Scientists have warned of "black swans" in the Sun in the coming days

The active region of the Sun from February 3 to the middle of February 6 is in the zone of direct impact on the Earth, and therefore unpredictable "black swans" are possible. This was reported at the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the IKI RAS.

"From today until the middle of Friday, February 6, the active center will be in the zone of direct impacts on the Earth in the range of angles approximately ± 20 degrees from the direction of the planet. In the case of large mass emissions and their normal distribution (vertically to the surface of the Sun), the interaction of plasma clouds formed during this period with the Earth's magnetosphere will be almost frontal," the report says.

Scientists note that frontal impacts of large flares rarely reach the Earth; only about 10% of major solar events occur opposite the planet. Last year, there were only two such cases — on July 1 and November 12. This year, a similar event has already happened — on January 20-21, a magnetic storm occurred with the largest radiation release. The laboratory emphasizes that it is impossible to predict such cases. The message provides a graph that shows that flares on the surface of the sun are unpredictable phenomena.

A "black swan" is a rare and difficult-to-predict event that is difficult to predict. The theory was first voiced by the American mathematician and economist Nassim Taleb in 2004 in his book "Fooled by Chance", and in 2007 he introduced the term itself in the book "Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability."

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Earlier on February 2, a maximum class X flare occurred on the Sun. Scientists clarified that the outbreak peaked at 11:14 Moscow time and received a score of X1.65. The IKI RAS also noted that signs of a large mass release were observed in the outbreak. The active center was located at an angle of about 25 degrees from the direction of the Earth. The laboratory clarified that the release could affect our planet. Earlier, the IKI RAS also announced the occurrence of magnetic storms.

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