Chip project: retailers were warned about a 10-30% increase in smartphone prices%
Smartphone manufacturers have notified Russian retailers about a 10-30% increase in the price of their products. Gadgets purchased at the new prices will arrive in Russian stores in March-April, representatives of retailers and distributors of electronics told Izvestia. Market participants attribute the price increase to a shortage of memory chips, which are now being used in large volumes by AI services around the world. Production facilities are loaded with orders for components for neural network equipment, and the production of chips for conventional electronics is declining. Whether this trend will continue and how it will affect prices is in the Izvestia article.
When and how much can smartphones become more expensive
Smartphone manufacturers from China sent notifications to Russian partners about price increases for their products in February, two sources close to one of the retailers and one of the distributors told Izvestia.
— Market participants are already receiving updated price lists, which indicate increased purchase prices. The most noticeable changes are expected in the middle and upper price segments, as well as on models with increased internal memory and storage capacity," said one of the editors' interlocutors.
According to him, smartphones at new prices will appear on shelves as early as March-April 2026 — depending on the brand, line and amount of internal memory, they will be more expensive by 15-30%.
The partners are indeed planning to increase prices by 20-30%, each vendor has its own indicators, a source close to another retail chain confirmed. The main reason for the increase is the rise in price of components responsible for device memory. The largest increase in cost is expected in the low-price segment, where the share of memory in the cost of a smartphone is higher than other components, he noted.
— The process was launched back in December 2025, and all new batches of devices entering the Russian market come at increased purchase prices. This affected the entire model range of the company. We are not commenting on the percentage of increase at the moment," a representative of one of the Chinese smartphone manufacturers confirmed to Izvestia.
The price increase is primarily due to an increase in the cost of RAM and physical memory caused by a significant increase in demand from the rapidly developing market of AI solutions and AI services, the source added.
Second–tier brands were the first to raise prices by 5-8% back in late November and December, a representative of Fplus told Izvestia. At the beginning of the year, the increase in cost was evident in the entire smartphone segment in new shipments of all brands, he noted.
Izvestia sent inquiries to representatives of Chinese smartphone manufacturers, as well as to Apple and Samsung. The latter recalled that supplies to Russia are still suspended and the company has not made any decision to resume them.
According to the commercial director of "Refrigerator.<url>" by Alexey Pogudalov, the planned price change period is March—April 2026, and the expected increase in the selling price will be 10-20%. The main reason is a significant two— or more-fold increase in the price of smartphone components, primarily RAM and flash memory, he explained. Prices for memory chips on the global market have increased since the end of 2025 due to the fact that their leading manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are focused on fulfilling orders from major developers and owners of AI data centers, such as OpenAI or Microsoft, the expert added. This has created a shortage for electronics manufacturers and the retail market of components.
— According to our data, the problem with the rising cost and shortage of components for the production of consumer electronics will be relevant throughout 2026. In the first six months, the price increase can be more than 30%, and in some segments it can reach up to 50%. Conditionally, what costs 10-11 thousand rubles now will cost 15 thousand in the summer," Fplus believes.
Andrey Tarasov, Executive Director of diHouse, agrees with this opinion. He predicts that smartphones will rise in price by 15-30% by spring, depending on the manufacturer and price category, which is associated with an increase in the cost of memory chips.
— Wildberries is already seeing an increase in selling prices for smartphones from manufacturers and suppliers. This is a global trend, primarily related to a sharp rise in the price of RAM, because it is used not only in computers, but also in phones," Alexey Zaitsev, head of Electronics at Wildberries & Rus, told Izvestia. — Prices have soared so much that it may be more profitable for memory manufacturers to terminate existing contracts for its supply to smartphone manufacturers, pay a penalty and renegotiate new ones on different terms.
Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, did not rule out that the smartphone market could experience several waves of price increases in 2026: after the current price increase, the next one could follow in the summer.
What will happen to gadget prices in the future?
However, not all market participants expect a sharp rise in smartphone prices. For example, MTS and Megafon said that the operators have no plans to raise prices for gadgets yet. The industry expects an increase in the purchase price, but this is not about a one-time indexation in March, but about the possible cumulative impact of a number of factors during the year, says Lyudmila Semushina, a representative of Inventive Retail Group. For example, a possible weakening of the national currency will directly affect the final price on the shelf.
— Spot changes are possible at any time — it's up to the market to decide. In 2026, factors such as rising memory prices, the introduction of mandatory labeling, VAT changes, and the introduction of a technology fee may have an impact on the final cost of devices, she said.
According to her forecast, customers will change devices less often and, perhaps, will become more attentive to the care of their used gadgets, seeking help from trusted service centers.
There has already been an increase in interest in smartphones in retail — this is an alternative to new devices, said Sergey Nogin, Head of Telecom and IT business development at Avito.
— The growth in sales of popular Apple models is especially noticeable: in 2025, the iPhone 15 Pro was purchased 2.2 times more often than in 2024, the iPhone 14 Pro — by 26%. On the market, you can find gadgets in almost new condition for 30-40% cheaper than the market price," he told Izvestia.
The price dynamics in the electronics market in 2026 will largely depend on the situation in the global component market, primarily on the cost of memory and storage devices, M.Video noted. It is this factor that remains key today for devices in which the share of memory significantly affects the cost, the company said.
— Growth is not related to short-term spikes in consumer demand or seasonal sales, it is shaped by global processes on the part of component manufacturers. The rise in price of components affects final sales stepwise: each new batch arrives at higher purchase prices, while there are still remnants on the market purchased under old contracts, the company's press service said.
The formation of the cost of equipment today consists of several key factors — the base price of goods, logistics and the exchange rate for imported products, explained its representative. In these areas, the situation remains stable: the exchange rate does not fluctuate sharply with a gradual strengthening of the ruble, logistics and supplies are aligned, he says.
"Throughout 2026, we expect a gradual increase in smartphone prices, which may be facilitated by factors such as a change in the VAT rate, an increase in the price of components, the introduction of an Honest Mark labeling system and a technological fee," said Andrey Tarasov from diHouse. — In addition, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble, as well as the size of the key interest rate, may also have an impact on the cost of goods.
In the long term, in 2027-2029, the market is expected to stabilize, according to Alexey Pogudalov from <url>. New Chinese factories may join the production of memory. In addition, the high price level encourages manufacturers to increase the production of chips, which will eventually lead to a moderate price reduction in conditions of market saturation, he concluded.
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