The analyst stated that bitcoin's volatility is growing due to geopolitics

The past week (January 19-25, 2026) has become one of the busiest for the crypto market at the beginning of the year. The key drivers of volatility were the geopolitical and trade threats from US President Donald Trump, from the rhetoric on Greenland to the launch of the "Sell America" campaign and the freezing of the trade agreement with the United States by the European Parliament. Andrey Loboda, an economist and top communications manager in the field of digital currencies and industrial mining, told Izvestia on January 26.

"Bitcoin, demonstrating the behavior of a classic risky asset, sank by 7.48% to $86,670, and ethereum — by 14.22% to $2,816. Institutional demand weakened: during the week, $ 1.63 billion was withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, despite the aggressive purchase of Strategy ($2.13 billion). Against the background of the increase in the yield of treasuries to 4,294% and the historical maximum of gold ($4,990), investors massively shifted to protective assets, which increased pressure on BTC," the expert said.

The first half of Monday, January 26, opened with a new round of trade tensions: Trump threatened 100% duties against Canada in the event of its rapprochement with China. This instantly pushed gold above $5,000 (to $5,110), and bitcoin briefly tested the $8,6074 support before bouncing back to $88,424. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations have reached $613.86 million, including $183.86 million in BTC and $204.33 million in ETH.

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The market is increasingly showing a reaction to a steady pattern: Trump's loud statements cause a short-term flight from risky assets, but in the absence of immediate concrete actions, investors quickly return to the market, which leads to a price recovery. Nevertheless, accumulated fatigue from trading rhetoric can lead to a deeper correction with the slightest deterioration in the fundamental background.

During the week of January 26 – February 1, all attention is focused on the Fed meeting (January 28). The rate is expected to remain at 3.75%, but Powell's comments will be crucial: even a hint of possible easing in the future may support risky assets, including BTC.

"Employment data (ADP, initial applications), inflation (PPI) and Trump's speech on January 28 are also important. Technically, bitcoin needs to overcome $91500 to return to $93500. However, with the current bearish structure on the weekly chart and the absence of a strong macro pulse, consolidation in the range of $86,000–$90,500 is more likely before a new batch of news appears," Loboda explained.

Before the Fed meeting, the market is likely to remain in a waiting state, with increased sensitivity to any geopolitical or macroeconomic signals.

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At the beginning of this year, the Russian industrial mining market had unique conditions and prerequisites for development for its participants, the expert said. Against the background of a noticeable drawdown in the price of bitcoin, the cost of mining by large domestic mining companies barely exceeds 5-10% of the exchange price. Such market conditions do not last forever. In the baseline scenario, as early as the end of April, the price of bitcoin can confidently exceed $130,000 again.

The current price drawdown has significantly strengthened the positions of large customers for the extraction of digital resources and investors. The conditions for entering the market for them have been as comfortable as possible over the past five years: the cost of computing equipment (ASICs) has almost halved over the year due to the ruble recovering by almost 25% against the dollar, and the cost of maintenance and customer support for new clients of mining data centers is still conditionally zero.

"At the same time, large financial and industrial groups continue to enter the market as operators of mining infrastructure and new participants. With a low market, the cost of operating expenses and investments in launching new mining data centers are 30-40% lower than with a bitcoin price above $120,000," Loboda concluded.

Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, reported on December 24 that the introduction of a limit of 300 thousand rubles per year per investor when buying cryptocurrencies will not be able to fully protect businessmen from losses, but reflects the regulator's recognition of the scale and reality of the crypto market. According to him, cryptocurrency remains a highly volatile instrument.

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