The State Duma talked about the dollar exchange rate for 2026

The current depreciation of the dollar, which reached 75.79 rubles in mid-January 2026, was the result of a joint influence and will not last long. This opinion was expressed by State Duma deputy Kaplan Panes on Friday, January 23.

According to the parliamentarian, the strengthening of the ruble was influenced by the decision of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance to increase daily sales of foreign currency and gold in the domestic market by about 70%. In addition, maintaining the high key rate at 16% has made ruble-denominated instruments attractive for savings, he added. He stressed that the accumulation of rubles by enterprises before paying taxes also temporarily strengthens the national currency.

"Forecasts for the end of 2026 suggest a weakening of the ruble. The consensus forecast indicates an average annual exchange rate of around 88.5 rubles per dollar. Analysts of large investment companies expect a gradual shift in the exchange rate to the range of 85-90 rubles, and in the baseline scenario — even up to 87-100 rubles per dollar," the politician said in a conversation with Lenta.Ru .

Panes added that the main reasons for the future correction will be the expected gradual reduction of the Bank of Russia's key rate to 12-14% by the end of the year, which will make ruble assets less attractive, as well as a reduction in foreign exchange interventions under the budget rule. The pressure will be exerted by the recovery of imports and the seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency in the summer, he concluded.

Nothing has changed: even in a stressful scenario, the dollar exchange rate will not become triple-digit.

Why will the ruble gradually weaken and how can it react to the Ukrainian settlement?

Earlier, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the official dollar exchange rate below 76 rubles for the first time since May 2023. According to experts, the market is responding positively to the intensification of negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. In addition, the Russian currency is still being strengthened by high interest rates, the situation in foreign trade and the approach of the tax period, RT reports.

On January 20, Reuters reported that financial markets reacted sharply to renewed concerns about a potential trade war between the United States and the European Union (EU), which intensified amid the dispute over Greenland. Against this background, investors began to withdraw from risky assets. The dollar index, which reflects the exchange rate of the US currency against a basket of major world currencies, decreased by 0.9%. European stock markets also recorded a significant drop: the German DAX index and the Italian FTSE MIB each lost 1.3%.

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