The economist spoke about the consequences of the possible legalization of online casinos

The proposals of the Ministry of Finance on the legalization of online casinos with an expected budget effect of about 100 billion rubles per year provide for the creation of a single operator, the acceptance of bets through a centralized accounting system, a tax of at least 30% of gross income and control by the regulator. The economic result will depend on how many players switch to the licensed segment, Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club business community, told Izvestia on January 27.

"The economic consequences for the illegal segment depend on what percentage of players and turnover actually go to the licensed circuit. Part of the turnover will move to the legal segment: players who value convenient payments, clear rules, fast payments and legality will switch if there is a competitive legal product in terms of product range, user experience and marketing. The illegal segment will not disappear on its own: offshore platforms retain the audience due to more aggressive bonuses, fewer restrictions and willingness to serve high—risk players," the expert explained.

According to him, without parallel measures like blockages, payment restrictions, and the responsibility of intermediaries, the scenario of a legal layer on top plus an illegal tail on the bottom is likely.

The expert stressed that the tax rate of 30% of gross gaming income is a high fiscal burden and can reduce the ability of operators to market, bonus programs and security investments. As an example, he cited the United Kingdom, where from April 2026 the tax on online gambling will increase from 21% to 40%, which is already accompanied by a discussion about the risk of players leaving for the shadow sector. According to Rusyaev, if strict restrictions on advertising, bid limits and customer verification are added to the high tax burden, legal operators may lose out in competitiveness to offshore platforms.

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The economist paid special attention to social risks. He recalled that the online format increases the availability of gambling, allowing you to play around the clock and quickly replenish accounts, which increases the threat of addiction. Rusyaev referred to studies that recorded an increase in the number of problem gamblers among young people after the legalization of online gambling in Spain and an increase in requests for help in the United States. According to him, without strict safeguards, the expansion of the legal market can lead to an increase in the debt burden on households and increase pressure on the prevention and treatment of gambling addiction.

Among the key risks of the transition period, the expert named a possible low flow of players to the legal segment with a combination of high taxes and weak enforcement to use official payment channels, concentration of infrastructure at a single operator, threats of money laundering and fraud, as well as social damage due to increased accessibility and aggressive marketing.

"Minimization tools include payment control through ECMPS, personal restrictions and self-exclusion, Russia has already adopted a mechanism for self-prohibition of gambling with effect from September 1, 2026, responsible default gambling with deposit and loss limits, timeouts, prohibition of credit financing, independent audits of information technologies and platforms plus requirements for data storage and cybersecurity," the expert concluded.

The Kommersant newspaper, citing sources, reported on January 27 that the Russian Ministry of Finance had proposed legalizing online casinos, which, according to the agency's estimates, would allow for an annual budget replenishment of 100 billion rubles. Currently, the illegal turnover of gambling on the Internet exceeds 3 trillion rubles per year. As part of the initiative, it is proposed to introduce a tax on online casinos in the amount of at least 30% of revenue. The administration will be handled by a specially created regulator. In addition, it is planned to set an age threshold of 21 years for gambling.

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