Experts assessed the consequences of mandatory salary indexation for businesses

In Russia, amid a slowdown in the economy and a cooling labor market, a bill on mandatory wage indexation in the commercial sector is being discussed at least at the inflation rate. On January 22, Ilona Platonova, analytics manager at Adviros HR company, and Mikhail Tuzov, Director of analytics at the HR company, told Izvestia about the possible consequences of the initiative for business and employment.

According to their estimates, the labor market has been gradually normalizing since the fourth quarter of 2025: the growth rate of wages offered is decreasing amid falling demand from employers. The period of active growth in household incomes occurred in 2023-2024, while signs of economic cooling intensified at the end of 2025.

At the same time, the practice of wage indexation is already widespread. According to a survey by the Bank of Russia published in the December report on the regional economy, 76% of enterprises plan to index salaries in 2026, mainly to the level of official inflation. In 2025, 83% of companies were indexed. This means that for most organizations, such expenses have already been budgeted. Experts note that if the law is passed, it is the inflation rate that is likely to become the ultimate benchmark for income growth for the majority of employees, although point increases for results, retention of key specialists or career growth will not completely disappear.

At the same time, mandatory indexing incurs additional costs. Automatic salary increases will lead to an increase in vacation pay, insurance premiums, and other related payments, which increases the total cost of labor. According to experts, this reduces the flexibility of a business in managing costs, especially in the context of an increasing tax and credit burden.

"However, in general, the proposed bill reduces the elasticity of business expenses. In the current conditions of economic slowdown, increasing tax and credit burden, the possibilities even for mandatory indexation are significantly narrowing, especially for low-margin companies, as well as representatives of medium and small businesses. At the same time, there are significant regional and sectoral differences. For example, more and more Siberian enterprises, according to the same report by the Bank of Russia, report a complete lack of resources for salary indexation," the experts said.

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The indexation will affect families with children, pensioners, the disabled and other beneficiaries.

If the bill is passed, businesses may have to review their HR strategies. The priority will remain on retaining key employees and motivation for results, but the opportunities for financial incentives may decrease. This can enhance the role of non-material forms of encouragement, such as additional vacation days, while slowing down career promotions. It is also possible to reduce the costs of training, staff development and corporate events, change the revenue structure and revise the bonus systems.

Experts believe that a massive transition to "gray" wage schemes is unlikely, since in 2026 the state will strengthen control over the shadow economy. Instead, companies may more often resort to optimizing the number of staff, as well as outsourcing non-core functions, including IT and legal support.

For some small and medium-sized businesses, the additional burden on the payroll may be critical. According to experts, this will be a test of sustainability and technological maturity: companies that are not ready to automate and restructure processes risk either leaving the market or losing ground to large businesses and the public sector. Among the possible macroeconomic effects, experts cite increased economic consolidation and the formation of an additional pro-inflationary impulse.

On January 19, Yaroslav Nilov, chairman of the Duma Committee on Labor, Social Policy and Veterans' Affairs, announced that the State Duma would consider a bill in the spring session providing for mandatory annual salary indexation of Russians not lower than the inflation rate. It is specified that this is tied to February 1, since the final inflation rate for 2025 will be determined by this date.

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