Trump is not going to annex Canada, contrary to his statements. And here's why

As US President Donald Trump increasingly tries to take control of Greenland, his similar statements about Canada are increasingly being recalled. A year ago, he often referred to his northern neighbor as the 51st state and promised its residents better conditions if they joined the United States. However, now Trump is not voicing threats to Ottawa, despite its apparent rapprochement with Beijing. Why the White House is not considering the possibility of annexing Canada is in the Izvestia article.

What is Trump threatening Canada with?

• Trump began publicly voicing his ideas about Canada joining the United States shortly after winning the presidential race in 2024. During speeches and on social media, he periodically referred to Canada as the 51st state, while hinting at a possible takeover of Greenland and Panama. This was preceded by months of promises to impose duties on Canadian goods and demands to increase defense spending.

• Trump explained his claims to Canada by saying that the people of the country would only benefit from this. He promised Canadians lower taxes, tariff abolition, and security guarantees. At the same time, Trump claimed that the idea of Canada joining the United States was shared by Canadians themselves. In Alberta and Quebec, there are indeed parties demanding to join the United States, but polls have shown that up to 22% of respondents really support Trump's proposal.

• After taking office, Trump fulfilled his intention to impose tariffs on Canada, prompting retaliatory actions from Ottawa. Pressure from the United States caused a rise in Canadian patriotism and became one of the main topics in the 2025 elections, as a result of which the post of Prime Minister of Canada passed from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney. After that, Trump softened his rhetoric. He stated that "it takes two people to tango," and acknowledged that Canada's accession to the United States is unlikely to take place until the people of the country want it themselves.

• Although Trump no longer referred to Canada as the 51st state for the rest of 2025, in early 2026 his administration turned its attention back to its northern neighbor. Against the background of the White House's insistent statements about Greenland's annexation, the American media reported that Trump is still ready to make demands to Canada that no previous administration before him considered acceptable to voice.

Why does Trump need Canada?

• First of all, Trump needs to talk about Canada's accession to ensure a negotiating position. In a situation where one country allows itself to be absorbed by another, it becomes easier for it to make demands and defend its national interests. The other side has to look for reciprocal proposals that will help get rid of these unlikely, but still threats. Even if they are not taken seriously, political rivals within the country can take advantage of this and accuse the current government of inaction.

• Trump's demands on Canada initially included trade concessions to correct the trade imbalance and increased border security to prevent illegal drug trafficking. Trump also wanted Canada, like all other NATO members, to increase spending on national defense so that the United States would cease to be, in fact, the only donor to the alliance and would no longer support it alone. Recently, Trump has been able to expand on the requirements and point out Canada's vulnerability in the Arctic. This is how the US president justifies his claims to Greenland, while Canada, located in the ranks, may also seem insufficiently protected to the White House and therefore threatening the United States from the north.

• Another reason for Trump's claims to Canada are rare earth metals. This version was put forward by the country's previous Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates Canada's reserves at 830,000 tons, while the government itself claims reserves of 15.2 million tons, which is the third highest in the world after China and Brazil. At the same time, Canada itself does not produce any critically important metals, only individual exploration projects without commercial production are conducted on its territory.

In a negative tone: Canada is moving closer to the EU amid conflicts with the United States

Trump's tariff policy is turning allies against him

• Rare earth metals are indeed Trump's concern. The undisputed leader in their reserves and production is China, which uses them as a trump card in its trade confrontation with the United States. The threat to disrupt the supply of certain metals has already allowed Beijing to achieve some concessions from Washington, which is now forced to look for an opportunity to get rid of dependence on Chinese imports.

• Trump's pressure on Canada led to its turn towards China. In January, Carney made the first visit to Beijing for Canadian prime ministers since 2017. He agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping on gradual tariff concessions, which so far relate only to electric vehicles and agricultural products, but in the future may expand and strengthen the partnership between the two countries. Canada and China began to openly establish relations, which soured after the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou on an American warrant in 2018.

Will Trump annex Canada

• Although Canada is gradually falling out of the orbit of the United States, Trump has not yet resorted to his past rhetoric against her for a number of reasons. This is primarily due to his more pressing project to subjugate Greenland. His public statements and the actions of the administration show how much Trump is interested in taking control of the island. It would be extremely wasteful and dangerous to spread attention on Canada at this time, as it would encourage the European opponents of the United States to take even more decisive action. One can recall how, in the months before the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Trump abandoned most other foreign policy issues and escalated the situation only around this country.

• Although Trump speaks directly about the possible capture of Greenland, it will be much more difficult to conduct exactly the same campaign against Canada. If the island is perceived by many as a no-man's-land, which is almost already torn off from Denmark and has no protection, then Canada remains a full-fledged self-governing country capable of self-defense. If Greenland can still be bought, then Canada owns itself and there is simply no one to pay for it. It is for this reason that Trump's talk about the 51st state remains only a threat and an instrument of pressure that does not lead to a real redrawing of political maps.

In addition, any even-numbered year in American politics is a year of elections and focus on domestic affairs. A long, sluggish attempt to bring Canada under its control, which does not lead to concrete results, will not be of interest to voters in the same way as the economy, gasoline prices and migrants. Trump could afford any foreign policy project if he had strong support in Congress, but the Republican Party is increasingly facing the prospect of losing its majority in both chambers. Talking about a hypothetical annexation of Canada, when the Greenland saga has not yet ended, will eventually turn into a burden for the Trump party, which it is better to get rid of as soon as possible rather than wait until it becomes a reason for sharp criticism of the Democrats.