The level has been determined: OPEC+ decided not to increase production in March

OPEC+ decided not to increase oil production in March, which was an expected step for experts, as the geopolitical situation in the world has a huge impact on the market. According to analysts, oil prices in 2026 will be in the range of $ 56-62 per barrel. And the alliance will have almost no influence on them. According to experts, the cartel's task today is to adapt flexibly to changing external conditions as much as possible, without sending additional negative signals to the market that could only worsen the situation.

What have OPEC+ members agreed on?

At a meeting on February 1, OPEC+ countries agreed to keep March production unchanged, that is, at the December level. Thus, quotas in March will be determined at the level of those that were in effect in December, as previously planned.

Russia's quota for oil production in March 2026 will amount to 9.574 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia — 10.103 million, Iraq — 4.273 million, the United Arab Emirates — 3.411 million, Kuwait — 2.580 million, Kazakhstan — 1.569 million, Algeria — 971 thousand, Oman — 811 thousand barrels per day excluding overproduction compensation, which similar to the level of December 2025 and January 2026.

At the same time, compensation schedules are still in effect for a number of countries. The most significant compensation, that is, an additional reduction in production to the quota level, should be carried out by Kazakhstan, whose production decreased in December and January due to external factors - export restrictions through CPC, as well as an accident at the Tengiz field energy facility.

"Going forward, the countries will continue to closely monitor and evaluate market conditions, and in their ongoing efforts to maintain market stability, they have reaffirmed the importance of taking a precautionary approach and maintaining full flexibility to continue suspending or canceling additional voluntary production adjustments, including previously made voluntary adjustments for the announced 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023," — it is noted in the message of the cartel.

The eight countries also reaffirmed their "collective commitment to achieving full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, including additional voluntary production adjustments, which will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)." The next meeting will be held on March 1, 2026, the message says.

How the events in Iran affected the market

Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have shown positive dynamics mainly based on geopolitical news. According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of VMT Consult, the cost of raw materials increased by 10%. In December 2025, they were at the level of $61 per barrel, by the end of December they reached $72 for the same volume.

"Prices were rising against the background of the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and, first of all, in Iran," she said..

Amid the protests in Iran, American President Donald Trump said that the United States could launch targeted strikes against Iran's leadership and security forces in order to inspire protesters to seize government buildings. Tehran, in turn, decided to conduct training exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for supplying about 35% of all LNG and 20% of oil to the global energy market, Ekaterina Kosareva recalled.

But the events in Venezuela have become a deterrent, the expert continued. In January 2026, on the eve of the first OPEC+ ministerial meeting, the United States conducted a major military operation in Venezuela. This action led to the capture and deportation to the United States of the current President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.

According to the Oil & Gas Journal, at the beginning of 2024, the reserves of this country amounted to more than 300 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia is next in terms of volume with 267 billion barrels, while the United States ranks penultimate in the top ten oil countries with 74 billion barrels. Russia is ahead of the United States by one line with 80 billion barrels. It is worth noting that back in December 2025, American President Donald Trump said that "America has enough oil reserves for two thousand years."

The authorized President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, said that the republic should move from the status of a country with the world's largest oil reserves to the world's largest producer. For this purpose, $1.4 billion in investments will be attracted in 2026.

In December 2025, according to Rodriguez, the republic reached a daily production level of 1.2 million barrels. And the head of the Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA), Hector Obregón, said that Venezuela intends to increase oil production by at least 18% in 2026 compared to 2025.

Meanwhile, demand for oil in China, the second largest consumer of this raw material in the world, began to decline. According to the British non—profit organization Energy Institute, in 2025 China was the second largest consumer - 16.4 million barrels per day, recording a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous year.

What awaits the oil market next

Maintaining a balance of supply and demand for a stable market is becoming the main task of OPEC and OPEC+, Ekaterina Kosareva believes. At the same time, the analyst does not expect a significant increase in production in Venezuela in the next year or two, and believes that the oil cartel's policy will be restrained.

Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector, agrees with this. She also believes that in 2026, the global oil supply will not grow at the expense of Venezuela.

"U.S. officials have already indicated that the country will not provide security guarantees to companies operating in Venezuela, even though the Trump administration is urging the industry to resume cooperation with the country's oil sector," she said.

Thus, in her opinion, oil companies will have to independently manage physical and political risks, which will lead to a decrease in investment interest in the process of returning Venezuelan oil to world markets.

— Under the current US administration, markets will be in a fever after announcements of possible aggressive actions against other countries that could affect global energy supplies. Positive data on economic growth in China, combined with an increase in the IEA and OPEC forecast of global oil demand for 2026, may also support the price trend," Tamara Safonova noted.

In addition, according to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government, little depends on OPEC+ in the oil market today.

— Prices for "black gold" are still determined, on the one hand, by the excess of supply over demand, and on the other hand, by the persistence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. And a high degree of uncertainty remains on both of these points," the expert noted.

He recalled that the International Energy Agency estimates that supply will exceed demand by 4.25 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, with an annual average of 3.69 million barrels per day. At the same time, OPEC estimates are much lower — only 0.6 million barrels per day, but nevertheless, the presence of a surplus is obvious even in these most optimistic forecasts.

Against this background, OPEC+, Valery Andrianov noted, there is no reason to "rock the boat" even more and continue to increase its own production, Valery Andrianov emphasized.

In his opinion, there is no point in returning to reducing quotas in the same way — this will not lead to an increase in world prices, but will only continue the process of reducing OPEC+'s share in the global market.

— The only factor supporting oil prices remains tension in the Middle East. Here, the scenarios can be very different — from "letting off steam" by diplomatic means to a full-scale war with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the latter case, oil prices may soar to $100 and above. But such a scenario is still unlikely. Given the current tensions, OPEC+ countries are naturally avoiding "sudden movements," the expert said.

Thus, according to Valery Andrianov, oil prices in 2026 are likely to be very moderate — in the range of $ 56-62 per barrel — and OPEC + has practically no influence on them. His task is to adapt flexibly to changing external conditions as much as possible, without sending additional negative signals to the market that could only worsen the situation.