Downward trend: import substitution defeats parallel imports
Recent estimates regarding the volume of parallel imports show a significant decrease — up to 50%, according to Maxim Topilin, chairman of the relevant State Duma committee. On the one hand, the volume of parallel imports in Russia is steadily decreasing, which many experts consider as a sign of the success of import substitution and the growth of domestic production. On the other hand, this raises concerns about possible shortages in some key industries. Izvestia undertook to consider the causes and consequences of a significant decrease in the share of parallel imports, as well as to assess its impact on various sectors of the economy and development prospects in the coming years.
Import substitution is gaining momentum
Parallel import flows in Russia are steadily decreasing, signaling shifts in the economy. In the first nine months of 2024, the volume reached $45 billion, but in 2025 it dropped to $33-35 billion, said Maxim Topilin, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy. At the same time, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, parallel imports fell from $4 billion per month in 2024 to $2 billion per month in 2025. According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, parallel imports as a whole decreased by 50%.
"The twofold drop in such imports is not only an indicator, but also a direct consequence of both the success of import substitution and the growth of supplies from friendly countries," Alexander Degtyarev, head of FEA Agent JSC (authorized economic operator), member of the Public Council at the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
According to estimates by FEA Agent, the growth of domestic production of medical devices increased by 14% in the first eight months of 2025, machine tools — by 40% for the whole of 2024, and machine—building products - by 15% also the year before last. In general, it is estimated in the tens of percent, the agency notes.
The active growth of domestic production of goods stubbornly displaces gray supply chains, changing the market landscape. The Ministry of Industry and Trade and other departments record successes in key sectors where domestic capacities replace imports.
"The decrease in parallel imports is not just a statistical trend, but an indicator of the profound transformation of the Russian economy," says Vladimir Poklad, Director of the Management Consulting Department at the Business Profile Audit and Consulting Group.
According to his calculations, the real growth of domestic production is behind this reduction.: In the first 11 months of 2025, the output of radio electronics increased by 13%, the production of motor vehicles — by 27.4%, and electronic and optical products — by 35%.
"The drop in parallel imports means that goods that previously had to be imported by roundabout routes are now produced domestically or supplied through direct channels from friendly countries," said Stanislav Mudrov, partner at the business and asset valuation practice at Neo consulting company.
There is a steady decline in parallel imports against the background of GDP growth: over the past three years, GDP has increased by 9.7%, which confirms that the economy has adapted to the sanctions and is increasing its own capacity, the expert notes.
Forecasts for 2026: further decline
Experts agree that the trend towards reducing parallel imports will continue, but its strengthening will also be caused by negative factors. Cooling demand, on the one hand, and tightening state customs control, on the other, will have an impact.
"Parallel imports are expected to decrease further, perhaps at a slower pace than in 2025, but still significantly," Degtyarev predicts.
He notes that in 2026, exports of goods from China, which was a significant supplier of sanctioned goods, will continue to tighten.
According to Irina Svetlova, a leading analyst at the Center for Market Economics, the decrease will be due to the development of domestic production and import substitution policy, which gradually reduces dependence on external supplies.
According to the calculations of the Center for Market Economics, an additional structural factor will be the further deepening of trade and economic cooperation with China. The share of Chinese products in Russian imports is already showing steady growth: in 11 months of 2025, it increased from 57.2% to 58.3% in value terms. The strengthening of China's role will help to replace parallel imports of Western products with direct Chinese supplies.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Federal Customs Service.
Prolongation of the mechanism: balance of prices and scarcity
The government's decision to extend parallel imports for 2026 ensures predictability for businesses and consumers. It serves as a safety valve against price spikes in sensitive segments, economists agree.
— The extension of this mechanism is a balanced decision that makes it possible to balance supply and demand in the consumer market, not allowing prices to be inflated in the absence of alternatives, — emphasizes the head of JSC "Foreign Economic Activity Agent".
For businesses, this signal about the predictability of the rules makes it possible to plan medium-term supplies and production development, complements the market participant.
The extension for another year seems reasonable, since in a number of positions there is no adequate alternative to goods produced in unfriendly countries, said Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the Presidential Academy.
At the same time, he adds, any liberalization of imports, including the mechanism of parallel imports, increases competition in the domestic market and, as a rule, contributes to lower consumer prices.
Industries under attack: risks and winners
Some sectors benefit from replacing parallel imports with supplies from friendly countries, but electronics and pharmaceuticals remain vulnerable. The adaptation is uneven, with a focus on China and localization.
— It is hardly possible to say that some industries benefit from replacing parallel imports with supplies from friendly countries, since this substitution is still forced, - Degtyarev believes.
Supplies of equipment for many industries have been replaced by supplies from China, the specialist notes.
Manufacturers in certain industries can indeed benefit from replacing parallel imports with supplies from friendly countries, however, such benefits are often concentrated on the side of producers, while the risks, primarily price risks, are more borne by domestic consumers, says Alexander Firanchuk.
Currently, the situation with dependence on imports from unfriendly countries varies greatly by industry. The most illustrative example is pharmaceuticals. Since 2021, the share of imports in domestic consumption of pharmaceutical products has not shown a decrease and still stands at about 50%, with about 90% of imports coming from unfriendly countries.
"Under current realities, the risks of shortages are present in radio electronics and industries that consume its products, in the food industry, which is based on technology and equipment from European manufacturers, and in pharmaceuticals," says Elena Tkachenko, professor at the Department of Economics and Management of Enterprises and Industrial Complexes at St. Petersburg State University.
According to surveys conducted by St. Petersburg State University, about 15% of respondents in the Northwestern Federal District noted a critical dependence on technological imports from unfriendly countries, which also indicates potential opportunities for further development of import substitution.
Expert assessments: not everything is so clear
Data on the dynamics vary, but the downward trend is obvious, influenced by sanctions and the reorientation of chains. Re-exports through the EAEU are decreasing, reinforcing the conclusions.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, parallel imports fell in January – November 2025, the volume of parallel imports amounted to $20.9 billion, which is 45% lower than in the same period of 2024 ($37.9 billion), Alexander Daniltsev, director of the HSE Institute for Trade Policy, cites figures. His forecast for 2026 remains generally negative, although the practice of parallel imports will continue.
— According to the World Trade Organization, for 11 months of 2025, the total volume of imports to the Russian Federation decreased by 13.9% in dollar terms compared to the same period in 2024, — says Irina Svetlova. — A similar, but even more pronounced negative trend is observed in imports from traditionally friendly intermediary countries in the supply of products of Western origin.
The forecasts of Gleb Savin, Associate Professor of the USUE Department of Logistics and Commerce, confirm the transformation: by the end of 2026, the parallel import mechanism will be significantly reduced to 15-20% of the current volume, which will complete the market transformation without critical price spikes.
"In 2026, it is expected that more stable and automated financial channels for cross—border payments will appear, which can stabilize the cost of logistics," he notes. — At the same time, the state policy will be aimed at protecting domestic producers by excluding from the lists those positions for which serial import substitution will be established by this time.
Another important factor, in his opinion, will be the development of infrastructure in intermediary countries. In 2026, logistics hubs in the CIS, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia may reach their capacity limits or face the need for deep modernization. This will force importers to look for new routes or switch to more expensive shipping methods, which will affect the final cost of premium goods.
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