Main beneficiary: what benefits will Russia get from rising gold prices
Gold prices on world stock exchanges set a new record at $5,257.20 per troy ounce (as of January 28). Thus, since the end of 2024, the precious metal has almost doubled in price. Such growth was not expected by anyone, even the most optimistic analysts. The reasons are well known — the aggravation of the geopolitical situation and the loss of confidence in fiat currencies. Meanwhile, Russia, as one of the largest players in the gold market, is already benefiting from what is happening and can get even more. We will tell you how in the Izvestia article.
Three, four, five...
Another gold record, achieved on January 28, did not surprise anyone. Along with gold, which by this point had risen above $5,257 per ounce, silver also rose, breaking through the $100 mark (at the time of publication — $115.18 per ounce), and platinum is approaching the $3,000 mark ($2,770). Gold has long since updated the all-time record adjusted for inflation, and the last time such a rise was observed in 1980 against the background of a general rise in prices in the United States and in the West as a whole.
Currently, inflation is relatively moderate, but there are other reasons. The general geopolitical instability that has been observed since the beginning of the decade has intensified since Donald Trump came to power. It is no coincidence that over the past 365 days, gold has consistently reached the levels of $ 3 thousand, $ 4 thousand and $ 5 thousand. In addition, there is a process of gradual loss of confidence in conventional currencies. The situation with the dollar is causing investors to worry about the confrontation between the White House and the Fed, which has not happened for a long time. At the same time, there are few alternatives to the dollar — the eurozone has hardly been able to boast of great success lately, and it is also much more tightly regulated by law. As for the yuan, it is still not fully convertible.
The latest surge was triggered by the Bank of Japan, which was suspected of wanting to support the yen. Currency interventions in the world's fourth largest economy automatically provoke an increase in demand for alternatives to fiat currencies. At the same time, bitcoin, which was recently considered a new, more "trending" version of gold, has "stalled" due to problems with the cryptocurrency reform in the United States. And in any case, the real asset currently looks much more promising than the virtual one.
Now it seems that nothing will stop the rise of gold. Indeed, growth is influenced by many factors, including underestimated ones.
According to Kirill Chernovol, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute's laboratory for the analysis of best international practices, demand is also influenced by new major market participants — crypto companies.
— In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tether increased its investments in gold by about 27 tons. This is close to the estimate of the third quarter at 26 tons, which is comparable to the volume of gold purchases, for example, by the central banks of Poland or Brazil. Tether uses gold to form reserves to secure its key stablecoin, USDT, with a circulation volume of $187 billion, as well as for the XAUT coin, whose value is pegged to gold and is estimated at $2.7 billion, he said.
In turn, Finam analyst Alexander Potavin notes that the gold price is rising at new historical highs, so it is difficult to say at what levels this price increase will stop.
— If precious metals quotes add 3-5-7% per day, this does not indicate a fundamental revaluation of the market, but a purely speculative nature of the price movement. In such a situation, guessing where growth will stop is a thankless task. Most of the forecasts for gold made at the end of last year have already remained at the bottom," the analyst states.
He added that the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve could correct the situation with the weakness of the dollar.
— The situation of the dollar falling may end soon, and the dollar may turn up if the Fed confirms at the end of January that it is ready to take a big pause in rate cuts. Accordingly, such a pause in monetary policy easing may turn the dollar's exchange rate back up against world currencies. The strengthening of the dollar may also trigger a downward correction in overheated gold prices," Potavin predicts.
We won on the price, we lost on the strong ruble
The dizzying rise in prices for precious metals has made some states clear beneficiaries. This also applies to Russia, which has consistently increased its gold reserves in previous years. The reserves of the Bank of Russia reached a record value at the beginning of 2026, exceeding $326 billion. In many ways, this helped to amortize the freezing of a portion of international reserves abroad after the start of its operations.
In addition, Russia is one of the world's leading gold producers. In 2024 (data for 2025 has not yet been released), 330 tons of precious metal were mined in the Russian Federation, which puts our country in second place after China. The result turned out to be predictable: Polyus Gold is currently in third place on the Russian stock market.
Given the difficult budget situation, should the government find additional benefits in raising the price of gold by increasing taxation on companies in the sector or buying up the metal at fixed prices? Experts believe that this would be unnecessary.
— It is possible to introduce an additional tax, but why? Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency, wonders. — Rather, it makes sense to simply take the already increased taxes from gold miners and give them more opportunities to invest and expand production with an eye to the future. In addition, having won on the price, they lost on the strong ruble, so it is not a fact that additional "milking" will be harmless for the industry.
Vladimir Eremkin, a senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy, notes that the additional income tax already exists in Russia.
— In 2023, the country's largest gold miner, Polyus, received a significant increase in profits due to an increase in world prices, therefore, it paid a tax on additional income to the budget. However, such a fiscal impact on the company led to a relatively low net profit, so the dividend policy and investment plans were adjusted," the expert recalled.
He added that the rise in gold prices creates a temptation for the state to extend the tax rate to more deposits in order to withdraw excess profits from companies.
— This will certainly affect the investment plans of gold miners, as financing for the development of new and modernization of existing deposits will decrease. A drop in the growth rate of physical production volumes due to a focus on the most cost-effective projects may negatively affect revenues to the federal budget in the long term. Therefore, the introduction of an industry windfall tax seems impractical, but targeted measures to introduce NDT for individual fields can be considered as an alternative," the expert concluded.
"The market can absorb a quarter of the world's production"
With the replacement of the US dollar and other fiat currencies with gold in reserves, the question is whether they can be used in case of an emergency. For example, you can quickly sell several tens or hundreds of tons or use them to pay for critical imports. According to Potavin, gold, in fact, is not subject to sanctions and remains one of the most liquid reserve assets. Global markets are able to easily "digest" volumes of tens of tons of gold in a reasonable time, unless they try to sell the metal very quickly.
Over the past three years, the world's central banks have been buying over 1,000 tons of gold per year. This is evidence that the gold market can easily absorb about a quarter of global production per year through central banks alone. However, it must be admitted that the massive purchase of gold by the Central Bank led to the price rally that we are still witnessing. The sale of about 100-200 tons of gold may be sensitive to market prices, but this is a volume that the market is theoretically able to digest in months of sales.
However, Vladimir Eremkin says that the gold available to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has limited liquidity.
— The sale of small batches in the domestic market is quite realistic, but large-scale transactions are not easy to make, since the only major sales markets are Asian. Gold can be a good collateral for obtaining a foreign currency loan, but under the conditions of sanctions, the practical implementation of this opportunity is difficult.
However, according to Anton Tabakh, the gold trade is always shrouded in mystery. Consequently, it is rather difficult for an outside observer to assess with confidence the real prospects for the sale of this asset.
— Sanctions can create problems, the transaction may take longer, but in general, it should not be a big problem for the market in its current state and the increasing role of Asian platforms and buyers in trading physical gold.
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