 years can bring up to 25% of the total return per year due to price increases with lower rates, but they require a high tolerance to volatility, which most private investors do not have. Short floaters and money market funds are taken by those who are not ready to take risks at all. The average term is a compromise between the desire to earn more deposit and the unwillingness to "hang out" in a long paper amid uncertainty, Astafyev concludes.

The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to the Moscow Stock Exchange. No response has been received at the time of publication.