The expert assessed the risks of reducing demand for family mortgages after February 2026

By the end of 2025, the volume of family mortgage issuance in Moscow increased by about 30% and amounted to about 579 billion rubles. Alexandra Mamokhina, Director of Strategic Marketing and Product at Level Group, told Izvestia on January 21 about how the change in the terms of the program from February 1, 2026 may affect further market dynamics.

According to her, in late 2025 and early 2026, the market is showing increased activity in the family mortgage segment. This is due to the upcoming changes in the terms of the program: from February 1, 2026, only one family mortgage can be issued for one family. Currently, each parent has the right to use the program, which actually allows for two preferential loans for one family. At the same time, in January 2026, a number of banks suspended the issuance of family mortgages, explaining the need to adapt to the new rules.

"Most likely, all interested clients, for the most part, will have time to take advantage of the closing window of opportunity. By the end of January 2026, we are likely to see a surge in the issuance of family mortgages. In December 2025, the volume of loans issued in Moscow was 37% higher than in November, and compared to December 2024, it more than doubled," the expert said.

For families who have not yet used the program, the current conditions remain. A family mortgage with a 6% interest rate remains available to families with children under the age of six, as well as families raising a minor child with a disability. The program itself has been extended until 2030.

Forbidden lot: family mortgage is not available to residents of almost half of the regions

The average salary does not allow servicing even a preferential loan in Crimea, Kaliningrad, Krasnodar and other regions.

At the same time, according to the expert, the possibility of introducing differentiated family mortgage rates depending on the number of children is being actively discussed in the second half of 2025. There are no final decisions or deadlines for their adoption yet, but the option of rates at the level of 10-12% per annum for families with one child, 6% for families with two children and 4% for families with three or more children is being considered. It is assumed that as the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decreases, these values may also be adjusted downward.

"More than half of families with children in the Russian Federation are families with one child. The share of such families is 55%, the share of families with two children is 33%, and only 12% are families with three or more children. Thus, the most numerous category of families with one child is under attack by the increased rate. However, for families with two children, the conditions for a family mortgage will remain at the current level, and for families with three or more children it will become more attractive, and it will also allow considering a large loan amount at the same income level," Mamokhina said.

With the introduction of differentiated rates, the demand for family mortgages in general may decrease by 20-30%, which is due to the high sensitivity of buyers to the level of mortgage rates. However, the potential of the program remains significant. Since the launch of the family mortgage, no more than 8% of families in Russia and about 10% of families in Moscow have used preferential terms.

"According to the demographic forecast, the total population of Moscow in the baseline forecast will remain stable until 2046. The total fertility rate will increase. The structure of families will be dominated by large families. The new conditions for the family mortgage will be aimed at supporting this particular category. The program obviously has potential. Especially considering that market rates are still at a fairly high level," the expert concluded.

On January 18, the federal company Floors told Izvestia that in some of Russia's largest cities, the average cost per square meter in the primary housing market increased by more than 15%. Chelyabinsk came in first place, where it grew by 20.4%, Omsk came in second (+16.1%), Nizhny Novgorod came in third (+15.3%), Kazan came in fourth (+15.2%) and Novosibirsk came in fifth (+15%). Moscow (+14.9%), Voronezh (+14.5%), Perm (+14.2%), Volgograd (+10.9%) and Yekaterinburg (+10.7%) are also in the top ten. In other metropolitan areas, the increase in the average price per square meter in housing under construction did not exceed 10%. So, in Krasnodar it was only 8.4%, in St. Petersburg - 7%, Ufa — 6.7%, Krasnoyarsk — 4.7%, Rostov-on-Don — 3.3%. The most insignificant increase was recorded in Samara — only 1.9%.

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