It is important to discuss: negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine will be held in Abu Dhabi

A trilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, Ukraine and the United States will take place in Abu Dhabi on Friday, January 23. Bilateral talks are also expected between representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States, during which the provision of $1 billion to the Peace Council from frozen Russian assets will be discussed. For more information about upcoming meetings, as well as their prospects, see the Izvestia article.

Trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi

Trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine will be held in Abu Dhabi on January 23. According to Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, the Russian delegation will be headed by Igor Kostyukov, Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Later, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that Russia is represented exclusively by the military in the trilateral security group in Abu Dhabi: "These are the military, these are representatives of the Ministry of Defense. We will not name them yet. It's all military stuff."

The US negotiating group included the son-in-law of the American president, Jared Kushner, and the commissioner of the Federal Procurement Service (FAS) of the US Office of General Services, Josh Grunbaum. On the Ukrainian side, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, Head of the Office of the President Kirill Budanov (listed in Russia as a terrorist and extremist), First Deputy head of the Office of the President Sergey Kislitsa, head of the parliamentary faction "Servant of the People" David Arakhamiya and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Andrei Gnatov will attend.

Later, Vladimir Zelensky said that he had decided to expand the delegation to include Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.

"I asked [the head of the GUR Oleg] Ivashchenko to send Skibitsky along with Gnatov, so that there would be military and intelligence representatives," Zelensky told Ukrainian media.

Victoria Zhuravleva, Deputy Director of the IMEMO RAS named after E.M. Primakov, head of the Center for North American Studies, said in an interview with Izvestia that much should not be expected from the trilateral meeting yet. She added that this is the first attempt to talk at a technical level by those who are supposed to advance further agreement.

— The composition of the delegation suggests that the negotiations will be very tough, because first of all, the territorial issue will be discussed — the most difficult in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Therefore, I would not have high hopes," the expert notes.

Victoria Zhuravleva also did not rule out that the meeting could end in a scandal.

Malek Dudakov, an American political scientist, also points out that the context of the trilateral negotiations encourages cautious optimism.

— The issues that will be discussed will relate to the really fundamental problems that caused the current Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, of course, a huge number of hawks on both sides of the Atlantic will try to disrupt the negotiation process, which is already happening," he notes.

Dudakov draws attention to the fact that the European "war party" is again trying to seize Russian tankers, and Democrats have become more active in the United States, threatening Donald Trump with impeachment — all of them are not interested in de-escalating the conflict. For this reason, the American expert believes, it is not worth getting ahead of ourselves.

The recent meeting of the Americans with the Ukrainian side in Davos and the arrival of special envoy of the US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Russia are important steps in the right direction, but this is still an interim result, adds Malek Dudakov.

— It is not known how many more steps need to be taken in order for a real de-escalation to occur. The main issues of the conflict remain the same. The withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of Donbass, the neutral status of Ukraine, and the reduction in the number of Armed Forces following the conflict are the most sensitive and painful moments for both Kiev and European capitals. The United States will have to make a lot of efforts to push through both Ukrainians and Europeans on these issues," the American expert believes.

Frozen assets of Russia in the USA

At the same time, a bilateral meeting will be held in Abu Dhabi between Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries.

During the meeting, they will continue discussing the use of Russian assets frozen in the United States to pay a $1 billion membership fee to the Peace Council and restore territories affected by the fighting in Ukraine after the conflict ends.

This was stated by Yuri Ushakov following talks in the Kremlin on the night of January 22-23. He noted that Russia is ready to send to the budget of the Peace Council $1 billion from Russian assets that were frozen in the United States by the previous administration, "the rest of our frozen reserves in the United States could have been used to restore territories affected by the fighting after the conclusion of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. The discussion on this topic will be continued in the bilateral economic group."

Victoria Zhuravleva noted that Russia's proposal on the use of frozen assets is negotiable and quite adequate, and the United States will probably need time to think about it.

— Whether they accept it or not will largely depend on how the situation develops in the trilateral negotiations and with the idea of the Peace Council. That is, how the other participants will join the organization, declare their readiness to allocate the same funds, and also what Europe's reaction will be to the possibility of unfreezing Russian assets. This is more of a "stuffing", to which Russia is waiting for a reaction and not the fact that it will be lightning fast, — Victoria Zhuravleva believes.

As Malek Dudakov said, if the Trump administration gives the go-ahead for the allocation of $1 billion to the Peace Council, then the president of the American side will need to send a corresponding decree to the Ministry of Finance.

— Another thing is that a certain political will is needed for this. This will be a very important precedent," the expert pointed out.

He noted that Russia's proposal is very elegant from a diplomatic point of view — if the United States wants Russia to participate in the Peace Council, there is nothing wrong with returning Russian assets back.

— I think this will strengthen the positions of pragmatic realists in Europe, who are also not against resolving issues related to our assets and normalizing trade and economic relations in general. It's just that the Americans in this case can set an example for the European "war party," says Malek Dudakov.