The infectious disease specialist estimated the probability of a pandemic of "Disease X" in 2026

Scientists have stated that a global pandemic of "Disease X" could be waiting for us in 2026. The list of potential threats includes monkeypox, rubella, avian influenza and the Oropuche virus. Andrey Pozdnyakov, PhD, infectious diseases specialist at INVITRO, told Izvestia on January 21 how realistic their forecasts are.

"The possibility of a pandemic always accompanies humanity. No one can completely exclude the possibility that any virus will mutate and acquire the ability to spread globally, which will lead to universal susceptibility and, as a result, to a pandemic. It is important to understand that pandemics are most often caused by airborne viruses. Other transmission routes can lead to outbreaks of various scales, but, as a rule, not to pandemics," he explained.

It is noted that HIV can be an exception, but it took decades for it to spread around the world.

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The peak incidence is expected in January 2026, epidemiologists have warned.

Among the viruses mentioned by scientists, avian influenza poses a potential pandemic threat. It is dangerous and is transmitted mainly by airborne droplets, and to a lesser extent by contact. However, to date, avian influenza has not overcome the interspecific barrier: it remains a threat primarily to birds, and human infection is accidental, since humans are not the main hosts of this virus.

"If the virus starts to be effectively transmitted from person to person and overcomes the interspecific barrier, the immune system of most people will be susceptible to it, which may become the source of a pandemic. At the same time, this virus is under constant epidemiological surveillance, and in case of its adaptation to humans, antiviral drugs exist and the production of flu vaccines has been established," the doctor explained.

Rubella, he said, poses no threat of a pandemic. This is a well-known and well-studied virus, against which there is an effective vaccine. The disease is usually mild; it poses a serious danger only to pregnant women who first become infected with rubella during pregnancy. Therefore, it is important to vaccinate girls before reproductive age, as well as boys, to prevent the spread of infection.

The Oropuche virus is also highly unlikely to cause a pandemic, as it is transmitted through insect bites and does not spread from person to person. It can cause local outbreaks, but not a global pandemic.

"Monkey pox is of particular interest from an epidemiological point of view. Although airborne transmission is possible, infection is much more likely to occur through close contact. If the virus becomes easier to transmit by airborne droplets and at the same time increases its pathogenicity, the situation may become dangerous. However, this pathogen is also being actively monitored, so the probability of a pandemic in 2026 is extremely low," concluded Pozdnyakov.

The Reuters news agency, citing the director of the Center for Respiratory Tract Infections at the Pasteur Institute in France, Marie-Anne Ramey-Welty, reported on November 27 that a mutation of the avian influenza virus could allegedly lead to a larger pandemic than COVID-19 if the pathogen could be transmitted between humans. At the same time, it was noted that at the moment the world is better prepared for such a threat due to the availability of ready-made vaccine options and established methods.

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