Braking distance: the number of new lease agreements decreased by a third in 2025
Leasing, traditionally considered a barometer of business investment activity, has sent an alarming signal. In 2025, the number of new transactions in Russia amounted to only 326,000, which is almost a third less than a year earlier. The indicator is comparable to the results of the "shock" year 2022. The dynamics of reducing the number of new leasing transactions largely reflects the general state of the economy and investment expectations, experts say. Whether leasing has ceased to be an affordable tool for scaling a business is in the Izvestia article.
Noticeable reduction
The number of new leasing agreements in 2025 decreased by 30.3%, to 326 thousand units. This figure is comparable to the result of the "shock" year 2022. This is stated in a study by the Expert RA rating agency, which assessed the dynamics of the leasing market based on Fedresurs statistics.
At the same time, the number of property units transferred to clients decreased by 27.5%, to 451 thousand. This indicator is also close to the values of three years ago.
The summary of the study notes that the reduction was much smaller in 2024. In particular, the number of new contracts decreased by only 4.1% during this period. And the number of units of property transferred to clients has decreased by 0.6%.
In general, according to Alexey Yukhnin, Deputy General Director of the Interfax Group, a sharp decrease in the number of new contracts during the year does not make the situation dramatic — the figures for 2025 correspond to the average for the period from 2017 to 2024.
The largest decrease in the number of new contracts over the past year was noted in the segments of special equipment (46%) and transport (37%). At the same time, the latter retained its leadership in the number of new contracts.
The segments of equipment and other property showed a lower rate of decline in new contracts. For the whole of 2025, they decreased by 5% and 17%, respectively.
"In addition, against the background of a general decline in industry indicators, some segments are showing positive dynamics. For example, lessors from the Moscow, Sverdlovsk and Rostov regions have increased the number of contracts, and from the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District — the number of transferred property. The number of car leasing transactions with individuals has also increased, and the share of individuals among unique lessees has increased from 6% to 7% over the year," says Yukhnin.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to Fedresurs. No response has been received at the time of publication.
A marker of the crisis
The dynamics of reducing the number of new leasing transactions largely reflect the general state of the economy and business investment expectations, says investment advisor Yulia Kuznetsova. Despite all the existing advantages of leasing, its development does not take place in isolation from the economic situation in the country, says Evgeny Tsarev, co—chairman of the Council, Director of the Leasing Union, Chairman of the Council of the International Organization of Eurasian Cooperation for International Leasing.
— There is a direct dependence of leasing growth on demand and the desire of the lessee to update fixed assets. Leasing can be considered an indicator of the economy. If there is a crisis in the economy, then so is leasing," the expert explains.
Among the main reasons for the current crisis in the leasing market, Izvestia's interlocutor highlights:
— the high key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which led to a decrease in demand for leasing;
— a drop in business activity and a deterioration in the solvency of lessees;
— a large number of default agreements and the return of leased items;
— weak sales of stock equipment due to dumping on new equipment.
A prolonged period of high interest rates was the key reason for the decline in the leasing market last year, according to Zoya Sovetkina, Director of Bank Ratings at Expert RA agency.
"On the one hand, the high cost of leasing limited demand, and on the other, lessors significantly reduced the number of approved transactions amid declining customer solvency," she explains.
For some companies, the high cost of borrowed resources against the background of tight monetary policy meant a revision of investment plans and a postponement of the renovation of fixed assets, said Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult agency.
"In conditions of uncertainty, businesses prefer to postpone the renewal of fixed assets, focusing on maintaining liquidity rather than expanding or modernizing," confirms Kuznetsova.
It should also be borne in mind that an increase in the number of contract cancellations against the background of a decrease in business volumes has led to an increase in the share of distressed assets, adds Sovetkina.
— But leasing is a flexible tool. He has shown his resilience during all the crises in recent history and the ability to quickly come out of them," emphasizes Tsarev.
The decline in the number of new leasing agreements in 2025 does look sharp and is comparable in scale to the "shock" year 2022, however, by its nature, this dynamic is different, largely technical and cyclical, Kosareva is sure. The current situation in the leasing market does not mean a crisis of the model, but a cooling phase after the active recovery of previous years, she is sure.
— The industry has already gone through a period of adaptation to sanctions restrictions, has rebuilt supply chains and portfolio structure. The current decline is more likely a return to a more balanced growth than a systemic decline," the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
For the industry, this is a period of increased competition for reliable clients, revision of risk models and stricter requirements for borrowers, says Kuznetsova. This situation suggests a return to a more restrained investment cycle, where leasing once again becomes a tool for balanced rather than massive decisions, the expert is convinced.
At the same time, Ekaterina Kosareva believes that leasing itself today retains the status of one of the key instruments of investment in fixed assets, especially for small and medium-sized businesses.
Explicable reduction
The recorded decrease in the number of transferred units of property is explained by the fact that companies today are more likely to choose larger, but less frequent transactions, says Ekaterina Kosareva. They optimize the fleet of vehicles and extend the life of existing assets.
Another reason, according to Evgeny Tsarev, is related to the large number of unrealized wastewater.
"In such conditions, it is difficult for leasing companies to start new deals and lease new items," the expert is convinced.
In addition, the structural transformation of demand continues, Kosareva believes. Some of the imported equipment is being replaced by domestic analogues, the delivery of which requires more time, which also affects the statistics on the transfer of property in a specific period, she is sure.
An additional factor was the more cautious policy of leasing companies that seek to minimize the risks of delays and property returns, says Yulia Kuznetsova.
The largest drop in the number of contracts is observed in the transport segment, Zoya Sovetkina recalls. The main pressure on the new business in monetary terms was exerted by the truck segment.
"It showed comparable dynamics due to a significant decrease in customer solvency and demand due to the structural crisis in logistics that began in 2024," she notes.
The second segment to reduce the new business was railway transport, in which there was a decrease in demand for gondola cars amid a drop in cargo transportation volumes, the Izvestia interlocutor clarifies.
The largest reduction has traditionally been observed in capital-intensive segments, since they are the ones most dependent on interest rates and investment activity of large companies, explains Kosareva.
At the same time, according to the expert, the areas related to infrastructure projects, government orders and industrial support programs look more stable, where demand is largely provided by long-term priorities of economic policy.
Future prospects
Ultimately, according to Evgeny Tsarev, leasing companies will adapt to the new conditions. Further market consolidation is possible in the future, he does not rule out.
Ekaterina Kosareva is convinced that the leasing market retains significant growth potential in the future. This is due to the fact that leasing is still cheaper than direct purchase due to tax advantages, flexible payment schedules and the absence of the need for one-time large investments.
— Government policy focused on the renewal of fixed assets, import substitution and investment support creates favorable conditions for the further development of the industry. Major players are already offering a wide range of products adapted to the new realities, and are actively involved in financing projects that are priority for the economy," the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes.
The development of the leasing market will directly depend on the dynamics of interest rates and the general state of the economy, Yulia Kuznetsova believes. In her opinion, with monetary policy easing, gradual recovery growth is possible, but it is likely to be moderate and selective.
Zoya Sovetkina predicts a 20% increase in the volume of new business in the leasing market in the baseline scenario by the end of 2026. According to Kuznetsova, the main demand will be concentrated in segments with fast payback and more predictable cash flows, while large-scale investment projects will remain postponed until the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.
In general, businesses will increase the use of leasing instruments as monetary conditions soften and investment activity recovers, Kosareva predicts.
— Therefore, the current statistics reflect a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal. Leasing in Russia remains a stable, in—demand and strategically important element of economic development," she summarizes.
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