The results of the Davos Economic Forum. What you need to know

For the European Union, which planned to hold an annual forum in Switzerland according to its own scenario, events turned out to be full of unexpected turns. Europe initially failed to shift its focus from Greenland to Ukraine, and after the EU was actually on the verge of a trade war with the United States, the head of the White House, Donald Trump, unexpectedly refused to impose duties in exchange for the deployment of military bases on the island. What important things happened during the four days of the forum is in the Izvestia article.

The quarrel between Europe and the USA

• European and American officials approached the Davos forum with different goals. If the EU expected to discuss guarantees for Kiev and the state of the Russian economy with the prospect of increasing pressure on it through sanctions, the United States immediately began talking about American interests and the need to gain control over Greenland. It was only on the third day of the forum that the US administration made assurances that there were no plans to annex the island by military means.

• Despite the EU's attempts to change the narrative of the forum, the topic of Ukraine faded into the background, and the discussion of the fate of Greenland and possible retaliatory measures from Europe in the event of an equally theoretical military takeover dominated. The EU has repeatedly stated its commitment to the territorial integrity of Denmark. To demonstrate to the United States its intention to defend the sovereignty of this Scandinavian country, eight European Union capitals held demonstration military exercises on the island from January 15 to 17 in order to "strengthen security in the Arctic.

Northern Merger: Trump lashed out at Europe in Davos

Why does the United States still want to get a "piece of ice"?

• In response, Trump threatened states with additional duties of 10% and an increase from the middle of the year to 25%. The EU allowed retaliatory sanctions as part of its own "anti-coercion tool" and actually began preparations for a trade war with the United States: an emergency meeting was scheduled for January 22 in Brussels.

The Greenland Deal

• On the evening of January 21, Trump announced that after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, a solution to the Greenland issue had been found and even the outlines of a deal had been outlined that would allow the United States to deploy parts of the future Golden Dome on the island at its military bases (we discussed the prospects for rebuilding the US missile defense system here). At the same time, the bases themselves will be considered the territory of the United States.

The Europeans were taken by surprise by this news and virtually nullified all the political discussions that had been taking place in Davos up to that point. Americanists point out that this is already a standard Trump tactic — to escalate the situation on the eve of negotiations in order to emotionally exhaust the opponent, and then offer a profitable deal for himself.

Important negotiations: how Russia and the United States approach a new meeting between Putin and Witkoff

At the same time, Europe is still not ready to resume direct dialogue with Russia on Ukraine.

• Trump refused to impose duties on European countries that conducted exercises in Greenland, and, according to foreign press reports, he agrees to settle for a military and economic presence on the island.: Trump himself said that the United States would not have to pay for the deployment of military bases. At the same time, Rutte said that the island's affiliation to Denmark was not discussed, but it was not disputed either.

• Analysts say that the deployment of American bases in Greenland can be done by analogy with the Guantanamo Bay military base in Cuba, which is a zone of "legal vacuum". The Cuban authorities do not have access to the base because it is the territory of the United States. At the same time, torture and executions prohibited by the US Constitution and international conventions were used at the base and, in particular, in the prison for prisoners of war located on its territory. The US administration has stated that the constitution does not apply to this territory, since it is actually located outside the United States.

• If the United States follows the same principles in Greenland, it may pose risks to the island's ecology. The United States already had experience with deploying a nuclear reactor at its base in Greenland — after the base was closed in the late 1960s, potentially dangerous radioactive waters remained on the territory. Also, when creating an existing American base, it is possible to forcibly relocate the indigenous population of the island, as was the case when the Americans deployed the Thule air base in Greenland (now the Pituffik space base).

Ice on the head: how the Greenland crisis is hitting Ukraine

Kiev is losing support due to the conflict between the United States and the EU

Ukraine was left without attention

• Against the background of the threat to the territorial integrity of a NATO ally country, the issue of support for Ukraine has faded into the background. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, who previously had high hopes for Davos and a personal meeting with the US president, refused to attend the forum in the early days. He arrived in Davos only on January 22, the day after Trump publicly announced his intention to meet with Zelensky.

• The meeting between the leaders of the United States and Ukraine lasted less than an hour and was held behind closed doors. After the conversation with Zelensky, Trump said only that the meeting was "good" and that both sides of the conflict want it to end. After the departure of the American leader, Zelensky attacked Europe with criticism: he declared its inability to protect Greenland and that the EU could not have a decent army without the participation of Ukraine.

• The most difficult issue of the conflict resolution plan is the condition for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass, which Zelensky strongly opposed. It was this topic that was supposed to dominate the face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the United States and Ukraine. Neither Zelensky nor Trump provided any specifics about the meeting, but it is likely that the negotiation process was restarted, as Kiev announced two-day talks in the UAE with the participation of representatives of Russia and the United States. Zelensky had previously stated that he would attend the forum only if there were "real results for Ukraine" on the agenda.

Show an alternative: Israel against Turkey and Qatar's participation in the Peace Council

Trump's initiative is also causing skepticism among European allies, but Washington continues to promote the idea.

• On the eve of Zelensky's visit to Davos, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Greenland issue does not concern Russia, and allowed the use of Russian assets frozen in the United States to restore territories affected by the Ukrainian conflict. American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow on January 22 to discuss the terms of the peace agreement. According to the special envoy of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff, the initiative of the meeting came from Russia.

"Peace Council"

• Trump used the Davos forum as a platform to promote the new international organization he created, the Peace Council, which was announced on January 16. The Council was one of the points of the US plan to resolve the conflict in the Gaza Strip and was supposed to oversee the region during the transition period. But after Trump's statements that the UN has proved ineffective in conflict resolution, it became obvious that the "Peace Council" is seen as an alternative to the UN.

The idea alarmed the leaders of European countries and Canada. France, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia declined to join the council, while Canada, China and Russia said they were studying the proposal. It is known that the United States has sent invitations to about 60 countries. Later, information appeared in the press that American diplomats were advised to call the "Peace Council" not a substitute for the UN, but only a complementary organization, and also not to mention the $1 billion contribution for permanent membership.

Hungary, Belarus and Uzbekistan were among the first to accept invitations to join the council. Ukraine, which was also invited to participate in the council, found itself in a difficult situation because, on the one hand, it needs the help of the United States and is trying to maintain good relations with the Trump administration, and on the other, it has to maintain solidarity with its main allies in Europe. The latter's vote prevailed, and Zelensky rejected the proposal, allegedly because of the invitation of the Russian Federation.

• The agreement with the United States at the Davos forum was signed by 19 countries, including the self-proclaimed Kosovo, and several more states declared their readiness to join. Only two EU countries, Bulgaria and Hungary, were among the signatories. The number of participants in the ceremony turned out to be less than announced: a few hours before the event, the press reported that representatives of 30 states, including Egypt, would take the stage with Trump.

When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• the Americanist Malek Dudakov;
• the American writer Dmitry Drobnitsky.