Get out of the storm: experts talk about the future growth of car sales

Over the past five years, the Russian new car market has experienced several significant shocks: a pandemic, a shortage of semiconductors, and anti-Russian sanctions. After serious drops, car sales inevitably recovered. In 2025, the market experienced a "perfect storm" with a significant drop in the market. At the same time, experts are already noting signs of a revival in demand and pin certain hopes on the coming year 2026. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

"The Perfect Storm"

After the crisis of 2022, the Russian market grew rapidly, but at the beginning of this year, a "perfect storm" formed due to several factors at once. Demand, which accelerated in 2024, "washed out" sales in the first few months of 2025. In addition, in the first half of the year, dealers operated at a key rate of 21%, and the attractiveness of deposits objectively reduced consumer activity.

Added to the high financial burden was the expectation by some buyers of the imminent return of some departed car companies to Russia. The so-called zhduns appeared. This uncertainty temporarily dampened consumer demand at the beginning of the year. At the same time, dealers delivered cars with a stock — the stock balance from last year amounted to about 700 thousand cars. The total supply approached 2.3 million vehicles, which significantly exceeds the market capacity.

"Consumers, realizing that it would be cheaper tomorrow, did not rush to the salons," said Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat.

A reversal to growth

Nevertheless, in the second half of 2025, there were signs of a revival of the market, primarily in terms of traffic in dealerships and conversion into deals. Already in June, sales slowed down, and in July they increased by more than a third compared to June.

The trend reversal was helped by the resumption of government support programs, as well as special offers from market players. The gradual reduction in the key rate helped to improve the mood of buyers. As the rate gradually decreased from 21% to 16.5% in four stages, dealers saw a moderate recovery in demand, especially in the mass—market segment.

The revival of the market was also influenced by external factors — the expectation of a change in the methodology for calculating scrap collection from December 1, its subsequent indexation from January 1, 2026, and an increase in VAT.

"Against this background, consumers were in a hurry to buy cars, as a result, importers' inventories were significantly cleared, and a shortage even formed for a number of models," Ilya Petrov, director of retail sales at Avilon AG, told Izvestia. October was the peak, when, according to various estimates, more than 165-170 thousand new cars were sold. An absolute record for sales of new hybrid cars was set — an increase of 54% by October 2024 (6,294 units). Car loans in Russia have set a new record in terms of disbursements — 213.5 billion rubles.

According to the results of October, the Russian market took the second place in Europe, and by the end of 10 months its volume exceeded 1 million vehicles. In November, sales declined again (more than 127 thousand cars), but Russia still ranked fourth in the European ranking. It is absolutely obvious that the results of 2025 will significantly exceed forecasts and will be above 1.3 million, the AEB noted.

According to the AEB Committee of Automobile Manufacturers, taking into account alternative supply channels, the market volume in 2025 amounted to 1,366,535 vehicles, showing a decrease of 17%.

They can afford to

Price pressure in the market was moderate, as dealers sought to sell off inventory.

— During the year, a large number of models were sold below the price list, and the average transaction price decreased across the market. This is a direct effect of the market economy: when there is an oversupply, the price moves towards the buyer. We can see that for the top 10 models in our portfolio, the average transaction price decreased by about 5% year-on-year. For individual models, the drop reached 8-10%," Nikolai Ivanov, Director of New car Sales at Rolf Group, told Izvestia.

According to Autostat, the weighted average prices for new passenger cars increased by only 5.4% at the end of the year, which was the lowest value in the last five years.

In turn, the Ministry of Industry and Trade continued to stimulate demand for domestic cars through preferential car loans and preferential leasing programs. By the end of 2025, over 190 thousand cars were sold using these tools, and the volume of discounts provided amounted to 76 billion rubles.

In addition, the proportion of households that can afford to make large purchases has increased significantly. According to the results of surveys conducted by inFOM LLC commissioned by the Bank of Russia in 2024-2025, 13% of respondents can afford to purchase everything except real estate (food, clothing, household appliances and cars) with current income. In 2023 and 2024, this figure was 11.6% and 10.7%.

In part, these changes supported the increased demand in the car market, the Bank of Russia noted.

Growth factors

The role of car loans will remain critically important for restoring demand, Ilya Petrov believes. With the planned tightening of debt requirements in 2026, the market will need significant support measures from importers.

The situation with new car sales may improve in the second half of the year, as it happened in 2025, according to auto expert Igor Morzharetto.

— In 2026-2027, Russian consumers should expect all current trends in the automotive market to remain, with minor trends in sales growth in certain periods, most likely in the spring, summer and autumn periods. To date, the existing set of actions taken by the government, the banking sector and the market seems to be quite exhaustive, it remains only to monitor the implementation of these measures and strengthen positive trends," said Mikhail Khachaturian, Associate Professor of the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University, PhD in Economics.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that they will continue to implement programs to stimulate demand for cars in the form of preferential loans and leasing in 2026.

Year of restoration

The year 2026 may be a turning point, but not in terms of a sharp increase in sales, says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto.

— Rather, it will be a year of stabilization and restoration of market predictability. After each crisis, the market recovers in stages: first, stabilization, then cautious growth. If the macroeconomic situation remains relatively stable, 2027 may be the year of a gradual increase in demand. The main lesson of the past crises is that growth begins when the buyer again understands how much the car costs today and how much it will cost him to operate tomorrow," she said.

Limiting the supply of new cars from abroad will restrain the oversupply, Irina Frank believes. Accordingly, there will be no massive discounts in the first six months — the market will remain relatively balanced.

— The tightening of credit conditions will create an incentive for manufacturers and dealers to work more actively with promotions and loyalty programs. In general, the market will gradually start to focus on the buyer: more transparent prices will appear, loyalty programs will expand and the number of available models will increase," she noted.

According to the expert, the passenger segment, as in 2025, will remain the strongest, as it responds most quickly to changes in income and the availability of financing.

At the same time, the main growth opportunities today lie in service, the secondary market, including custom car deliveries, local assembly, as well as in the development of car ownership infrastructure.

— It is the ecosystem around the client that is becoming a key factor in the sustainability of the business, — says Irina Frank.