The Uprising of Troy: what will the communal disaster in Kiev lead to?
In Kiev, they are struggling with a communal disaster. According to Mayor Klitschko, more than 300 high-rise buildings remain without heating, thousands of people are sitting without electricity, and sewage systems are frozen in many rooms. The most difficult situation is in the Troyeshchyna region. Further forecasts are negative, and it will take years to restore the infrastructure. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Hundreds of houses without heating
This winter, the Russian Ministry of Defense regularly reports on attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities as a response to enemy strikes on Russian territory. The Ministry emphasizes that the fire is conducted exclusively on the infrastructure used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The situation in Kiev is the most difficult in the whole of Ukraine. As of January 30, 378 high-rise buildings remain without heating in the city, while some houses have been freezing for several weeks. It is noted that pipes burst in such rooms, massive flooding occurs, the temperature in the apartments is zero, icicles hang in the entrances.
In such houses, the sewage system also fails. Some residents are forced to go to the toilet in tent cities that are set up in the city. Others equip a kind of village restroom in the yards. "What to do in a short time? A pit is being dug, a hole is being covered, and that's it," said Maxim Bakhmatov, head of the Desnyansky district administration. Later, he advised the townspeople to use cat fillers or "go in bags."
As of the end of January, 610 thousand consumers remain without electricity. "It feels like the lights are turned on randomly. Our house is in the dark almost twenty-four hours a day, and the windows in the neighboring area are constantly lit. No one explains how these schedules are compiled, it's all very annoying," one user writes on the DTEK energy company's social media page.
Several fatal cases were also reported. In particular, it was reported about the death of two utility workers who were trying to eliminate the consequences of one of the accidents.
Residents of Troyeshchyna go out to protest
Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital, said that 600,000 people had left Kiev in January. This is evidenced by billing data — 600 thousand fewer phones are currently sleeping in the city than last year. "Someone took the advice and went to visit friends or relatives. Plus, the students were sent on vacation or online study, many of them also left," the mayor's press service explained.
The situation is aggravated by the cold winter - subzero temperatures have been in Kiev all January, and frosts of up to minus 30 degrees are expected in early February. It is noted that a heavy burden has fallen on the shoulders of public utilities, many of them can not stand it and quit. "These are often elderly people with small salaries. They are now being kicked from all sides, demanding to work faster," says Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexei Kucherenko.
A characteristic episode occurred in the Pechersk district of Kiev, where the former head coach of the national football team of Ukraine, Alexei Mikhailichenko, beat up a local plumber. Later, the former athlete said that he attacked the utility worker, because allegedly because of his lack of professionalism, the boiler in the house froze and the water supply stopped.
Business representatives also found themselves in a difficult situation. "This year, due to power outages, the disaster is complete - a two—fold drop in attendance. There is no one to work for, and no one to work for, because people don't go to cafes, almost everyone stays at home," said Olga Nasonova, a restaurant consultant. According to her, it is very expensive to heat the premises of establishments, the cost of fuel for generators eats up revenue.
The most difficult situation in Kiev is on the left bank of the Dnieper River, where there has been no heating for more than a week. Local residents blocked the road here on January 28 in protest against the inaction of public utilities. At the same time, energy companies are calling for calm. "In the last week alone, 26 substation accidents have occurred here, and underground cables are constantly burning out. We work around the clock without rest," DTEK said in a statement.
Additional outrage among the population is caused by reports of large-scale corruption of officials involved in the protection of energy facilities. Last fall, NABU and SAP detectives identified corruption schemes, the damage was estimated at $100 million. As a result of that trial, Timur Mindich, a close associate of Vladimir Zelensky, fled the country, and Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk was dismissed. As a result, the case was on pause, and now the infrastructure facilities are left without cover.
At the same time, it should be noted that problems in the Ukrainian energy sector were accumulating long before the start of its development. At the end of 2021, only 37 out of 88 thermal power plants were operating in the country. The first deputy chairman of the Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Ivan Krulko, then explained that the rest were idle due to a shortage of coal. The parliamentarian warned about the likelihood of widespread power outages, including in hospitals.
The losses are estimated at tens of billions
A separate question is what to expect next. On January 29, Donald Trump said that after his request, Vladimir Putin allegedly agreed not to launch strikes on Ukrainian territory in the coming week. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the American side had indeed asked to refrain from attacks until February 1, but he did not specify what Moscow's response was.
However, there is still little optimism in the long term. Thus, Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Ukrainian Razumkov Center, said that it would take at least a year to overcome the energy crisis. Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, believes that blackout schedules in the country can be in effect for two to three years, even in the event of an early cessation of hostilities.
The most pessimistic forecast was given by Olga Babiy, adviser to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, who said that even children and grandchildren should be prepared for the fact that light, heat and water could disappear at any moment. According to her, Kiev has already become uninhabitable for many citizens, and it will not be possible to fix this situation quickly.
The second point is the cost of the proposed work. Maxim Timchenko, the head of DTEK, says that the restoration of the energy system will cost $ 65-70 billion. It is difficult to say how true this figure is — Kiev may overestimate losses in order to bargain for more help from Western partners.
If this figure is correct, then the situation for the Square is extremely deplorable. There are clearly no own funds in this volume, all budget revenues this year are planned at the level of $ 68 billion. The hope for Western help also looks illusory. The United States has eliminated itself from the Ukrainian problems, the European Union in December agreed to allocate a loan of € 90 billion to Kiev, but this money will go to the needs of the European and Ukrainian defense industries.
For a long time, Ukrainian officials expected to receive frozen Russian assets. President Zelensky called this money Ukrainian, demanded to find a mechanism for its transfer to Kiev. In December, however, even those hopes were dashed. Then the leadership of the European Union announced the indefinite blocking of money instead of voting on this issue every six months.
What the experts say
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, emphasizes that a full-fledged restoration of the Ukrainian energy system is possible only after the end of the armed conflict.
— I think it will not be restored on the same scale. Part of the population has left the country, part of the industry has closed, so demand has now significantly decreased, the previous volumes are simply not needed. In some cases, fairly simple solutions will help. For example, some thermal power plants may not be reconstructed, they will simply adjust flows from existing nuclear power plants. Some facilities will have to be restored without fail, for example, CHP-5 and CHP-6 in Kiev, which generate both heat and electricity," he notes.
The expert adds that there is no money of its own for large-scale work in Ukraine, so you will have to rely solely on the help of the West.
Economist Dmitry Adamidov says that it is difficult to understand the scale of the destruction now.
— I think the Ukrainians themselves don't understand this yet. Now the figures are called with one goal — to get more money from the Europeans. In general, a full-fledged restoration of energy will be possible only after the signing of peace. Then it will be necessary to conduct a full-fledged audit, assess losses, and predict needs. It is clear that Soviet volumes no longer shine in the country, but it is quite possible to return the facilities to work to some level," he believes.
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