Shutdown from Minnesota: why the United States is on the verge of crisis

America may face the suspension of the federal government amid a new high-profile incident involving the death of a citizen as a result of a collision with the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The case in Minneapolis has become the second in recent times, and now Democrats are considering blocking a bill to fund the government. According to experts, the political confrontation could lead to a shutdown as early as next week. The information about what exactly happened, how critical the situation in the country is and when the authorities can suspend the work of state structures is in the Izvestia article.

What happened

The United States is once again facing a partial shutdown of the federal government. The risk of a shutdown has increased dramatically amid the conflict between Democrats and Republicans over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). As CNN reports, citing the leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, the likelihood of government agencies being suspended has increased significantly.

The situation has worsened due to a new high-profile incident in Minneapolis, Minnesota. On Saturday, January 24, mass protests began there after a border patrol officer shot and killed a man during an operation against illegal migrants. According to DHS, the officer opened fire in self-defense. A migrant from Venezuela approached the law enforcement officers, armed with a pistol, and it was not possible to neutralize him in any other way. It later became known that the deceased was Alex Pretty, a 37—year-old nurse at the veterans Hospital.

This was the second case in a short time. Earlier, 37-year—old Renee Goode died during the protests - she was shot dead by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer.

Against this background, the Democrats announced their intention to block the government spending bill if it includes DHS funding. As Schumer explained, the party insists on amendments that should limit, in his words, the "excesses" of ICE. Republicans, in turn, oppose changing the document.

The House of Representatives had previously passed the last four appropriations bills, and the budget approval process was nearing completion. However, after Pretty's death, the situation changed. Democratic Senators Dick Durbin, Jackie Rosen, Catherine Cortez Musto and Tim Kaine have publicly opposed DHS funding. They were joined by independent Senator Angus King, who stated that he could not support the document in its current form.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump also admitted that the country could face another government shutdown due to the lack of an agreed budget.

Political deadlock

The political standoff over the financing of the US government has reached a new level amid budget negotiations in Congress. Democratic leaders in the Senate have openly stated that they will not support the spending bill if it does not include funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate, plays a key role in this confrontation. He announced that his colleagues were ready to block a large package of spending laws unless Republicans agreed to remove DHS funds from the general budget and agree on changes aimed at increasing the agency's responsibility for the actions of its units, such as immigration and customs enforcement.

Vladimir Vasiliev, a researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, told Izvestia that the situation was critical for one simple reason, and what was happening could set a precedent for the entire United States. We are talking about the program for the expulsion of illegal immigrants, which is supervised by DHS with the support of the immigration court. This process has become one of the key points of the political struggle.

– Now a lot depends on the Democrats, Republicans and Trump. Given the difficult situation in government funding, Trump is ready to go on a shutdown. For him, this is a chance to reduce social spending — as it already happened during the previous government shutdown from September to November. Plus, at the beginning of the year he proposed to increase the defense budget by one and a half times, and now we need to find funds. The shutdown creates an opportunity to resolve these financial issues," the expert notes.

According to Sergei Mikhailov, a leading RISI expert, the Democrats do not need to seek a split within the Republican Party. The votes of the Democrats themselves are enough to ensure another shutdown in connection with the events in Minneapolis. Democrats say they will not vote for a new package providing budget funding if it includes DHS funding, since it includes the so-called immigration police. They claim that employees of this department have already killed the second person during their anti-immigration raids, and that is why they refuse to allocate funds."

– Republicans have a minimal majority in both houses of Congress. To overcome the Democrats' resistance, they need 60 votes. Accordingly, the Republicans would have to try to achieve a split among the Democrats, which would be very difficult. This whole situation is primarily related to the upcoming midterm elections to the US Congress in November 2026," the expert clarifies.

According to estimates by former Democratic aides, if on January 23rd the probability of a shutdown was about 25%, now it reaches 90%.

Why exactly did DHS become a point of conflict

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unites a number of agencies responsible for border protection, immigration control and protection of the country from internal threats. It was established after the September 11, 2001 attacks to coordinate efforts to ensure security inside the country and includes structures such as the Immigration and Customs Police (ICE), the Border Customs Service (CBP) and the Coast Guard. The main tasks of DHS are border control, immigration enforcement, counterterrorism, and emergency response coordination.

ICE and the U.S. Border Patrol are playing a key role in the current budget conflict. ICE investigates violations of immigration and customs laws, arrests, detention of prisoners in deportation centers, and operations to expel illegal migrants. The Border Patrol is responsible for controlling the territory and preventing illegal border crossings.

— Illegal immigrants are being used in the political struggle today. For Democrats, this is a way to show "activity" under the Biden administration, for Republicans it is a tool of pressure on Trump, — Vladimir Vasiliev notes.

According to him, the situation revolves around immigration issues, and the Trump administration feels limited here. The process has not been successful yet. This is indeed a decisive battle. How the situation unfolds depends not only on the fate of individual states, but also on the fate of the administration as a whole.

Criticism of DHS and its departments has intensified amid a number of high-profile incidents involving the use of force by ICE agents and border guards. Democrats and human rights organizations point to a lack of transparency, cases of excessive use of force, and systemic problems in the work of immigration services that require reforms and stricter controls. In addition, many agents are still not equipped with body cameras, which makes it difficult to objectively assess the actions of the security forces.

The financial aspect has also been the subject of controversy. The draft budget for fiscal year 2026 allocates a significant portion of resources to CBP and ICE for border security and immigration enforcement operations. Democrats are pushing for the introduction of "safety fences" and reporting mechanisms in exchange for support for government spending bills. According to Vasiliev, if the Democrats manage to carry out their policy, as happened in May—July 2020 after the events with George Floyd, this could greatly affect the electoral prospects of Republicans and Trump.

What does the shutdown mean for the United States?

The modern understanding of the shutdown did not take shape immediately. Since the transfer of budgetary powers to Congress and the approval of the current budget rules in 1976, there have been 22 cases of delays in financing in the United States. However, until 1980, the Government continued to function even in the absence of an approved budget. The situation changed in 1980-1981, when U.S. Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti issued a series of clarifications according to which federal agencies do not have the authority to perform their functions without appropriate funding.

From that moment on, budget delays began to lead to an actual shutdown of the government. In total, the United States has experienced 15 shutdowns since the early 1980s. The first mass sending of civil servants on unpaid leave occurred in November 1981 under President Ronald Reagan. At that time, the two-day shutdown affected about 241,000 employees of federal agencies and, according to estimates, cost the budget $80-90 million in additional administrative costs. Similar measures were applied in 1984, 1986 and 1990. Since 1990, all delays in financing that lasted more than a few hours have been officially classified as shutdowns.

In practice, the shutdown primarily affects federal employees. Hundreds of thousands of workers either go on unpaid leave or continue to work without a guarantee of timely payment of wages. Employees considered "irreplaceable" usually include military personnel, law enforcement officers, flight controllers, and certain categories of national security personnel.

At the same time, access to public services is limited. During the shutdown period, national parks and museums are temporarily closed, the work of a number of administrative institutions is suspended, the processing of migration, visa and tax documents, as well as the processing of social benefits is slowing down. New federal programs and contracts are usually frozen.

The economic consequences of even a short-term shutdown can be serious. According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), previous government suspensions have led to lower economic growth, increased uncertainty for businesses, and additional costs associated with the resumption of agency operations after the crisis.

At the same time, as Sergey Mikhailov notes, in this case, they are more on the side of the Democrats, since a certain disarray is observed not among them, but among the Republicans. And in order to push through the bill, it is just necessary that a split arise among the Democrats. But before the midterm elections, on the contrary, they demonstrate unity and determination in the fight against Trump. This makes the Democrats much more likely to successfully block the budget and increases the chances of a shutdown.