Predictability instead of records: why are the success criteria of banks changing

A few years ago, the main marker of success for the bank was considered to be record growth in assets, loans, funds raised, and market share growth. The period of rapid growth, however, has revealed that not every growth is equally beneficial. Some banks, in pursuit of growth, showed a sharp decrease in business margins, while others gained credit risks that could call into question the financial stability of the bank. However, there are still players on the market who can survive the "stormy conditions". The details are in the Izvestia article.

Difficulties and problems

The high key rate, tighter regulation and the slowdown of certain segments of the economy make the financial sector more complex and demanding on the quality of management.

The ability not just to grow, but to grow in a balanced manner, while maintaining the necessary capital adequacy and liquidity is much more important than any records and market share growth. Much more important is the bank's ability to earn steadily, maintain capital adequacy at the expense of its own profitability, while preferably paying dividends and effectively managing risks.

The market is now entering a phase where the sustainability of the business model is valued more highly than one-time spikes in financial performance. Banks that demonstrate a clear strategy, a conservative approach to risks and income structure are perceived as more reliable development partners who can help both in good times and in times of general difficulties.

It is no secret that the high profitability of a bank often causes even complaints, it is perceived as something harmful, but as soon as the situation in the economy begins to cause concern, banks that were previously proud of rapid growth are forced to discuss recapitalization and look for external sources of support. Moreover, they are forced to do this just at the most inappropriate moment, when neither the state nor private shareholders have money.

Do I need additional capitalization?

In recent months, several large development institutions and banks have discussed the need for additional capitalization as an additional source of government capital support.

"In conditions of economic instability, a clear strategy for moderate and predictable growth is much more important: it is important to be able to manage uncertainty, maintain predictable results and ensure the stability of the system. This allows you not to lose control of the result. To build a predictable and stable business, it is important for a bank to take into account consistency, manageability, discipline, as well as work with reputation and trust. These are the key parameters that determine the sustainability of a business in an unstable environment, not just record profits," said Sofia Kannunikova, a financial law lawyer.

By the end of 2025, another striking trend had emerged. During this period, many banks faced capital adequacy constraints and were forced to be very selective in their lending. In particular, a number of major banks have chosen a strategy to reduce retail lending in favor of lending to companies, which puts less pressure on capital, or even stopped lending altogether.

For borrowers, such behavior by their banks, of course, poses significant risks, since the company may lose financing due to the problems of its bank, which is playing into growth, and not because of its own financial problems.

Positive facts

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Sberbank was able to compensate for the shortfall in lending to banks facing capital constraints. This was most pronounced in the mortgage market, where by the end of the year, Sber increased its share in loans to 68% (compared to 51% in 2024). At the same time, in December 2025, Sber's share in mortgage loans reached about 76%, while many large banks, on the contrary, the acceptance of new applications has been suspended.

There were similar processes in other lending segments. In particular, in the most competitive corporate lending market in 2025, Sber increased its share by 0.5 percentage points to 32.8%.

Currently, 7 out of 12 systemically important credit institutions continue to comply with capital adequacy standards, but some of them are due to the Bank of Russia's easing measures, and their lending potential will be severely limited by the need to withdraw from these easing measures in the next 2 years. Not all major Russian banks can continue to provide credit support to the economy today.

Against this background, the position of Sberbank is particularly noticeable, which relies on capital growth through earned profits, rather than through government injections.

"Organic capital growth increases the bank's stability primarily because it is formed due to its own profitability and the effectiveness of the business model, rather than through one-time external sources of support. Such capital is initially of higher quality, since it does not dilute shareholder control, does not create additional obligations and does not lead to an increase in the risks assumed. In addition, organic capital growth ensures greater manageability of development: the bank can make strategic and product decisions based on a long-term vision and real opportunities, rather than under pressure from external investors or regulatory constraints. This approach allows the bank to adapt faster to changes, maintain customer trust, and stably finance the economy without revising its strategy," said Magomed Temurziev, an expert on corporate governance and business interests protection, PhD in Law.

Maintaining sustainability

Such examples show that profitability and the ability to grow capital organically without external investments are important not only for the sustainability of the banks' business model, but also for the country as a whole.

When a country's largest bank demonstrates resilience on its own, it simultaneously reduces systemic risks to the economy as a whole, becoming a pillar not only for the state, but also for millions of customers and thousands of companies. Banks with a strong capital position continue to work with the economy. Banks with weak capital are focused on survival.

"Sberbank is included in the list of 11 systemically important banks. In addition, today it plays a key role in the financial system of the Russian Federation. The Bank holds dominant positions in key segments: lending to the public, financing businesses, servicing corporate clients and managing citizens' savings. For millions of Russians, Sberbank is the main and often the only bank: salaries, pensions, savings, funds of enterprises and organizations are stored here. That is why it is so important to maintain its stability and stability," says economist Tatiana Minibayeva.
An important element of this sustainability is dividends. Only a bank with strong capital and predictable profits can simultaneously lend to the economy and consistently share profits with shareholders. For investors, this is another practical indicator of the maturity of a business model. So, in August last year, Sberbank paid a record-breaking 786.9 billion rubles in its history. Half of this amount went to the state treasury, the other half to private investors.

In the new paradigm, profit is perceived not as a goal, but as a tool. It becomes the base for capital, and capital becomes the base for the bank's ability to lend to the economy and support customer development. Therefore, more and more analysts agree that the upcoming IFRS reporting season should be viewed primarily in terms of sustainability, maturity and predictability of business models, rather than as a competition in absolute numbers.